Mortgage rate forecast: May 2026

Mortgage rates eased a bit in April, but they’re still above their early 2026 lows. The run-up in rates has left many consumers feeling less than eager to dive into the housing market.

The war in Iran sent oil prices soaring in recent weeks. Higher energy prices translate to both higher inflation and rising 10-year Treasury yields. And both of those things exert upward pressure on mortgage rates.

More good news is needed to push rates back below 6%. That may be too much to hope for in May.

— Stephen Kates Financial Analyst, Bankrate

As of April 29, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.37%, according to Bankrate’s weekly lender survey. 

“Middle East tensions have stabilized, though they have not been fully resolved,” says Stephen Kates, Bankrate’s financial analyst. “The progress so far has helped ease rates, but more good news is needed to push rates back below 6%. That may be too much to hope for in May. Buyers should carefully consider the cost of waiting against current rates and prices.”

Will mortgage interest rates go down?

Most housing economists say it’s unlikely rates will fall much farther. The Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae both call for rates to stay above 6% for the rest of 2026.

Mortgage rates are nothing if not volatile, though, and other factors are pushing them higher — especially the war in Iran.

“Mortgage rates will likely continue to be volatile throughout the spring,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a large listing service in the mid-Atlantic region. “For the market to regain full momentum, we will need to see more than just a temporary dip in rates. Rather, we need sustained stability in the global energy market and a clearer sign that domestic inflation is back on a downward trajectory.”

Current mortgage rate trends

The median national home price clocked in at $398,000 in February, a record high for the month, according to the National Association of Realtors. “For the spring housing market, this increase in mortgage rates acts as a significant headwind,” Sturtevant says. “For now, the rebounding spring homebuying season many had been hoping for is being tempered by these external pressures, leading to a more limited and uncertain market environment.”

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What to do if you’re getting a mortgage this year

• Improve your credit score. The lowest mortgage rates go to borrowers with the highest credit scores, usually at least 780. A lower credit score won’t prevent you from getting a loan, but it can make all the difference between getting the best possible rate and more costly borrowing terms.
• Save up for a bigger down payment. Putting more money down upfront can help you obtain a lower mortgage rate, and if you put down at least 20% of the purchase price, you’ll avoid mortgage insurance, which adds costs to your loan. If you’re a first-time homebuyer and can’t cover a 20% down payment, there are loans, grants and programs that can help. The eligibility requirements vary by program but are often based on factors like your income.
• Understand your debt-to-income ratio. Your DTI ratio compares how much money you owe to how much money you make, specifically your total monthly debt payments against your gross monthly income. Not sure how to figure out your DTI ratio? Bankrate has a calculator for that.

FAQs

• How are mortgage rates determined?

  Mortgage rates are not directly set by any one entity; they grow from a complicated mix of economic factors. Lenders typically set their rates based on the return they need to make a profit after accounting for risks and costs. The Federal Reserve gets a lot of attention, but it doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, either. The closest proxy for mortgage rates is the 10-year Treasury yield: Historically, the typical 30-year mortgage rate has been about 2 percentage points higher than the 10-year Treasury yield. But since the pandemic, that “spread” has been closer to 3 percentage points.

• When should I refinance my mortgage?

  Deciding when to refinance is based on many factors. If rates have fallen since you took out your mortgage, refinancing might make sense. A refi can also be a good idea if you’ve improved your credit score and could lock in a lower rate. A cash-out refinance can accomplish that as well, plus give you the funds to pay for a home renovation or other expenses.