Rates are likely to rise this week, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 57 percent of respondents predict rates will increase and 36 percent predict rates will stay flat. Just 7 percent predict rates will drop over the next week.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.95 percent as of May 21, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 6.88 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 22 - 28, 2025
| Go up | 57% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 36% |
| Go down | 7% |
Debt, deficits and downgrades are driving the bond market right now — both in the U.S. and globally. The net result is higher mortgage rates.
— Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate
57% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates continue to drift higher as the latest budget that is being circulated by the House will add an additional $36 trillion to the Federal deficit, a risk highlighted in the downgrade of U.S. credit by Moody’s last week. There is a greater risk that the federal government will have to print money to pay its debt and the lower prices will send bond yields higher, causing mortgage rates to increase.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
As the stock market continues higher and American companies are poised to do well, the opposite effect happens to bonds/mortgages. Watch for rates to climb and continue [in] this direction for the foreseeable future.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
While the downgrade in U.S. debt has not helped, the real driver of mortgage rates right now is the pending federal tax bill. Until this is finalized, the uncertainty over the deal should serve to keep 30-year rates in the 7.00 percent range. As for next week, blame it on the downgrade for the slight increase in long-term mortgage rates.
Greg McBride, CFA
Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL
Debt, deficits and downgrades are driving the bond market right now — both in the U.S. and globally. The net result is higher mortgage rates.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Up. Time to retest rate highs to see if the 10-year can stay above 4.5 percent?
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate has bounced up and down over the past week, but things have been returning to current levels — even after the credit rating downgrade, which many watchers suggest was already accounted for in current rate levels. Still, the 10-year Treasury rate has inched upward slightly. News on trade deals and other economic indicators has been generally positive of late, but concerns about inflation (mostly trade-related) persist. Mortgage rates have been ticking up in recent days, tracking with Treasury rates, and I expect that relationship to hold as economic concerns remain unsettled.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Higher.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I'm anticipating further volatility in the rate market, driving rates a bit higher in the coming week as the budget bill comes into focus.
7% say rates will go down
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
With Memorial Day on Monday, it would be nice to say we will see a quiet week; however, there are several key financial indicators due out next week that could impact the market — Core Logic Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence (May) and Durable Goods Orders (April). I expect the market to be a bit wobbly, but overall, I believe the rates will trend down slightly.
36% say unchanged–
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I believe mortgage rates will remain unchanged heading into Memorial Day weekend. We’re in a period of cautious waiting. The market is closely watching inflation data, employment reports and any signals from the Fed. But right now, there doesn’t seem to be enough momentum in either direction to cause a significant shift. Unless we get an unexpected economic surprise or a dramatic geopolitical event, I think rates will hold steady.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Moody's downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt hurt mortgage-backed securities as well. Look for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to stay at or near 7.0 percent.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage Banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA
Unchanged. The 10-year treasury is currently trading at 4.539 percent and has been bouncing from a low of 4 percent on April 4 to where it is today. All the economic indicators are pointing in the right direction, however on the other side, we have the issue of tariffs and potentially huge price increases. However, I believe there is something bigger at play, and that is the trust in the U.S. financial markets and U.S. dominance in those markets. Historically, when trust and/or faith in the U.S. overall is shaken, you see rates rise to adjust for risk. I think it will be [a] bumpy road for the next few months and maybe through the end of the year.
Nicole Rueth
Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO
Rates are holding flat heading into the holiday weekend. With little economic data on the calendar and low market participation, there’s not much pushing mortgage rates in either direction. The bigger concern? Growing disillusionment with Washington’s fiscal dysfunction. As political posturing takes center stage over real solutions, markets are left watching, not moving.