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Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for May 25-31, 2023

May 24, 2023
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Mortgage experts are divided about rate trends in the coming week (May 25-31), but the plurality predict that rates will rise. In response to Bankrate’s weekly poll, 66 percent say rates are going up, 17 percent say rates are going down and 17 percent say rates will remain the same. You can figure what your monthly payment would be using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Week of May 25-31

Experts say rates will...

Go up 67%
Stay the same 17%
Go down 17%
Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

Next week, long-term mortgage rates will continue to rise due to uncertainty over a government shutdown. Until this mess is cleared up, rates will continue to increase.

— Ken Johnson, Ph.D Florida Atlantic University

67% say rates will go up

James Sahnger photo

James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida

Higher. On May 10, the markets received favorable data that inflation was starting to abate on a year-over-year basis and consumer prices were coming down. The market liked the news for two days, going from 3.52 percent on the 10-year Treasury to 3.298 percent on May 12. Since then, rates have stubbornly and markedly climbed higher to 3.74 percent on May 24. The reasons for this have been varied, including failed discussions in Washington on the debt ceiling, continued Fed jawboning that rate hikes will continue till inflation is back at 2 percent, and uncertainty with the banking system. Based on this trend, rates could climb higher, although technical signals indicate a rally could be coming soon to provide some relief.

Sean Salter photo

Sean Salter

Associate Professor of Finance, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Rates will be up this week. Even after the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations are resolved, there are still signs that the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish contingent may push for a rate hike in June, or at least not agree to a “pause” so easily. While that meeting is still about three weeks away, the banking sector is still reeling from recent failures, and there’s a lot of pressure on regional banks to perform. With all that going on, I believe rates will keep rising until there is closure on at least two of those three issues.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Wash, rinse, and repeat. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will continue to rise due to uncertainty over a government shutdown. Until this mess is cleared up, rates will continue to increase.

Greg McBride photo

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Vote: Up. Nervousness about the debt ceiling, possible default, and continued chatter from some members of the Fed that interest rates may still need to rise further do not help mortgage rates.

17% say rates will go down

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: Lower. As soon as there is a political deal on the Federal budget, rates will move lower. Uncertainty has moved the 30-year fixed to 7 percent.

17% say unchanged

Les  Parker photo

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Here’s a parody based on Jackson Browne’s 1967 song, recently covered by St. Vincent, “These Days”: “Well, we've been out looking, we don't do that much buying these days, these days..” Though listings are down, opportunities knock for a few homebuyers, despite the mild uptick in rates.