Mortgage rate forecast: April 2026

Mortgage rates ended March near their highest levels since mid-2025. In an ominous sign for the spring homebuying season, it’s possible that they’ll keep rising, mortgage experts say.

Blame the war in Iran, which has sent oil prices soaring in recent weeks. Higher energy prices translate to both higher inflation and rising 10-year Treasury yields. And both of those things exert upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Without concrete progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East, mortgage rates will continue to sit above 6.5% — and could move higher on further bad news.

— Stephen Kates Financial Analyst, Bankrate

As of March 25, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.44%, according to Bankrate’s weekly lender survey. 

“Last month, we were counting the reasons mortgage rates would head lower. Now, we are looking for reasons for them to stop rising,” says Stephen Kates, Bankrate’s financial analyst. “Concerns over geopolitical instability and rising inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level since summer 2025. Without concrete progress toward de-escalation in the Middle East, mortgage rates will continue to sit above 6.5% and could move higher on further bad news.”

Will mortgage interest rates go down?

Most housing economists say it’s unlikely rates will fall much farther. The Mortgage Bankers Association calls for rates to stay above 6% for the rest of 2026, but Fannie Mae’s latest forecast calls for them to fall to 5.7% by the end of the year. (A caveat: That forecast was released before the recent runup in rates.)

Mortgage rates are nothing if not volatile, though, and other factors are pushing them higher — especially the war in Iran.

“The primary driver behind this month’s volatility continues to be the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “Concerns over the war in Iran and its impact on global energy prices have pushed oil toward $100 a barrel, fanning inflation fears and driving the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest levels since last fall. As a result, the ‘psychological’ sub-6% environment we briefly enjoyed in February has been replaced by a more cautious, high-volatility climate.”

Current mortgage rate trends

The median national home price clocked in at $398,000 in February, a record high for the month, according to the National Association of Realtors. “For the spring housing market, this increase in mortgage rates acts as a significant headwind,” Sturtevant says. “For now, the rebounding spring homebuying season many had been hoping for is being tempered by these external pressures, leading to a more limited and uncertain market environment.”

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What to do if you’re getting a mortgage this year

• Improve your credit score. The lowest mortgage rates go to borrowers with the highest credit scores, usually at least 780. A lower credit score won’t prevent you from getting a loan, but it can make all the difference between getting the best possible rate and more costly borrowing terms.
• Save up for a bigger down payment. Putting more money down upfront can help you obtain a lower mortgage rate, and if you put down at least 20% of the purchase price, you’ll avoid mortgage insurance, which adds costs to your loan. If you’re a first-time homebuyer and can’t cover a 20% down payment, there are loans, grants and programs that can help. The eligibility requirements vary by program but are often based on factors like your income.
• Understand your debt-to-income ratio. Your DTI ratio compares how much money you owe to how much money you make, specifically your total monthly debt payments against your gross monthly income. Not sure how to figure out your DTI ratio? Bankrate has a calculator for that.

FAQs

• How are mortgage rates determined?

  Mortgage rates are not directly set by any one entity; they grow from a complicated mix of economic factors. Lenders typically set their rates based on the return they need to make a profit after accounting for risks and costs. The Federal Reserve gets a lot of attention, but it doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, either. The closest proxy for mortgage rates is the 10-year Treasury yield: Historically, the typical 30-year mortgage rate has been about 2 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury yield. But since the pandemic, that “spread” has been closer to 3 percentage points.

• When should I refinance my mortgage?

  Deciding when to refinance is based on many factors. If rates have fallen since you took out your mortgage, refinancing might make sense. A refi can also be a good idea if you’ve improved your credit score and could lock in a lower rate. A cash-out refinance can accomplish that as well, plus give you the funds to pay for a home renovation or other expenses.