Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 29-Mar. 6, 2024
|Stay the same
Mortgage rates should hold steady for the coming week, according to the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 63 percent of respondents anticipate little movement from mortgage rates in the upcoming week, while 25 percent believe rates will decrease. Only 13 percent predict rates will rise.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Feb. 29-Mar. 6, 2024
|Stay the same
Inflation isn’t settling down as quickly as was expected, so this will keep a floor under mortgage rates until we get some better data.— Greg McBride
13% say rates will go up
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Where the 10-year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will increase slightly.
25% say rates will go down
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I am looking for rates to move lower in the week ahead following the market’s reaction to updated inflation metrics.
Down. Consumer confidence slumped a bit in February. A mortgage rate drop is a logical consequence.
63% say unchanged–
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
Mortgage rates and bond yields have been very stable over the last week. There hasn’t been a lot of data that can move the bond markets. We do have the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, report on Feb. 29, but unless it contains a surprise, bond markets have already digested the CPI report, so I don’t expect that to move markets much. The next big report that could move bond markets is the employment report slated for March 8. Because of this, I expect mortgage rates to be flat over the coming week.
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will remain range bound this week. With no data to move rates up or down, they will remain unchanged until we get the next batch of economic data. Mortgage rates will start moving again in March as new data on inflation, employment and consumer spending are released.
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Rates will stay flat as market participants see no unexpected data.
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Inflation isn’t settling down as quickly as was expected, so this will keep a floor under mortgage rates until we get some better data.
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates [will] go nowhere. Here's a parody of Duran Duran's 1992 hit "Ordinary World:” "And as Bonds try to break their way to the ordinary world, they will learn to survive." Rates are trapped waiting for news that transforms its new ordinary world.