Mortgage rate predictions are fairly split for the next week, according to the rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 38 percent of respondents predict rates will drop, 31 percent expect rates to rise, and an additional 31 percent say rates will remain stable.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.88 percent as of May 14, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 6.82 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 15 - 21, 2025
| Go up | 31% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 31% |
| Go down | 38% |
For the week ahead, the market won't have any wild swings, but we are in a brief period of relief due to the positive news regarding tariffs between the U.S. and China. I see the rates going down just slightly. But every bit helps!
— Denise McManus, Engel and Voelkers
31% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are moving higher this week as bond yields march higher. The pause in reciprocal tariffs with China has assuaged the threat of stagflation and renewed hopes that the economy will not falter because of the Liberation Day tariffs. This news greatly reduces the odds that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon. Remember, good news for the economy is bad news for mortgages.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
As the stock market continues to rise, and Wall Street sees gains from the tariff negotiations, watch for interest rates to rise as investors remain committed to keeping money in the stock market.
James Sahnger
Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL
Under normal circumstances, favorable inflation data would cause bonds to improve and interest rates to decline. However, with the threat of tariffs previously over 100 percent on many imported goods, the markets were taking a beating. Then the announcement came that talks were opening up with China, and the stock market rallied at the expense of bonds. Look for more excitement to come at the expense of rates.
38% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I expect rates to improve in the week ahead as market volatility subsides and the market continues to be generally range-bound.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
Treasurys have mostly been moving higher in recent days. This is being driven in great part by investors clearing out their positions in these bonds and returning to the equity markets. Thus, Treasury prices are down and yields up. Not surprisingly, mortgage rates are up as well due to these activities. Efficient markets work, and all trades should have cleared by now. Thus, next week’s direction for mortgage rates should be a toss-up. I am going with down slightly on long-term mortgage rates because I think 10-year Treasurys will ultimately settle around 4.00 percent, implying mortgage rates have more downward than upward pressure right now.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. While the call is flat, take note that there are a plethora of potentially market-moving economic releases on Thursday, May 15.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
For the week ahead, the market won't have any wild swings, but we are in a brief period of relief due to the positive news regarding tariffs between the U.S. and China. I see the rates going down just slightly. But every bit helps!
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Lower. The government has announced a couple of big-time trade deals, which has boosted confidence in most quarters. Coupled with lower-than-expected inflation news, I expect mortgage rates to fall slightly.
31% say unchanged–
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think interest rates will remain unchanged this week. The Fed seems to be holding steady until there’s clearer economic data, so I don’t expect any major movement, at least in the short term.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Unchanged. Rates at the long end are getting a little elevated.
Nicole Rueth
Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO
Rates are stuck, hovering just under 7 percent, as the market waits for clarity on how tariffs will actually impact inflation. The Consumer Price Index came in softer, down 0.2 percent month-over-month, yet the bond market barely blinked. The Producer Price Index drops tomorrow and is expected to show a slight decline, too. But none of it moves the needle until we know whether tariffs are going to fuel inflation or stall the economy. The Fed’s hands are tied until that picture sharpens. Flat is the new trend for now.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
The market withstood the inflation data yesterday, so don’t expect much change over the next week, going into the Memorial Day weekend.