Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For June 17-23, 2021
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
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Mortgage experts mostly expect rates to rise in the week ahead (June 17-23). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 58 percent said rates will go up while 25 percent said rates will go down and just 17 percent said they will hold. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Up. That is where they should be going, given levels and inflation rates.
Senior vice president, real estate lending,VyStar Credit Union,Jacksonville, Florida
Rates will go up and then recover. In typical fashion many get jumpy in advance of the Fed meeting, causing upward pressure on mortgage rates. Ultimately, I believe rates will move slightly upwards and recover over the next few days.
Long-term mortgage rates should move up slightly this week. Minutes after the Fed meeting, 10-year Treasury yields started to climb and equity markets were down. Both are signs that financial markets believe the Fed will be taking actions a bit sooner (though not right now) than earlier anticipated. This week’s mortgage rates should rise slightly on this wishy-washy news from the Fed.
At the conclusion of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee the Federal Reserve moved forward, via their dot plot, the timing of their first rate hike from 2024 to 2023 and raised its forecast for core inflation this year from 2.4 percent to 3.4 percent. This is causing a large sell off in both Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which is putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. While I think this may be a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed statement, the sell off is great enough to make me think rates will be higher in the coming week.
Higher. The Federal Reserve came out Wednesday and gave a report that's hotter than what was expected with regards to inflation expectations and the timeline for rate hikes. The immediate reaction caused rates to pop up from recent lows. Time will tell how the markets deal with this but look for rates to be a bit higher than where we have been. But it's hard to see consumer demand declining from here and as such, rates will be pushed along for the ride.
25% say rates will go down
Mortgage banker,Macoy Capital Partners,Los Angeles, CA
Down. The 10-year Treasury has continued to slide over the past 30 days from a high on May 18 of 1.639 percent to 1.499 percent today. The driving force behind the decline is inflation or the lack of continued inflation. It has become clear in the last few days that inflationary pressures are in fact temporary. There is an upcoming Fed meeting, which has everyone on their toes but my bet from previous Fed comments, is that they will take a “hold and see” approach (inflation) before making any concrete statements.
Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on a song from the 1969 Beatles hit, “Get Back.” "Get back, get back. Get back to where you once worked hard." The slow return to the office in many major global cities adds to the growing market consensus that 90 percent return to normal makes the current inflation transitory. Long-term low inflation coupled with near-term high inflation equals lower rates.
Unchanged. After the Fed meeting, bond yields made a push higher, sending yields back to 1.58 percent, which means if this holds, lord, we might be back in that old range again. However, give it some time to work itself out over the next few days because these Fed days can be volatile. It doesn't look like any rate hikes in 2022, no matter how good the economic data is. We have to be mindful that the growth rate in a lot of economic data will peak in 2021 vs. 2022 levels.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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