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Mortgage experts mostly think rates will stay steady in the week ahead (April 15-21). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 57 percent said rates will remain the same, while 21 percent think they will rise and another 21 percent expect them to fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Apr 15 - 21
| Go up | 21% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 57% |
| Go down | 21% |
For now I believe things will hold and we are on a sideways trajectory, which is a win!
— Jennifer Kouchis, VyStar Credit Union
21% say rates will go up
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania
Up. Why? Higher inflation and strong growth.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Up. Bond yields and mortgage rates have pulled back a bit but with progressively stronger economic data on the way, the risk is toward the upside.
21% say rates will go down
Gordon Miller
Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina
With the recent results of the monthly inflation numbers being tame we should see a slight drop in rates this week. Inflation fear is what caused them to spike so it appears that concern is a bit misguided at this time.
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA
Trend: Lower. I noted last week that Treasury debt was technically oversold to an extent not seen in decades. When something is this oversold we can see a sharp correction. A correction to an oversold market means more buying. More buying means higher prices. Higher prices mean lower yields. Lower Treasury yields mean lower mortgage rates.
57% say unchanged –
Jennifer Kouchis
Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida
Rates will remain the same. For now I believe things will hold and we are on a sideways trajectory, which is a win! I do however believe that this could all change at any moment, as more news on vaccinations and re-openings, causing some more upward pressure.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
30-year mortgage rates will be unchanged this week. 10-year Treasury yields continue to hold steady around 1.6 percent. The relative calm in the 10-year Treasury market should lead to relative calm in the 30-year mortgage market. Long-term mortgage rates should remain unchanged this week.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY
Unchanged.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida
Mortgage rates go nowhere. Here's a parody based on the 1972 hit song “Diary” by Bread. "We read Bond's DIARY underneath the screen; And started buying the tale; The signs it'd written took some by surprise; They covered trades with scrambled buys." The trend is to higher rates, and the correction to lower rates appears over, so time to sit a spell.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
We’ve seen a nice little rally in mortgage rates over the last week. Perhaps bond markets are beginning to think the rise in inflation and inflation expectations are more transitory than permanent. For the short term it looks like a top on rates is in. However, given the rally of the last few days I don’t expect much further improvement. Mortgage rates will be flat in the coming week.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged. The 10-year treasury is trading at 1.643 percent, which is virtually unchanged from last week. Even with inflation hitting a 2.5 year high, the market and the Fed will wait to see if the inflation numbers hold for more than just a month. Of course employment figures are always at play and it will take time until those numbers are clear.
Shashank Shekhar
CEO, Arcus Lending Inc, San Jose, CA
Mortgage rates to remain the same. About 2 months back, mortgage rates started going up steeply as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices started dropping. By mid-late March, the MBS was oversold and hence we saw mortgage rates improve since. It seems we have reached a point where for a few days MBS may just move in a tight range and hence the mortgage rates will remain mostly stable. For mortgage professionals and borrowers expecting to get back to mid-Feb level mortgage rates, it seems obvious that we are not going to see that anytime soon.
Logan Mohtashami
Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California
Unchanged. For now, this level between 1.64 percent and 1.75 percent on the 10-year yield has been a nice tug of war. Even though inflation data has picked up, and it will pick up in the future as core inflation will grow with rent inflation picking up, the bond market didn't care too much about it. This level will crack, so keep an eye out if we close below 1.64 percent and see follow-through bond-buying or above 1.75 percent with follow-through bond selling.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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