Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Sept. 5 - 11, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 0% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 40% |
| Go down | 60% |
Mortgage rates will drop, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate this week.
Of those polled, 60 percent of respondents predict rates will decrease, and the remaining 40 percent expect rates to hold steady. No one predicts rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.47 percent as of Sept. 4, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down slightly from 6.48 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Sept. 5 - 11, 2024
| Go up | 0% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 40% |
| Go down | 60% |
Bad economic news pushed the equity markets down significantly on Tuesday. The money from all that selling must go somewhere. My guess is the bulk of it will be parked temporarily in 10-year Treasurys.
— Ken Johnson, University of Mississippi
0% say rates will go up
60% say rates will go down
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will continue to decline this week as new economic data points to a weakening employment sector and economy. Job openings for August were reported at the lowest level in 3.5 years. In addition, recent data on manufacturing and construction add to the picture of an economy that is weaker than expected. Falling oil prices also help to reduce inflationary pressures.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m expecting rates to continue their slow drift lower as traders weigh the macroeconomic landscape and the updated unemployment situation.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi.
Bad economic news pushed the equity markets down significantly on Tuesday. The money from all that selling must go somewhere. My guess is the bulk of it will be parked temporarily in 10-year Treasurys. This will drive the price of the 10-year up while driving down its yield. Mortgage rates tend to follow 10-year Treasury yields. Thus, next week we should expect long-term mortgage rates to decline.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go down. Here's a parody of "Shock Me," the 1977 Kiss hit. "Shock me. (Make it look better.) Shock me. (Put on the option layer.) Shock me. (Trades will come together.)" Mortgage rates will find a way to drop, but only due to shockingly bad news.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
Economic data continues to show weakness, particularly around the labor market. Today's JOLTS report is more confirmation as job openings declined to levels not seen since 2021, and this follows last week's reporting that over 818,000 jobs reported earlier did not happen. Expect Friday's employment report to be another miss.
40% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Manufacturing data was a bit soft. Friday (Sept. 6) has the BLS Employment Situation Report, which always is a potential market mover.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
Rates will hold steady this week with a mixed bag of economic reports, causing some movement during the week, but exit the week roughly unchanged from when we started the week.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Unchanged. Rates are at their lowest levels over the past 12 months. The market has reacted to the information coming out of the last Fed meeting, and rates have fallen about 40 basis points since the end-of-July meeting. While I believe rates might fall slightly, I expect rates to be basically unchanged this week.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Rates remain steady while markets anticipate the size of cuts by the Federal Reserve.