Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For July 2-8, 2020

5 min read
Rate trend index
In the week ahead (July 2-July 7), half of the experts predict that rates will stay the same, 19 percent of the experts predict a rise in rates and 31 percent predict that rates will drop. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Rates continue to remain at all-time lows and although there is a recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases, we have to look back to March when we experienced our initial rate volatility. The Federal Reserve stepped in with support by buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed bonds. The Fed is still assisting in controlling the market.

— Jennifer Kouchis, VyStar Credit Union

19% say rates will go up

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Positive news on the jobs front would give rates a little lift heading into the holiday weekend.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, MD

After sitting at all-time lows for a week or two, mortgage rates are due for a pull back. It looks like the current rally is running out of steam. I expect slightly higher mortgage rates in the coming week.

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Robert Brusca

Chief Economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York, NY

31% say rates will go down

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Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, PA

Reality about the virus has to eventually set in ... maybe.

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Derek Egeberg

Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, AZ

As the market continues to evaluate the health of the economy, clawbacks in states opening back up and the pending election cycle, look for rates to drift lower.

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Jeff Lazerson

president, MortgageGrader,

COVID-19 is raging at 40,000 U.S. cases per day with new cases potentially hitting 100,000 per day, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci. This undoubtedly means more slowdowns and shutdowns. Look for mortgage rates to drift even lower. Today, you can get a 15-year fixed in the low 2 percent range. That may drop below the 2 percent threshold soon enough. Yes, 15-year fixed rates under 2 percent!

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Ken H Johnson

real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University,

Down Long-term fixed rate mortgages should fall in response to increasing COVID-19 cases which will drive monies from the equity markets into bond and mortgage markets. These extra monies will drive up the demand, and therefore the price, of these fixed rate instruments. The higher prices will in turn produce lower yields/rates.

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Ralph McLaughlin

chief economist and senior vice president of analytics, Haus,

I expect mortgage rates will fall yet again, following a sharp downturn in optimism about preventing a resurgence of the virus this summer. The downturn in optimism should push investors to 10-year Treasurys again, and thus will put downward pressure on mortgage rates.

50% say unchanged

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Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., San Francisco, CA

The Treasury techs are mixed and while equities, Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities may bounce from day to day they are going nowhere this week and even in the next month. Both U.S. Treasury yields and mortgage rates will likely stay low until the end of the year and quite possible longer. While we lament expanded Treasury debt, high unemployment and low GDP growth in the US the fact is that essentially all of the rest of the world is in worse shape. Flight to quality buying will keep the U.S. dollar strong and both Treasury yields and mortgage rates low.

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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, NC

Rates should stay in a narrow trading range with a slight downward bias this week as volume concerns seem to have been more of a month-end/holiday issue. Treasurys have become a nonfactor as we head into the summer.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing Analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, CA

We had a dip in pricing due to lower bond yields, as stocks had a small pullback. However, the 200-day moving average held up, and stocks and bonds are holding their ground today. It's hard for the bond market to crack under 0.62 percent without more significant shutdown orders. Keep an eye out on all virus data, the jobs and jobless claims report comes out tomorrow, ADP data showed a gain of 2.37 million jobs today, and we got some positive headlines on the vaccine front.

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Les Parker

CMB, Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Trevose, PA

Here's a parody based on Fatboy Slim's 1998 Praise You. You hear it in commercials today. "Spreads came a long, long way together; Through the hard times and the good; Fed wants to celebrate it, daily; So, will we praise you like you want." The major central banks (Fed, BOJ, BOE, ECB) own 22 percent to 46 percent of their respective government debt. Common sense tells us that relationships change. The Fed wants to make them static. It works while it works, but someday it won't.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, FL

As we await the employment report numbers from the BLS, the only thing that I think can be certain is we really have no idea where this number will come in and what revisions may lie in wait. ADP results this morning came in under expectations missing by 700,000 at 2.3 million but the revision for last month was adjusted to 3 million from down 2.76 million, a HUGE revision. All this could be moot though as millions of jobs lost will not be recovered and COVID-19 cases continue to ramp up. Look for rates to remain range bound as states revisit lockdowns.

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Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA

The 10-year is currently trading at .678 percent and has barely changed since last week (.698) This continues to be unusual time in history with the country opening and then closing again making for uncertainty in every sector. That said, do not expect any change to rates in the next week. As mentioned last week there is little or no incentive for the banks/lenders to lower rates only to cannibalize their own portfolios with higher yields when they are already struggling under record breaking refinances.

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Jennifer Kouchis

regional vice president, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

Rates continue to remain at all-time lows and although there is a recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases, we have to look back to March when we experienced our initial rate volatility. The Federal Reserve stepped in with support by buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed bonds. The Fed is still assisting in controlling the market and although we will continue to see some small moves both up and down with regard to rates, I don’t expect to see any drastic movements.