Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For August 11-17 | Bankrate

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts are divided over where rates are headed in the coming week (August 11-17). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, about 28 percent say rates are going up, about 43 percent say rates are going down and another 28 percent say rates will remain the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

The better-than-expected inflation news will provide some short-term relief to mortgage rates.

— Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate

29% say rates will go up


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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. Last week's job report showed increased hiring. More pressure on the Fed to raise short-term rates. Long-term rates will follow.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Over the last 10 days, 10-year T-notes have slowly trended higher while long-term mortgage rates have bounced around plus or minus 50 basis points. Mortgage rates are rarely out of sync with 10-year Treasuries for too long. Next week, longer-term mortgage rates should rise in response to rising yields in Treasuries.

43% say rates will go down


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Dan Green

CEO, Homebuyer.com, Austin, Texas

Down. The Fed is beating inflation. This will be an excellent few weeks for homebuyers. Congratulations to everyone who benefits.

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Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA

Trend: Lower. A tame CPI (inflation at the retail level) gives hope that inflation will subside. Let's see if this persists before we set the band marching.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Down. The better-than-expected inflation news will provide some short-term relief to mortgage rates.

29% say unchanged


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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates will go sideways. Here's a parody based on the 1967 classic by Cream with memorable riffs and licks by Eric Clapton, "Sunshine Of Your Love”: "Wages waiting so long. To be where they're rising. In the sunshine of Fed's love." Strong jobs with rising wages scattered the hopeful doves and united the hawks. Meanwhile, the struggle between slowing growth and soaring inflation rages. Rates go nowhere.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Unchanged. Lots of economic data has come out in the last week, including the big print on jobs numbers to the lower than expected reading on CPI. Whether these numbers can continue on a month-to-month basis going forward, we shall see, but I would expect the employment numbers to decline as more companies are laying off staff. Many big-box retailers are complaining that they're experiencing inventory hangovers, which can be an indication of consumers simply spending less which is a result of price inflation and less spendable money in their wallets. Next Wednesday we get retail sales numbers, which can be a market mover but with little other high-impact data, rates should remain range-bound but once again, on a day-to-day basis, volatility is expected.