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Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Mar 4 - 10
| Go up | 42% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 33% |
| Go down | 25% |
With the next stimulus package winding its way to a conclusion, financial markets are returning to more traditional operations.
— Ken H. Johnson, Florida Atlantic University
42% say rates will go up
Jennifer Kouchis
Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida
Rates will increase. Rates continue their upwards trend with small teases of optimism here and there. A sign of a strengthening economy and positive vaccines news is the culprit, but we know too well this could change at any moment as COVID-19 not completely in our rear window.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania
Up. Stimulus means strong growth ahead.
Gordon Miller
Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina
The direction of rates near term seems to be directly tied to the 10-year Treasury. If yields head over 1.50 then we have a short term problem. If yields can hold or head below 1.40 then rates may have topped out for now. Regardless, the reasoning that stimulus will lead to inflation while the Fed is focused on a post-COVID economy would suggest we will revisit the lows in a month or two. Inflation is not a concern as much as getting the unemployment number back below 3.5.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Mortgage rates will move up in the next week. With the next stimulus package winding its way to a conclusion, financial markets are returning to more traditional operations. Rising 10-year Treasury yields will result in rising long-term mortgage rates in the coming weeks.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA
Up. The 10-year Treasury has continued its climb from its low in the last 30 days of 1.139 percent to 1.478 percent today and it is poised to surpass the high of 1.525 percent just a week ago. You are seeing rates rise in Europe and the ECB says it is not concerned about higher rates so sees no need to do anything, which is also pushing our rates higher. That makes sense when you consider Germany for example who would like rates to rise since their 10-year equivalent is still NEGATIVE .297%. Back at home ADP reported fewer new jobs than expected and we see commercial lending slowing when it should be increasing. There are lots of moving parts right now and I recommend locking your rates sooner than later.
25% say rates will go down
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA
Trend: Lower. While the general tone of both equity and fixed income markets is one of near total uncertainty, the Treasury techs are bullish, offering hope for slightly lower Treasury yields and mortgage rate in the coming week. The Fed wants to keep inflation contained but its ability to do so is limited. Expanded money supply helps the “keep unemployment low” part of its dual mandate but risks the contained inflation part. In the short term we should see correction to market overreaction.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida
Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the 2015 hit from The Vamps, “Wake Up.” "So wake up; The sleeping bear; Bucks know sometimes they'll be afraid; But no more playing safe, be clear." If the dollar wakes up and establishes a strong bull trend, then expect rates to fall, but if the bears roar, rates rise.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Down. Markets will settle down and many lenders will be inclined to compete more on price to keep the applications coming.
33% say unchanged –
Jeff Lazerson
President, MortgageGrader
Unchanged. Rates worsened significantly for the past few weeks over inflation concerns. Fed Chairman Powell is trying to calm the inflation nerves.
Logan Mohtashami
Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California
Unchanged. Last week was one of the most beautiful economic conviction forecasts I have ever done in my life. Last year I talked about how the 10-year yield should start a range between 1.33 percent and 1.60 percent in 2021. If we couldn't do this, something terrible happened with the vaccination process. After we closed above 1.33 percent, the yield rocketed toward 1.60 percent; we are in a range between these two levels right now. We are no longer in a recession; this is where the 10-year yield should be. An overdue stock market correction will drive yields lower when that happens. Still, the rise from 0.52 percent early last August to 1.60 percent recently was very warranted by the economic data America has produced.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
After a swift sell off in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities over the last couple weeks, which caused a spike in mortgage rates, these bonds have found their footing and have rallied a bit this week. However, given the increased inflation expectations in markets it’s hard to see them rallying any further. Hopefully we will settle into a trading range over the next few weeks. I think rates will be flat for the coming week.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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