Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Nov. 25 - Dec. 1, 2021

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts mostly expect rates to rise in the coming week (Nov. 25 - Dec. 1). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 73 percent said rates will go up. Meanwhile, 18 percent said they would hold steady and 9 percent predicted they would drop. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

It should have been a quiet week, however it’s turning into a turkey.

— Gordon Miller, Miller Lending Group

73% say rates will go up

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Long-term mortgage rates will rise in the coming week. Fundamentals are kicking in allowing the 10-year Treasury and long-term mortgage markets to function more normally. Rising 10-year yields this week will cause 30- and 15-year mortgage rates to rise. Long-term mortgage rates will rise in the coming week.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Vote: Up. Inflation remains the key catalyst for the movement in rates. But borrowers can still be thankful that mortgage rates remain lower than anything we’d ever seen prior to August of 2020.

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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. The whipsaw economy.

Robert Brusca photo

Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York


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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Higher. Can tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve help bring down the price of oil and gasoline? While it seems good in intention, the end result won’t have much of an impact. The inflation genie is out of the bottle and while the 10-year Treasury hasn’t hit its highest level in the last 24 months, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) pricing has been spanked. Market sentiment for bonds and MBS continue to deteriorate and with little on the horizon to cause an improvement, look for things to continue to edge higher. The only real unknown is whether Covid comes back into play with the global economy. If it does and we see more lockdowns across Europe and increased cases in the U.S. bring similar actions here, we shall see if it can cause a pullback.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Higher. What an epic reversal in bond yields as soon as Chairman Powell was reappointed. Not only did the 10-year yield sell-off to (currently) 1.68 percent, but the 2-year yield is above my critical level to finally start talking about when the first Fed rate hike will happen. Right now, the critical level is 1.75 percent. If we bounce off that level again and don't break it, yields have room to go down with rates. However, if we can break above that level, bond yields can quickly head up to 1.94 percent. This will be an exciting week coming up to see if we even test that level.

Gordon Miller photo

Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

With the reappointment of Fed chairman Powell it should have been a quiet week, however it’s turning into a turkey. Rates have moved higher and may continue although I would expect a trading range to settle in as inflation becomes the main focus of the markets again.

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Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, Mortgage300 Corporation, Dallas, TX

Rates will be higher. Less than ideal GDP components and hotter inflation numbers have put additional pressure on mortgage bonds. Bonds are sinking and the next bottom would lend itself to higher rates.

9% say rates will go down

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Bonds, especially mortgage-backed securities, have been selling off hard this week leading to the highest mortgage rates since early 2020. The speed of the selloff seems a bit overdone, so I expect it to reverse a bit after the Thanksgiving holiday. Slightly lower rates in the coming week.

18% say unchanged

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Flat. Let’s make this simple: no one knows where the economy is going.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go nowhere. Here's a parody based on the 1969 Sandy Gaye hit recently used in Disney's hit movie Cruella, "Watch the Dog That Brings the Bone." "Bears better watch the dog; Yeah, watch the dog; That brings the bone, that brings the bone." Despite long-term inflation expectations declining, the odds of sustained inflation rose. The certainty of Fed policy under Chairman Powell brings hope of a strong recovery and drops the odds of the mega-spending bill passing. Look for the trend to higher rates to stall over the next week.