Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For June 30-July 6 | Bankrate

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts are divided over where rates are headed in the coming week (June 30-July 6). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, about 27 percent percent say rates are going up, around 45 percent say rates are going down and approximately 27 percent say rates will remain the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Mortgage lenders are beginning to make weird choices. Interest rates will be down this week even if the market doesn't necessarily warrant it.

— Dan Green, Homebuyer.com

27% say rates will go up


Derek Egeberg photo

Derek Egeberg

Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona

Higher. The short-term ‘emotional bounce’ from last week’s Fed decision has been logically processed and as such, mortgage rates will continue to rise.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

After a sharp and unexpected increase in the price for 10-year Treasury notes last week, yields dropped noticeably. Since then, yields have been rising as the price on the 10-year once again settles. Long-term mortgage rates are closely tied to the yield on 10-year Treasuries. Thus, we should expect to see mortgage rates begin to climb again. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will increase.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. Recession may be all everyone is talking about, but without improvement on the inflation front, the risk in mortgage rates remains very much to the upside.

45% say rates will go down


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Dan Green

CEO, Homebuyer.com, Austin, Texas

Mortgage lenders are beginning to make weird choices. Interest rates will be down this week even if the market doesn't necessarily warrant it.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates [will] go down. Here's a parody based on the classic by Jefferson Airplane in 1967, ‘White Rabbit’: ‘And if bears go chasing rabbits. Then they know they're going to fall.’ Uncertainty lives. Expect fireworks as the 10-year yield drops below 3 percent in July with the emergence of a bull trend. Don’t be surprised if mortgage rates fall faster than the 10-year yield.

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Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York

Lower.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Lower. The 10-year yield is trying to stay above 3 percent as long as possible, even with some weaker economic data. However, the fact that we aren't above the highs of 2018 in a noticeable way speaks volumes. Even as the Fed talks about really pushing rates much higher this week, the bond market isn't rising in yields like it did earlier in the year.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Mortgage rates in the coming week will move depending on this week’s inflation report, the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures. The core PCE is the Fed’s preferred method of measuring inflation. I expect it to show a slight decrease in inflation year-over-year, so I will say mortgage rates will improve over the coming week.

27% say unchanged


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Dick Lepre

Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. With no BLS Employment Situation Report on Friday and a holiday on Monday, we should see a calm week. Markets will continue to have trouble adjusting to near-recession with sky-high inflation.

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Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, Mortgage300 Corporation, Dallas, TX

Rates will be unchanged. While uncertainty and volatility remain the norm, Fed Chair Powell speaks and says many things the markets like. Powell sees a path back to the 2 percent inflation reading without harming the strong labor market. This is helping mortgage bonds improve along with weak GDP readings. Inflation data will be released Thursday and could swing the markets either direction. In the absence of inflation data coming in hotter than expected, I think rates will hold steady. However, this is not a climate to be gambling. I would advise locking in your rate.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Unchanged. Volatility will continue to be the norm and with that interest rates should remain range bound. Consumer confidence dipped to its lowest level in 16 months while consumer expectations hit a nine-year low as Americans continue to deal with the reality of inflation hitting them in every corner of their wallet. Whether it’s housing costs, rent, gas and energy or strolling through the aisles of the grocery store, the consumer is getting drilled. Usually with high inflation, you’d think that interest rates would continue to climb higher, but with consumer expectations in the dumps and paychecks failing to keep up with inflation, there is simply less money to spend. Q1 GDP clocked in at -1.6 percent and there is no reason to expect that things are going to get better any time soon. That said, look for rates to bounce around but not really go far from here.