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Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2023

September 27, 2023
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Moving into October, mortgage rates are likely to go up, according to the majority of rate-watchers polled by Bankrate.

Of those polled, 69 percent of respondents believe mortgage rates will rise, 15 percent believe rates will go down and 15 percent believe rates will hold steady.

The average 30-year fixed rose to 7.55 percent as of Sept. 27, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 7.42 percent the previous week.

Estimate your monthly mortgage payment based on current rates using this calculator.

Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2023

Experts say rates will...

Go up 69%
Stay the same 15%
Go down 15%
Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

The trend has not been our friend and rates continue to get worse than I had expected based on recent data.

— James Sahnger C2 Financial

69% say rates will go up

Melissa Cohn photo

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will continue to rise this week as higher oil prices flame inflation fears. In addition, the Fed has made it clear that rates will remain higher for longer with the expectation that there will be another rate hike this year. In their dot plot, the Fed also reduced the number of rate cuts by half for 2024, implying that the Fed funds rate will remain at its high level for a good part of 2024. The icing on the rising rate cake is the impending government shutdown which has created additional volatility to the upside. Let’s hope that Washington can come to terms and avoid the shutdown from happening.

Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona

Rates in the 8s used to be the thing of fortune tellers and crystal balls. Then, rates that high were something in the distance seen by telescope. Now, rates in the 8s are knocking at the front door. Like flood waters, until inflation falls below 3 percent and back to the Fed’s target of 2 to 2.5 percent, (which doesn’t factor in food and energy costs and the pending petroleum supply issues) do not expect rates to recede.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Last week, I thought worry over a possible federal shutdown would hold off for one more week — I was wrong. The yield on 10-Year Treasurys took off last week and shows no sign of letting up. The yield on 10-Year Treasurys will be up again this week (unless a deal is reached) and so will mortgage rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will increase again.

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. Mortgage rates are following the $100 per barrel of oil inflation trail.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Up. Higher for longer interest rates and a deluge of Treasury issuance have the bond market in a tizzy, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania

Higher. Firms are still pushing up prices and inflation.

James Sahnger photo

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida

Higher. The trend has not been our friend and rates continue to get worse than I had expected based on recent data. GDP figures on Wednesday were hotter than expected and more pressure was added to an already pressure-cooked pot. Until we receive additional data to indicate a decidedly weaker economy, take a defensive posture when locking your rate.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D. photo

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. Rates will continue to move slightly higher as uncertainty and pressures on the banking sector persist.

Bennie Waller photo

Bennie Waller

William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL

Mortgage rates will follow treasury yields and move higher.

15% say rates will go down

Dan Green photo

Dan Green

CEO, , Austin , Texas

Down. A respite from rising rates as Wall Street swings back the other way for a few weeks.

Les  Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates go down. Here’s a parody of Radiohead’s 1993 classic, “Thinking About You.” “We’ve been thinking about you, so how can facts sleep? Old numbers aren't your friends; new ones won’t kiss Fed’s feet.” The Dollar’s strength and the steepening curve strengthen the case for a short-cover rally with the appropriate data. So, expect volatility and sporadic illiquidity to reverse the feeding of the interest bears and spur raging bulls.

15% say unchanged

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. While the economy as measured by GDP growth remains healthy, the Fed continues to lower M2 Money Supply. Rates will remain near the 7.5 percent level until this lower M2 causes a mild recession in 2024.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY