Mortgage experts mostly expect rates to fall in the week ahead (Sept. 16-22). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 50 percent said rates will drop, while 42 percent said they would stay put and just 8 percent said they will rise. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
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Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Sep 16 - 22
| Go up | 8% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 42% |
| Go down | 50% |
We should see slightly lower rates this week. CPI print showed that inflation was restrained and the techs are bullish.
— Dick Lepre, RPM Mortgage, Inc.
8% say rates will go up
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania
Up. Less fear of an immediate Fed rate hike.
50% say rates will go down
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida
Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on “Counting Stars,” a mega-hit from OneRepublic, the band performing at the Mortgage Bankers Association convention in San Diego this October. "But maybe, bucks’ been, gold’s been movin' hard; ‘cause, no more doubtin' Powell, They'll be; we'll be countin' stars." Questionable U.S. fiscal policy, tame volatility, and a flattening curve point to the 10-year yield taking out 1.25 percent, so expect mortgage rates to fall.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Down. The lower than expected inflation reading allows the Fed to defer any tapering decision beyond the September 22 meeting and take time in gauging the impact of the delta variant on the economic recovery.
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA
Trend: Lower. We should see slightly lower rates this week. CPI print showed that inflation was restrained and the techs are bullish (higher prices and lower rates).
Logan Mohtashami
Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California
Lower. Interesting week in bonds; yields fell after the weaker CPI data. However, the 10-year yield never really bought into the massive growth and inflation hype. We know that the rate of growth in some of our economic data lines is going to cool down naturally, working from extreme highs. If the inflation rate of growth has peaked and the Fed will hold off on the taper, you can make a case that yields should rise as the Fed will delay slowing the economy down until later. However, that discussion is still a way out.
42% say unchanged –
Gordon Miller
Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina
Rates will likely stay the same this week despite tame inflation news as the markets will turn their focus to what the Fed meeting will produce next week. Awaiting news on the onset of tapering asset purchases will once again derail what should have been a decline in rates this week, although I do not personally think the Fed will actually mention tapering on the 22nd.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Long-term mortgage rates will remain unchanged this week. In recent weeks, there has been little movement in both the 10-year Treasury Note yields and long-term mortgage rates. Until congress acts on President Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending proposal and the Fed begins to taper, very little will happen. Long-term mortgage rates will remain unchanged this week.
Jennifer Kouchis
Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida
Rates will remain the same. With uncertainty surrounding the delta variant and the economy I expect things will remain on a sideways trend for now. However, as always when we near the Fed Meeting, we may see some small upward spikes that I don’t expect to amount to much in the end.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Yields on Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which determine mortgage rates, have been in a consolidating pattern over the last few weeks. It seems as though markets are waiting for next week’s Fed meeting before yields break out of this consolidating pattern. Markets are trying to figure out if a tapering announcement will be made at the end of this meeting. For now, I think the consolidating pattern will continue with not much movement in mortgage rates. Rates will be flat in the coming week..
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged and the 10-year is trading at 1.314 percent today, which is just slightly higher than the last few weeks but not enough to make any changes in mortgage rates. The CPI was lower than expected and the only slowdown since late last year. Core inflation also dropped, allowing the market to stabilize at least for now. As mentioned in my last few posts, I believe that the inflation fears were transitory at least through the balance of 2021 so these numbers may be the proof.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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