Mortgage rates rise on Iran news, still near three-year low

Current mortgage rates

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.33 discount and origination points. Discount points are a way to lower your mortgage rate, while origination points are fees lenders charge to create, review and process your loan.

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Monthly mortgage payment at today’s rates

The national median family income for 2025 was $104,200, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (the 2026 estimate has yet to be released), and the median price of an existing home sold in January 2026 was $396,800, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20% down payment and a 6.15% mortgage rate, the monthly principal and interest payment of $1,934 amounts to about 22% of the typical family’s monthly income.

Meanwhile, home prices have begun to dip in many formerly hot markets. Half of the nation’s 50 largest metro areas exprienced price declines over the past year, Zillow reported in early February. Seperately, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index released Feb. 24 showed national home prices grew just 1.3% in 2025. That was the weakest showing since 2011, when prices fell 3.9%.

“With more housing inventory coming online and home prices starting to level off, this remains a promising environment for those looking to buy or refinance,” says Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage.  

What will happen to mortgage rates in 2026?

The war in Iran roiled financial markets and sent mortgage rates slightly higher this week. “If the conflict is limited in duration and scope, higher energy prices, bond yields and mortgage rates could all be temporary, and mortgage rates could settle back down to around 6%. The spring homebuying season might get a late start, but sales would likely rebound,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a large listing service in the mid-Atlantic region. “Alternatively, if this is a prolonged conflict, there could be major energy disruptions, leading to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates, which could create structural shift in the housing market with fewer transactions.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is set to meet later this month. While the central bank doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it does play a role.

One reason rates recently dipped: President Donald Trump’s announcement that he directed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage rates, already at a 15-month low of 6.24% before Trump’s Truth Social post in early January, fell to 6.18% in a Bankrate survey three weeks ago. However, that action hasn’t led to a sustained decline in mortgage rates.

Sean Salter, a finance professor at Middle Tennessee State University, said Trump’s policy move would create “a temporary and limited reduction in mortgage rates”: “Unless there is coordination with and support from monetary-policy actions via the Federal Reserve, and/or fiscal-policy actions from Congress, the effects of Trump’s announcement will likely not be highly impactful or long-lasting.”

Fannie and Freddie are the government-sponsored enterprises that back about two-thirds of U.S. home loans. Those mortgages are packaged as securities and sold to the Federal Reserve, pension funds and other institutional investors. So, while your home loan might be originated by a lender such as Rocket, loanDepot or Wells Fargo, or by an independent mortgage broker, it soon is turned into a mortgage bond owned by an investor. If the government steps in and buys additional bonds based on mortgages, the increased demand for home loans could lead to lower rates.

The consensus now is that mortgage rates will drift slightly lower. Fannie Mae’s February 2026 Housing Forecast predicts that rates will sit at 6% for most of 2026 and 2027.

• Methodology

  The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.