In the week ahead (Jan. 16-22), 20 percent of experts predict rates will rise, 20 of the experts think rates will fall, and 80 percent predict rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate’s mortgage calculator.
Read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts below.
20% say rates will go up
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Mortgage rates have been steady to slightly improving over the last week. After a spike in Treasury yields following a de-escalation with Iran, yields have been coming down over the last several days leading to the improvement in mortgage rates. With the signing of phase one of a trade deal with China now complete, markets will turn attention towards economic data and fourth-quarter earnings reports. Given the fact that earnings generally beat analysts estimates (mostly because they lower their estimates leading into earnings reporting), I think there will be upward pressure on rates in the coming week, and we will see mortgage rates rise in the coming week.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economics, Holland, Pennsylvania
Rates will go up. The economy remains in good shape and rates are a little low.
20% say rates will go down
Greg McBride, CFA
Senior vice president and chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Inflation remains tame and economic growth is modest, so long-term rates are settling, pulling mortgage rates down just a bit.
80% say rates will remain the same
Natalie Campisi
Mortgage reporter, Bankrate.com
All’s quiet on the Western front, as inflation is currently at a good place, job growth is positive and Trump signed phase one of the China Trade deal. For now, it looks like rates will remain where they are.
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The techs are mixed, offering no clear sign as to their direction. Equities are booming, despite lower corporate earnings. Mortgage rates have become disconnected from Treasury yields because the liquidity coverage ration requirements of Basel III have made smaller the amount of money banks have to buy MBS. The good news for mortgage rates is that inflation remains well contained.
Logan Mohtashami
Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California
Rates will be unchanged: while stocks are hitting all-time highs, the bond market hasn’t taken the stance of a higher rate of growth year in 2020. Until we can close above 1.94 percent and get follow-through bond selling, we might be stuck around here for some time. However, any drama headline or a standard 5-percent pullback in stocks can drive money into bonds and take yields lower.
Bob Moulton
President,
Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, New York
Rates are flat.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Loan officer, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles
Rates will remain unchanged. The 10-year is trading at 1.828 percent and last week it was trading at 1.823 percent, which is only a difference of .005 percent. I think we will see more of the same (consistent rates) for the coming weeks and likely through the end of January. It is typical in January to see a fairly stable and quiet market as everyone waits for final figures from the previous year. I am sure it will get more exciting as we move along in this election year.
Les Parker
Managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, FL
Mortgage Rates go nowhere. Here’s a parody based on Depeche Mode’s 1990 hit, “Enjoy the Silence.” “All Bonds ever wanted; All Bonds ever needed; Is here in Fed’s arms; Moves are very unnecessary; They can only do harm.” The Fed and the major central banks recaptured nothingness with few words and an ocean of liquidity.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate’s panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
