Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for June 1-7, 2023
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of June 1-7
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[The] potential reduction in the inflation numbers between June and July releases will keep rates slightly lower. However, the market will bounce higher in the second half of the year.— Derek Egeberg Academy Mortgage
33% say rates will go up
Up. Debt ceiling is not solved. Not being solved translates to rate anxiety.
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Up. Debt limit agreement has limited impact on growth, or deficits.
Associate Professor of Finance, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Rates will continue to rise this week. The debt ceiling agreement isn’t a “done deal” yet, and the U.S. economy still faces some significant pressures in the form of potential rate hikes from the Federal Reserve at its June meeting and tightness in the banking sector.
67% say rates will go down
Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona
Lower. The next two months’ worth of disclosures for the inflation calculation will actually make the market look like we are moving lower. That potential reduction in the inflation numbers between June and July releases will keep rates slightly lower. However, the market will bounce higher in the second half of the year.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
If the debt ceiling agreement does not make it through both houses in time, then US Treasurys will price in increased credit risk. This will cause rates to rise across the board and mortgage rates will increase. On the other hand, if the Biden-McCarthy compromise passes both houses, then rates across the board should decline as we push back from the edge. My guess is this gets done well before the x-date of June 5, and we see falling long-term mortgage rates by next week.
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Lower. A Congressional deal on the budget will lessen concern about Treasury debt. This will also drive mortgage rates lower.
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Down. Assuming the debt ceiling votes pass, the hawkish tone from the Fed means longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, reverse the increases seen in the past couple of weeks.
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will drop. Here’s a parody based on the 1965 hit “In The Midnight Hour”: “Debt’s gonna wait 'til the midnight hour. That's when the rates come tumbling down.” With an economic slowdown emerging from Asia, including China, expect a return to lower rates.
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
Lower. After getting beaten up badly since May 12 on the interest rate complex, things finally started to settle following the announcement of a possible debt ceiling deal in Washington. While there is still a lot of work to get done to get it in place, markets seem to be optimistic that a crisis will be averted. The immediate impact was seeing an improvement in the 10-Year Treasury this week of roughly 20 basis points on intraday levels. Look for the employment report on Friday to show continued strength in its headline number but also downward revisions to prior reports.