Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Oct. 21-27, 2021

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts mostly expect rates to rise in the week ahead (Oct. 21-27). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 64 percent said rates will go up. Meanwhile, 27 percent said they would stay put and just 9 percent expect them to fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

If you haven’t refinanced to a lower rate yet, don’t let this train leave you at the station.

— James Sahnger, C2 Financial Corporation

64% say rates will go up


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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go up. Here's a parody based on “How Long,” the 2017 hit by Charlie Puth. "How long will this be goin' on? QE's creepin' 'round to leave; While Fed's tellin' us, maybe." Are bearish and bullish expectations widening? If so, volatility expands, and particularly as central banks reduce liquidity.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Long-term mortgage rates will continue to climb in the coming week. The Fed is talking openly about its tapering plans. This is causing yields on 10-year Treasury Notes to rise. In turn, long-term mortgage rates will respond positively to increases in the 10-year.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. Inflation is the watch-word. Corporate earnings calls are full of mentions about it and even the tenor of Fed speeches has grown more hawkish. The 10-year Treasury moving above 1.6 percent for the first time since June is lifting mortgage rates.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Bond yields and mortgage rates have been steadily rising since the last Fed meeting in September when the Fed hinted that the tapering of bond purchases could be announced at their November meeting. We are two weeks away from that meeting and I expect the upward trend in mortgage rates will continue leading into that meeting.

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Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

Up. The economy is not slowing and neither is inflation.

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Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA

Up. The 10-year is trading at 1.637 percent, which is a five-month high. In the minutes from the September Fed meeting, it is widely agreed that they will move up the tapering of the bond buying program to mid-November and/or early December. This is the signal the Fed believes the economy is on the right track, and economic growth and improvement in the labor markets will be gradual and consistent. It also leads to a potential rate hike sooner in 2022 than first expected. The Fed meeting notes from the Nov. 2-3 meeting will shed even more light on their thoughts and plans.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Higher. Paul Tudor Jones stated on CNBC Wednesday morning that inflation is “probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial markets and I think to society just in general.” Excess stimulus continues to inflate asset prices that are not only in the financial markets but in everything we are buying. Housing, automobiles, and just about everything on the shelf continues to climb higher. While we may not see a big swing in rates though next week, we may be at the best levels we will see for a while. If you haven’t refinanced to a lower rate yet, don’t let this train leave you at the station.

9% say rates will go down


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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Lower. Yields have made a decent jump recently. We are getting closer to testing the highs on the 10-year yield at 1.75 percent. The stock market has rebounded quickly as well. Even though GDP estimates are coming down for Q3 we still have a lot of expansionary data to keep the cycle moving. However, unless we break over 1.75 percent we could see a rally in bonds soon from this 1.65 percent level on the 10-year yield.

27% say unchanged


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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Rates should remain steady this week but the bias is still towards moving slightly higher over the coming weeks and months.

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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up.

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. Markets will trade flat until Congress decides how many trillion dollars we need to borrow. That increased debt will not, in the short term, be favorable to rates.