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In the week ahead (Nov. 25-Dec. 2), Bankrate's expert panel mostly expects rates to stay the same. 64 percent predicted rates will hold, while 27 percent expected rates to rise and 9 percent said rates will fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Higher. Bond yields headed slightly lower due to the rise in COVID cases but quickly reversed when more vaccine data came out. Oil is rising, and the stock market is at an all-time high as I write this. The bond market, oil, and stocks are looking at a 2021 world where we have a vaccine and better treatments for COVID-19. This in itself is a job package because once we can walk the earth freely again, those 10 million Americans that still don't have a job due to COVID-19 will have a pathway for employment over the next 2 years.
With bond traders being off for the Thanksgiving holiday, it doesn’t take much to move bond markets on weeks like this. Positive news on COVID-19 vaccines and better than expected purchasing manager’s indices on Monday have stocks rallying and bonds selling off a bit. With so few traders working this week I expect this trend to continue through the holiday with slightly higher rates this week.
Mortgage rates go nowhere. Here's a parody based on 1974, The Hues Corporation hit song "Rock the Boat." "So, Joe wants to know where Trump got the notion. Said he'd like to know where he got the notion. To rock the boat, don't rock the boat, Yellen." With the market fearing inflation and lockdowns, which one happens? Trading suggests a balanced position between the two.Yellen's "don't rock the boat" approach makes bonds mellow towards Biden's Treasury pick.
Trend: Flat. With market participation thinned by the Thanksgiving holiday markets become less predictable. With rates remaining low our overall attention should be on home prices which are +6.6% year/year. Markets are about 4 things: supply, demand, price, and elasticity. Local governments restrain supply causing prices to rise. This has bad effects both economic and social.
Mortgage banker,Macoy Capital Partners,Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged. The 10 year is trading at .877 percent, which is virtually unchanged from last week. As the White House transitions the new administration will take shape and so far the market likes what it is seeing. Coronavirus will continue to lead the news as cases skyrocket and the country locks down a little more.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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