Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Oct. 21-27, 2021
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
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Mortgage experts mostly expect rates to rise in the week ahead (Oct. 21-27). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 64 percent said rates will go up. Meanwhile, 27 percent said they would stay put and just 9 percent expect them to fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Oct 21 - 27
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
If you haven’t refinanced to a lower rate yet, don’t let this train leave you at the station.
Mortgage rates go up. Here's a parody based on “How Long,” the 2017 hit by Charlie Puth. "How long will this be goin' on? QE's creepin' 'round to leave; While Fed's tellin' us, maybe." Are bearish and bullish expectations widening? If so, volatility expands, and particularly as central banks reduce liquidity.
Long-term mortgage rates will continue to climb in the coming week. The Fed is talking openly about its tapering plans. This is causing yields on 10-year Treasury Notes to rise. In turn, long-term mortgage rates will respond positively to increases in the 10-year.
Vote: Up. Inflation is the watch-word. Corporate earnings calls are full of mentions about it and even the tenor of Fed speeches has grown more hawkish. The 10-year Treasury moving above 1.6 percent for the first time since June is lifting mortgage rates.
Bond yields and mortgage rates have been steadily rising since the last Fed meeting in September when the Fed hinted that the tapering of bond purchases could be announced at their November meeting. We are two weeks away from that meeting and I expect the upward trend in mortgage rates will continue leading into that meeting.
Up. The economy is not slowing and neither is inflation.
Mortgage banker,Macoy Capital Partners,Los Angeles, CA
Up. The 10-year is trading at 1.637 percent, which is a five-month high. In the minutes from the September Fed meeting, it is widely agreed that they will move up the tapering of the bond buying program to mid-November and/or early December. This is the signal the Fed believes the economy is on the right track, and economic growth and improvement in the labor markets will be gradual and consistent. It also leads to a potential rate hike sooner in 2022 than first expected. The Fed meeting notes from the Nov. 2-3 meeting will shed even more light on their thoughts and plans.
Higher. Paul Tudor Jones stated on CNBC Wednesday morning that inflation is “probably the single biggest threat to certainly financial markets and I think to society just in general.” Excess stimulus continues to inflate asset prices that are not only in the financial markets but in everything we are buying. Housing, automobiles, and just about everything on the shelf continues to climb higher. While we may not see a big swing in rates though next week, we may be at the best levels we will see for a while. If you haven’t refinanced to a lower rate yet, don’t let this train leave you at the station.
Lower. Yields have made a decent jump recently. We are getting closer to testing the highs on the 10-year yield at 1.75 percent. The stock market has rebounded quickly as well. Even though GDP estimates are coming down for Q3 we still have a lot of expansionary data to keep the cycle moving. However, unless we break over 1.75 percent we could see a rally in bonds soon from this 1.65 percent level on the 10-year yield.
Trend: Flat. Markets will trade flat until Congress decides how many trillion dollars we need to borrow. That increased debt will not, in the short term, be favorable to rates.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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