Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 15-21, 2024
|Stay the same
Mortgage rates will be dropping this week, according to the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 56 percent of respondents expect mortgage rates to decline. Twenty-two percent predict rates to rise, and another 22 percent say they’ll hold where they are.
The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 7.11 percent as of Feb. 14, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders. This is an increase from 6.89 percent the previous week and the first time this rate has been above 7 percent this year.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Feb. 15-21, 2024
|Stay the same
Mortgage rates [will be] dropping after this past week's over-correction. Objectively: Inflation data was worse than expected but it wasn't that much worse than expected.— Dan Green
22% say rates will go up
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Rates will rise a bit more this week as a strong economy and labor market have slowed the fight against inflation. CPI, which was reported earlier this week, was higher than the markets hoped for, and the PPI data is likely to follow suit.
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The Consumer Price Index delivered a dose of interest rate reality that is pushing mortgage rates higher as well.
56% say rates will go down
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m looking for rates to improve in the upcoming week as traders gain more confidence around the timing of potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio
Mortgage rates [will be] dropping after this past week's over-correction. Objectively: Inflation data was worse than expected but it wasn't that much worse than expected.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Commercial office space problems threaten regional banks. Higher rates are deflating the value of commercial space, bringing into question the solvency of regional banks — the major provider of credit to the sector. This, in turn, will lead to a doveish Fed and perhaps lower rates sooner than we expect. All this comes together to lead to lower long-term mortgage rates for the near future. I might be a little early, but next week mortgage rates [will] go down.
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Down — rate increases may be an overreaction, but not by that much.
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates [will] go down. Here's a parody of Whitesnake’s 1982 hit “Here I Go Again.” “And here rates go again on their own. Going down the bearish road out into the unknown.” The recent rise in rates without conviction suggests a move lower this week.
22% say unchanged–
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. CPI data was higher than expected and sent rates higher. Damage was done on Feb. 13, and rates should be flat for the coming week. Inflation is always the market’s biggest fear.