Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For June 23-29 | Bankrate

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts are split over where rates are headed in the coming week (June 23-29). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 45.5 percent said rates are going up, 36.4 percent said rates are going down and 18.1 percent said rates will remain the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

The cat's out of the bag. Rates must go up to tame inflation.

— Derek Egeberg, Academy Mortgage

45% say rates will go up


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Derek Egeberg

Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona

The cat's out of the bag. Rates must go up to tame inflation.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Financial markets are all over the place this week, creating a lot of uncertainty. Investors hate uncertainty and will attach premiums to securities to compensate. Additionally, the Fed is not backing off from its efforts to raise mortgage rates and tame the housing market. All of this will translate into upward pressure on home mortgage rates. In the next week, long-term mortgage rates will move higher.

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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. Fannie and Freddie are charging lenders one-half point more for certain closed loan securities. That's a lot on top of inflation.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. There is a tug-of-war between inflation worries and recession worries, with mortgage rates swinging as sentiment shifts. Inflation hasn't been solved though and remains very much the driving force behind economic and interest rate changes, so expect mortgage rates to move back up.

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Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York

Higher.

36% say rates will go down


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Dan Green

CEO, Homebuyer.com, Austin, Texas

Down. In 12 of the last 15 years, mortgage rates peaked on or prior to the summer solstice. Same for 2022.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates will go down. Here's a parody based on The Beatles' 1969 song, “Here Comes The Sun”: "Little fallin', it's been a long, cold, bearish winter. Little fallin', it feels like years since rates fell down. Here comes the sun, 'n now say, it's alright." Economists and analysts keep debating the wealth effect. Look for massive wealth destruction in this cycle to drag on consumption and take rates down.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Lower. Bond yields should rally a tad with oil prices falling, which should help with pricing. The Fed's congressional hearing can be a wild card, but the markets are very on target with energy prices these days.

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Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, Mortgage300 Corporation, Dallas, TX

Rates - will be lower/improve. Increasing recession fears, and possibly the Fed’s recent remarks regarding a strong stance on fighting inflation, are leading to a welcomed rally in bonds. If bonds can continue to trade higher within this current range, we should see some slight improvement in rates.

18% say unchanged


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Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. Rates move with the perception of inflation. What is interesting at present is just how rapidly that perception can change. Week before last the average 30-year fixed varied from 5.55 percent to 6.28 percent. That volatility should abate until July's CPI report. In the longer run there is little limit on how high rates can move.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Unchanged. Since last Wednesday, mortgage-backed securities pricing have modestly improved as the markets continue to digest inflation fears and future economic expectations as consumers and companies alike have to manage their wallets and budgets. The majority of consumers have seen their wallets busted wide open as everything from rents, gas, energy, food, etc., have been hiked up faster than income raises. Something has to give and consumer spending on other areas will curtail. The 10-year Treasury has improved since last week but has been very volatile and shows vulnerability to the latest unfavorable economic reading. One concern for lenders though is that many are predicting that rates will come down in the fourth quarter of this year or first quarter of next year. Should this happen, lenders don't want to get burned on borrowers refinancing out of newly and soon to be originated loans if rates do come down. That said, even if the Treasury rate complex improves, mortgage rates may not improve in tandem.