Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For May 6-12, 2021

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts mostly think rates will stay put in the week ahead (May 6-12). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 67 percent said rates will remain the same, 22 percent said rates would fall and 11 percent said rates would rise. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Rates should stay the same for the foreseeable future with slight volatility.

— Gordon Miller, Miller Lending Group

11% say rates will go up


Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

Up. Look for a good employment report.

22% say rates will go down


Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Down. With inflation pressures in mind-it doesn’t really make any sense to me but rates are drifting down.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the 1980 hit “Love Will Tear Us Apart” by Joy Division. "Are trends changing their ways, taking different roads? Then Fed dove will tear 'em apart again. Fed dove will tear 'em apart again." The Fed remains committed to low rates, so the signs of the global economic recovery underperforming optimist expectations push rates lower.

67% say unchanged


Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Long-term mortgage rates will remain virtually unchanged. 10-year Treasury yields have been remarkably stable for the last two weeks holding between 1.50 percent and 1.675 percent. This stability should translate into minimal movement in long-term mortgage rates. Mortgage rates should remain virtually unchanged this week holding near historic lows.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY

Unchanged.

Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. Markets are confused and bouncy. Confusion stems from lack of consensus as to whether we are about to have significant inflation vs. those who believe the Fed’s view that inflation will be transitory. For the next few weeks attention will be focused on how much more debt the administration and Congress decide to take on. The bigger the increase in the debt ceiling the bigger the hit to rates will be.

Gordon Miller photo

Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Despite comments from Treasury secretary Yellen regarding the possibility of rate hikes this year, the likelihood of near term increases remains low. Rates should stay the same for the foreseeable future with slight volatility.

Mitch Ohlbaum photo

Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA

Unchanged. The 10-year is trading at 1.60 percent today but has been in a narrow range for the last few weeks. Treasurys were poised to rise but were pared by the reporting of new jobs by ADP, which fell short of estimates. The Fed and the market have been talking about inflation and I don’t think anyone believes the recent increase is anything more than a momentary blip on the inflation radar.

Logan Mohtashami photo

Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Unchanged. No matter how good the economic data has been, the bond market refuses to go in any direction for the time being. Jobs Friday is coming up, and the jobs data is about to make an epic run to get all the jobs lost to COVID-19. So, not much is going on in the bond market, and the stock market refuses to have a 10 percent correction. So for now, keep a close eye when the 10-year yield gets 1.75 percent or 1.55 percent.