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Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 15-21, 2024

February 14, 2024
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Mortgage rates will be dropping this week, according to the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.

Of those polled, 56 percent of respondents expect mortgage rates to decline. Twenty-two percent predict rates to rise, and another 22 percent say they’ll hold where they are.

The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 7.11 percent as of Feb. 14, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders. This is an increase from 6.89 percent the previous week and the first time this rate has been above 7 percent this year. 

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Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Week of Feb. 15-21, 2024

Experts say rates will...

Go up 22%
Stay the same 22%
Go down 56%
Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

Mortgage rates [will be] dropping after this past week's over-correction. Objectively: Inflation data was worse than expected but it wasn't that much worse than expected.

— Dan Green

22% say rates will go up

Melissa Cohn photo

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Rates will rise a bit more this week as a strong economy and labor market have slowed the fight against inflation. CPI, which was reported earlier this week, was higher than the markets hoped for, and the PPI data is likely to follow suit.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

The Consumer Price Index delivered a dose of interest rate reality that is pushing mortgage rates higher as well.

56% say rates will go down

Heather Devoto photo

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

I’m looking for rates to improve in the upcoming week as traders gain more confidence around the timing of potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Dan Green photo

Dan Green

CEO, , Cincinnati , Ohio

Mortgage rates [will be] dropping after this past week's over-correction. Objectively: Inflation data was worse than expected but it wasn't that much worse than expected.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Commercial office space problems threaten regional banks. Higher rates are deflating the value of commercial space, bringing into question the solvency of regional banks — the major provider of credit to the sector. This, in turn, will lead to a doveish Fed and perhaps lower rates sooner than we expect. All this comes together to lead to lower long-term mortgage rates for the near future. I might be a little early, but next week mortgage rates [will] go down.

Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania

Down — rate increases may be an overreaction, but not by that much.

Les Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates [will] go down. Here's a parody of Whitesnake’s 1982 hit “Here I Go Again.” “And here rates go again on their own. Going down the bearish road out into the unknown.” The recent rise in rates without conviction suggests a move lower this week.

22% say unchanged

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader


Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. CPI data was higher than expected and sent rates higher. Damage was done on Feb. 13, and rates should be flat for the coming week. Inflation is always the market’s biggest fear.