Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Nov. 25-Dec. 2, 2020

Rate trend index

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In the week ahead (Nov. 25-Dec. 2), Bankrate's expert panel mostly expects rates to stay the same. 64 percent predicted rates will hold, while 27 percent expected rates to rise and 9 percent said rates will fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Vaccine optimism is offset by virus case reality.

— Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors

27% say rates will go up


Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. Stimulus and vaccine hopes will provide a minor boost to bond yields and mortgage rates.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Higher. Bond yields headed slightly lower due to the rise in COVID cases but quickly reversed when more vaccine data came out. Oil is rising, and the stock market is at an all-time high as I write this. The bond market, oil, and stocks are looking at a 2021 world where we have a vaccine and better treatments for COVID-19. This in itself is a job package because once we can walk the earth freely again, those 10 million Americans that still don't have a job due to COVID-19 will have a pathway for employment over the next 2 years.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

With bond traders being off for the Thanksgiving holiday, it doesn’t take much to move bond markets on weeks like this. Positive news on COVID-19 vaccines and better than expected purchasing manager’s indices on Monday have stocks rallying and bonds selling off a bit. With so few traders working this week I expect this trend to continue through the holiday with slightly higher rates this week.

9% say rates will go down


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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Rates are headed lower with the COVID-19 uptick and no movement on financial aid to struggling Americans when they need it most.

64% say unchanged


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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

With the holiday upon us it should be a quiet week for the markets. I would expect rates to stay the same.

Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

Flat. Vaccine optimism is offset by virus case reality.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Rates will remain unchanged. 10-year Treasuries have held pretty steady in the 8-handle for the last week. Long-term mortgage rates, therefore, should remain unchanged.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY

Unchanged.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go nowhere. Here's a parody based on 1974, The Hues Corporation hit song "Rock the Boat." "So, Joe wants to know where Trump got the notion. Said he'd like to know where he got the notion. To rock the boat, don't rock the boat, Yellen." With the market fearing inflation and lockdowns, which one happens? Trading suggests a balanced position between the two.Yellen's "don't rock the boat" approach makes bonds mellow towards Biden's Treasury pick.

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. With market participation thinned by the Thanksgiving holiday markets become less predictable. With rates remaining low our overall attention should be on home prices which are +6.6% year/year. Markets are about 4 things: supply, demand, price, and elasticity. Local governments restrain supply causing prices to rise. This has bad effects both economic and social.

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Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA

Unchanged. The 10 year is trading at .877 percent, which is virtually unchanged from last week. As the White House transitions the new administration will take shape and so far the market likes what it is seeing. Coronavirus will continue to lead the news as cases skyrocket and the country locks down a little more.