Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Sept. 12 - 18, 2024

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. [The] latest inflation reading was not good.

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates will go up. Here’s a parody of “Lay Me Down,” the 2014 Sam Smith hit. “Rates don’t want to be here. If they can’t see jobs without fright. Lay them down; who’s right?” Mortgage rates [will] rise sharply as getting to 6 percent is more complex than returning to 6.5 percent.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will continue to decline this week as new economic data points to a weakening employment sector and economy. Job openings for August were reported at the lowest level in 3.5 years. In addition, recent data on manufacturing and construction add to the picture of an economy that is weaker than expected. Falling oil prices also help to reduce inflationary pressures.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

I’m expecting rates to remain on their current trend and continue to move lower in the week ahead.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi.

In the last ten days, equity holders have been selling off positions to the tune of roughly a 2 percent drop in the Dow. Much of this money appears to be heading into 10-year Treasurys as the yield on the 10-year is down almost 30 basis points from the rising demand for these securities. Perhaps, these investors are looking to capture a premium assuming the Fed confirms the first decrease in the Fed Funds rate at their upcoming meeting. Whether or not this is a sound investment play, recent events suggest money is vacating equities and settling in 10-year Treasurys. All this action is driving the price of the 10-year up and its yield down. Accordingly, long-term mortgage rates, with almost certainty, will follow. Next week, we should see a decline in mortgage rates.

Allison Kaminaga

Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI

I expect rates to continue to fall. Today's CPI report showed headline inflation continues to trend downwards, clearing the way for the Fed to start cutting rates next week.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Lower. Last week's BLS Employment Report was market-friendly. Rates will continue to move lower.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

Expect rates to continue lower this week with CPI and PPI readings in line with expectations.

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Inflation pressures are easing and the Fed is starting to cut rates. Both will help sustain the downward trend in mortgage rates.

Denise McManus

Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers

In anticipation of "THE" meeting next week, the market will continue to act favorably, and rates will benefit. Of course, the real rate reduction will happen IF we can get a 0.50 basis point cut from the Fed next week. If we only get 0.25, that is already baked into the rates we are seeing today. Nonetheless, the psychological impact of the Fed finally making a move will help buyers get off the sidelines and start their buying journey. Stay tuned...

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland

Despite core CPI coming in higher than expected, Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are holding ground after several weeks of improvements. In the past couple of years, a higher-than-expected core CPI inflation report would have caused bonds to sell off and mortgage rates to rise. Perhaps markets are convinced that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s target range and will allow the Fed to cut interest rates at the next several meetings. However, looking forward to next week, I think it will be hard for mortgage rates to continue their decline given the improvement of the last several weeks. Mortgage rates [will be] flat in the coming week.

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida

The 10-year Treasury declined nearly 20 basis points over the past week and 30-year fixed mortgage rates declined as signs continue to show economic weakness. Until the CPI reading Wednesday, there was a greater possibility of a 50 basis point cut by the Fed next week. While headline CPI came in at 2.5 percent from 2.9 percent, Core CPI clocked in at 3.2 percent which is still pretty stubborn with shelter leading the way at 5.2 percent. Look for rates to moderate heading into the Fed meeting.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. It’s about time for mortgage rates to find a floor after several weeks of rate declines. Everyone is expecting a 50 basis point cut when the Fed meets next week, and I believe that expectation is already baked into the current rate structure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has also declined over the past several weeks and may be bottoming out. Unless something unforeseen happens during the Fed meeting next week, I think rates will be unchanged over the next couple of weeks.

Robert J. Smith

Head of Real Estate, Advisor Credit Exchange

Rates will linger in the low sixes — unchanged over the next week. Based on this morning’s CPI data, inflation remains under control.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY

Unchanged.