Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For May 6-12, 2021
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
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Mortgage experts mostly think rates will stay put in the week ahead (May 6-12). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 67 percent said rates will remain the same, 22 percent said rates would fall and 11 percent said rates would rise. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 6 - 12
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
Rates should stay the same for the foreseeable future with slight volatility.
Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the 1980 hit “Love Will Tear Us Apart” by Joy Division. "Are trends changing their ways, taking different roads? Then Fed dove will tear 'em apart again. Fed dove will tear 'em apart again." The Fed remains committed to low rates, so the signs of the global economic recovery underperforming optimist expectations push rates lower.
Long-term mortgage rates will remain virtually unchanged. 10-year Treasury yields have been remarkably stable for the last two weeks holding between 1.50 percent and 1.675 percent. This stability should translate into minimal movement in long-term mortgage rates. Mortgage rates should remain virtually unchanged this week holding near historic lows.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst,Stone & McCarthy Research Associates,New York, NY
Trend: Flat. Markets are confused and bouncy. Confusion stems from lack of consensus as to whether we are about to have significant inflation vs. those who believe the Fed’s view that inflation will be transitory. For the next few weeks attention will be focused on how much more debt the administration and Congress decide to take on. The bigger the increase in the debt ceiling the bigger the hit to rates will be.
Despite comments from Treasury secretary Yellen regarding the possibility of rate hikes this year, the likelihood of near term increases remains low. Rates should stay the same for the foreseeable future with slight volatility.
Mortgage banker,Macoy Capital Partners,Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged. The 10-year is trading at 1.60 percent today but has been in a narrow range for the last few weeks. Treasurys were poised to rise but were pared by the reporting of new jobs by ADP, which fell short of estimates. The Fed and the market have been talking about inflation and I don’t think anyone believes the recent increase is anything more than a momentary blip on the inflation radar.
Unchanged. No matter how good the economic data has been, the bond market refuses to go in any direction for the time being. Jobs Friday is coming up, and the jobs data is about to make an epic run to get all the jobs lost to COVID-19. So, not much is going on in the bond market, and the stock market refuses to have a 10 percent correction. So for now, keep a close eye when the 10-year yield gets 1.75 percent or 1.55 percent.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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