Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 23 - March 29, 2023
|Stay the same||20%|
Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Mar. 23-Mar. 29
|Stay the same||20%|
The mortgage market remained calm amid the banking crises in the US and Europe, and will now do better than Treasuries.— Les Parker CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
20% say rates will go up
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Up. As long as the dust settles in the banking system, the Fed is intent on raising rates further. With inflation still at 6 percent, it is hard to imagine any significant decline in mortgage rates without a big drop in either inflation or economic activity.
60% say rates will go down
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody based on Freda Payne’s 1970 hit, “Band of Gold”: “Now with cash gone/All that's left is a Band of Gold.” The mortgage market remained calm amid the banking crises in the US and Europe, and will now do better than Treasuries.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Chairman Powell’s comments surprised many. The only real question now is will there be an expedited flight to safety (a jump in purchases of 10-year Treasury notes) or not. My guess is yes – there will be an expedited flight to safety. Thus, 10-year treasury prices will go up, resulting in lower 10-year yields, and long-term mortgage rates will follow the 10-year yields lower. Next week, we can expect lower mortgage rates.
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
At the end of the current FOMC meeting, the Fed announced some changes that have bonds rallying and mortgage rates dropping. They mentioned the U.S. banking system, which makes sense given the recent bank failures. They said that “recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.” The implication is that tighter lending conditions will help the Fed in its fight against inflation and may allow them to pause sooner rather than later. They also changed the wording from “ongoing increases in the target range will” to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” I think this will have bond markets pricing in rate cuts sooner than before this statement, which will lead to lower mortgage rates in the coming week.
20% say unchanged–
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: flat. The 25 bps hike was expected. Rates will move with the perception of inflation. The hike is supposed to bring inflation into check.