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Mortgage experts are split over where rates are headed in the coming week (May 26 - June 1). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 38 percent said rates are headed higher and another 38 percent said will drop. The remaining 25 percent expect rates to stay the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 26 - Jun 1
| Go up | 38% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 25% |
| Go down | 38% |
This year's mortgage rates peaked already. Patience will be rewarded.
— Dan Green, Homebuyer.com
38% say rates will go up
Derek Egeberg
Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona
Higher. Rates have increased due in part to the Federal Reserve now becoming a seller, or supplier, of bonds to the market rather than a purchaser. The Fed’s former purchase program forced rates lower. Now that our “Rich Uncle Sam” with the unlimited checkbook has become a seller, the market’s over supply of bonds will continue to push rates higher.
Dick Lepre
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA
Trend: Higher. No one has any idea of where the economy is headed. People are uncertain about inflation, GDP and even housing. Over this year, and most of next, Treasury yields and mortgage rates will continue higher. Inflation is the culprit.
38% say rates will go down
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
A lot of turmoil in the equity markets lately. This is driving a lot of capital to the temporary safety and shelter of 10-year Treasury notes. As their prices rise, in response to the increased temporary demand, yields are falling slightly. The correlation between 10-year Treasurys and mortgage rates is still strong. Therefore, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to fall a bit next week.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com, Austin, Texas
Down. This year's mortgage rates peaked already. Patience will be rewarded.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Mortgage rates have continued their rally over the last two weeks. Today we are looking at the best rates in about a month. Over the last few weeks as stocks continued their selloff, bonds have benefited by the “flight of safety” bid. This is much different than earlier this year when bonds and equities both sold off. If Fed minutes show the Federal Reserve is committed to bringing down inflation, this trend should continue. The economy is slowing and continued monetary tightening by the Fed will continue to slow the economy and hopefully help bring inflation rate down. I see slightly lower rates in the coming week.
25% say unchanged –
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Unchanged. The inflation concerns remain intact but worries about slowing economic growth have increased. The tug-of-war between worries about inflation (higher rates) and an economic slowdown (lower rates) will keep mortgage rates rangebound for a bit.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida
Unchanged. Since March 25 we have had a range in the 10-year Treasury from 2.35 percent to 3.19 percent two weeks ago, and Wednesday morning around 2.75 percent. These are big swings in a relatively short period of time and have been primarily driven by inflation realities and expectations. It's incredible that we started 2022 off at 1.49 percent. As the markets, both equity and bonds look for something to hang on to, many investors have been commenting on how their 401k accounts are now more like 301k accounts as the S&P 500 index has lost over 17 percent since January 1. To say we have had some volatility is an understatement but hopefully we’ll see some stability over the holiday weekend and start of June.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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