Expert poll: Mortgage rate predictions for April 1-7, 2020

3 min read


In the week ahead (April 1-7), none of the experts predict that rates will rise, 78 percent of the experts predict a drop in rates and 22 percent predict that rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate’s mortgage calculator.

0% say rates will go up

None of the experts predict a rise in mortgage rates.

78% say rates will go down

Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Mortgage rates for most lenders are much higher than would be indicated by the yields on the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Lenders are dealing with multiple issues at this point. Capacity to handle the volume of loan applications; liquidity constraints brought about by margin calls largely as a result of the Fed buying mortgage-backed securities; and, most importantly, uncertainty in regards to the potential forbearance of mortgage payments and the damage that is doing to the value of mortgage servicing rights. In this environment, it’s hard to predict the direction of mortgage rates as there are wild swings day to day and from lender to lender. My hope is that uncertainty wanes and the mortgage market settles down and we will see lower rates in the coming week.

Natalie Campisi

Natalie Campisi

Senior mortgage reporter, Bankrate.com

Mortgage rates have been turbulent due to a number of unforeseen issues and now, as lenders are dealing with costly margin calls due to the Fed buying MBS by the billions, there’s even more uncertainty in the mix. However, the Fed and mortgage lenders are beginning to communicate which might help untangle this web and push rates a little lower.

Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan adviser, RPM Mortgage, Alamo, Calif.

The techs remain mixed with a forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to remain just below 1 percent. Conforming rates have been unnaturally high considering where Treasury yields are. Some lenders have lost money because of bad hedging strategies. Despite complaints from those folks, the Fed is continuing to purchase agency MBS. Jumbos are a different story because jumbo securitization is falling apart. The message is lower conforming rates in the coming week.

Joel Naroff

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economics, Holland, Pennsylvania

Mortgage rates will go down. As reality sets in at the White House, others will begin to see reality.

Greg McBride

Greg McBride, CFA

Senior vice president and chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

The news is expected to get worse, both economically and otherwise, keeping bond yields and mortgage rates low. The functioning of credit markets will also be key to rates remaining low.

Logan Mohtashami

Logan Mohtashami

Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California

The 10-year Treasury yield is at 0.60 percent today, while we are in this recession we should be in a range between -0.21 percent to 0.62 percent. The bond market today is acting as it should as we don’t see any more liquidation selling going on even with a down day in the markets. Now the second issue is the complete mortgage market meltdown that the government is trying to fix. However, if any progress is made rates should be heading lower.

Les Parker

Les Parker

Managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates will drop. Here’s a parody based on the 1965 hit by The Rolling Stones, “Satisfaction.” “Bonds can’t get no satisfaction, Stocks can’t get no satisfaction.” Expect mortgage rates to follow Treasury yield to new lows. Watch stocks and oil fall, as headlines of deaths and more record unemployment claims drag on investors. A dramatic increase in rates is about 2 or 3 weeks away.

22% say rates will remain the same

Gordon Miller

Gordon Miller

President, Miller Lending, Cary, North Carolina

Mortgage rates will stay the same. New issues are beginning to enter the mortgage market and quickly, such as higher credit score minimums; the inability to lend to borrowers in certain industries; appraisers refusing assignments; and closing attorneys trying to reassure borrowers it’s okay to meet. With this much uncertainty and such rapidly evolving changes, I can’t see any reason why lenders would want to be more aggressive.

Jim Sahnger

Jim Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation Jupiter, Florida

Rates will remain unchanged. Interest rates will stay range bound over the coming week. There are so many variables that have never been meaningful factors in pricing mortgage-backed securities and consumer mortgage rates before. Rates, based on MBS pricing alone, could be amongst the lowest of all time. However, when factoring risk with borrower ability and willingness to repay based on COVID-19 issues, things get murky pretty quickly. Just as skies across the world have cleared with less movement of folks over the past few weeks, the picture for MBS and consumer mortgage rates will clear somewhat when we have less volatility in MBS pricing. Rates should remain tight but right now, a lot can happen to change things in the short-term. Be safe.

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index

Bankrate’s panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.

 

Learn more about specific loan type rates
Loan Type Purchase Rates Refinance Rates
The table above links out to loan-specific content to help you learn more about rates by loan type.
30-Year Loan 30-Year Mortgage Rates 30-Year Refinance Rates
20-Year Loan 20-Year Mortgage Rates 20-Year Refinance Rates
15-Year Loan 15-Year Mortgage Rates 15-Year Refinance Rates
10-Year Loan 10-Year Mortgage Rates 10-Year Refinance Rates
FHA Loan FHA Mortgage Rates FHA Refinance Rates
VA Loan VA Mortgage Rates VA Refinance Rates
ARM Loan ARM Mortgage Rates ARM Refinance Rates
Jumbo Loan Jumbo Mortgage Rates Jumbo Refinance Rates