To help people understand what consumer rates may do in the future and when they’re likely to hit their absolute bottom, Bankrate.com turned to the past. We compiled more than a decade of interest rate data from our historical database and the Federal Reserve’s records. Consumers can use the results of our study — listed below — to make an educated guess about when the best rates will be available.
The two tables show how the average rates on six bank products changed in the wake of two rate-cutting cycles and two rate-hiking cycles. The dates of the cycles are listed across the top of the tables. The dates when rates on the various products reached their lowest or highest levels are listed below, as are the number of months it took them to get there after the last Fed cut or hike. A negative number means the average rate for that product bottomed or peaked before the Fed was done cutting or raising rates.
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Rate-cut time lags
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June 1989 – Sept. 1992 cycle
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Sept. 1998 – Nov. 1998 cycle
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Product
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Rate bottom
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Lag
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Rate bottom
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Lag
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48-month. new-car loan
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March 1994
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19 months
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June 1999
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7 months
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30-year mortgage |
Oct. 1993
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12 months
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Oct. 1998
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-1 month
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1-year ARM
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Oct. 1993
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12 months
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Oct. 1998
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-1 month
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HELOC
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June 1993
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10 months
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March 1999
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4 months
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1-year CD
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Dec. 1993
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15 months
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Jan. 1999
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2 months
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5-year CD
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Jan. 1994
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17 months
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Feb. 1999
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2 months
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Rate-hike time lags
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Feb. 1994 – Feb. 1995 cycle
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June 1999 – May 2000 cycle
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Product
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Rate peak
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Lag
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Rate peaked
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Lag
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48-mo. car
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April 1995
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5 months
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Oct. 2000
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2 months
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30-yr. mtg.
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Nov. 1994
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-3 months
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May 2000
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0 months
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1-yr. ARM
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Jan. 1995
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-1 month
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May 2000
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0 months
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HELOC
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March 1995
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1 month
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June 2000
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1 month
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1-yr. CD
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Feb. 1995
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0 months
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Sept. 2000
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4 months
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5-yr. CD
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Feb. 1995
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0 months
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June 2000
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1 month
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— Posted: May 15, 2001
