30-year mortgage rates increase - When will they fall? | Today's mortgage and refinance rates, March 19, 2026

Mortgage interest rates jumped according to Bankrate data. Rates for 30-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans rose.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold its overnight rate at the latest meeting on March 17 and 18. With the war in Iran and the rising price of oil, inflation is rearing its ugly head again. As inflation rises, the chances of another Fed rate cut coming soon grow more unlikely.

The Fed has an impact on mortgage rates, but it's not as direct as the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond. This yield has risen recently due to rising oil prices and concerns over U.S. stability. Between that yield and the rate charged, there’s what’s called a “spread” of typically around an additional 2%. This spread changes as lenders assess risk.

“Over the past 10 business days, a dual surge in benchmark yields and risk premiums has eliminated nearly all room for downward movement in mortgage pricing,” says Ken Johnson, Walker Family Chair of Real Estate at the University of Mississippi. “The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes (the primary floor for mortgage rates) has climbed steadily, while the spread (the risk-premium investors demand for holding mortgage-backed securities) has simultaneously increased.” Johnson explains that these will likely nudge rates higher in the short-term.

At its meeting today, the FOMC laid out their economic projections for the short- and long-term health of the economy. These projections show the Fed is still expecting one more rate cut this year, as well as one cut in 2027.

Mortgage rates change all the time. Sometimes they can swing wildly from day-to-day and lender-to-lender. That’s why Bankrate created the Mortgage Rate Variability Index. This index changes every week to show how much rates are fluctuating and the range of rates between lenders.

Rates accurate as of 03/19/2026.

Today's average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.33 percent, an increase of 0.10 basis points over the last week. This time a month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 6.24 percent.

At the current average rate, you'll pay $74.51 for every $100,000 you borrow. That's up $0.78 over what it would have been last week.

The average 15-year fixed-mortgage rate is 5.64 percent, up 0.08 basis points over the last week.

Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost approximately $98.94 per $100,000 borrowed. That may put more pressure on your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage would, but it comes with some big advantages: You'll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.

The average rate on a 5/1 ARM is 5.49 percent, up 0.07 basis points over the last week.

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. To put it another way, the interest rate can change periodically throughout the life of the loan, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for those who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.

Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 5.49 percent would cost approximately $68.06 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan's terms.

The average jumbo mortgage rate is 6.35 percent, up 0.08 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the, the average rate on a jumbo mortgage was lower, at 6.47 percent.

At the current average rate, you'll pay $0.63 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That's up $0.63 per $100,000 compared to last week.

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 6.62 percent, unchanged 0.00 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower, at 6.54 percent.

At the current average rate, you'll pay $68.06 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That's up $0.07 from what it would have been last week.

How to get a low mortgage rate today

Set yourself up for success by focusing on these areas when applying for a mortgage:

• Improve your credit score. While you can get a mortgage with a lower score, the best rates go to borrowers with a 780 or higher. Here are some ways to help increase your score before you apply for a mortgage.
• Raise your down payment. If you're buying a home and able to afford it, consider making a higher down payment. Just like with a higher credit score, you'll get a lower rate with a higher down payment.
• Shop around. Compare mortgage offers from at least three different lenders. Different lenders have different rates and fees at any given time. By shopping around, you could save thousands of dollars.
• Lock your rate. In a volatile market, locking your rate can help you secure a low rate before rates rise again. Talk with your lender about the options and associated fees.

Mortgage rates have slowly declined since the end of 2025, with the 30-year rate averaging 6.18% for the first two months of 2026. For the same period last year, rates were hovering above 7%.

This drop in rates has been slow and may hold steady where it is. Bankrate projects that the average rate for 2026 will be around 6.1%. Rates may drop as low as 5.7%, but could also rise to 6.5% throughout the year.

One thing is for certain: if rates go lower, it will open up more opportunities for people to buy or refinance.

Learn more: Bankrate’s 2026 mortgage rates forecast

• Latest mortgage news this week
• Compare current mortgage rates for today

The mortgage rates in this story are derived from our national rate and APR averages. Bankrate's mortgage rates include these national rate and APR averages; Bankrate Monitor (BRM) National Index rate averages; and “top offers”:

• National rate and APR averages: Displayed as daily and weekly averages, these rates and APRs are primarily collected from the 5 largest banks and thrifts across hundreds of markets in the U.S.
• Bankrate Monitor (BRM) National Index rate averages: Reported weekly, this long-standing survey collects rates from banks and thrifts across hundreds of markets in the U.S.
• "Top offers": Displayed daily and weekly, these are an average of the rates listed first on our rate tables as advertised by our partners. The averages shown are based on the loan type and term selected.

You can compare national average mortgage rates to top offers to see how much you could save when shopping on Bankrate. Learn more about Bankrate's how we collect, display and report mortgage rates.