Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 23 - March 29, 2023

Written by

Mar. 22, 2023

Experts say rates will...

Go up	20%
Stay the same	20%
Go down	60%

Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

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Most mortgage experts predict that rates will decrease in the coming week (Mar. 23-29). In response to Bankrate’s weekly poll, 20 percent say rates are going up, 60 percent say rates are going down and 20 say rates will remain the same. You can figure what your monthly payment would be using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Rate Trend Index

Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed

Week of Mar. 23-Mar. 29

Experts say rates will...

Go up	20%
Stay the same	20%
Go down	60%

Percentages might not equal 100 due to rounding.

The mortgage market remained calm amid the banking crises in the US and Europe, and will now do better than Treasuries.
— Les Parker CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

20% say rates will go up

Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. As long as the dust settles in the banking system, the Fed is intent on raising rates further. With inflation still at 6 percent, it is hard to imagine any significant decline in mortgage rates without a big drop in either inflation or economic activity.

60% say rates will go down

Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida

Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody based on Freda Payne’s 1970 hit, “Band of Gold”: “Now with cash gone/All that's left is a Band of Gold.” The mortgage market remained calm amid the banking crises in the US and Europe, and will now do better than Treasuries.

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Chairman Powell’s comments surprised many. The only real question now is will there be an expedited flight to safety (a jump in purchases of 10-year Treasury notes) or not. My guess is yes – there will be an expedited flight to safety. Thus, 10-year treasury prices will go up, resulting in lower 10-year yields, and long-term mortgage rates will follow the 10-year yields lower. Next week, we can expect lower mortgage rates.

Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland

At the end of the current FOMC meeting, the Fed announced some changes that have bonds rallying and mortgage rates dropping. They mentioned the U.S. banking system, which makes sense given the recent bank failures. They said that “recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses.” The implication is that tighter lending conditions will help the Fed in its fight against inflation and may allow them to pause sooner rather than later. They also changed the wording from “ongoing increases in the target range will” to “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” I think this will have bond markets pricing in rate cuts sooner than before this statement, which will lead to lower mortgage rates in the coming week.

20% say unchanged–

Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA

Trend: flat. The 25 bps hike was expected. Rates will move with the perception of inflation. The hike is supposed to bring inflation into check.