Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Aug. 5-11, 2021
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
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Most mortgage experts think rates will fall in the week ahead (Aug. 5-11). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 64 percent said rates will drop, while 18 percent said they would hold steady and another 18 percent said they will rise. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Up. Even if the employment report disappoints, the markets should see that inflation will remain elevated.
Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager,Academy Mortgage,Yuma, Arizona
Higher. The market has been oversold and the continued inflation numbers will pull rates higher. Like the cost of a gallon of gas, consumers will only notice the rise when they look backwards from the end of the year to now.
Rates may ease down slightly as variant concerns rattle the Treasury markets while inflation talk is off to the side for the moment. Should this continue to remain an issue it’s quite possible we retest the all time lows.
Long-term rates will go down this week. The worldwide concerns over the delta and other COVID-19 variants is driving more and more investors to the sidelines resulting in significant capital being reallocated to 10-year Treasurys. Higher 10-year prices cause lower 10-year yields. 10-year Treasury yields are down this week, and we can expect the same for 30-year mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates fall. Here's a parody based on the 2012 Katy Perry hit, “Wide Awake.” "While Bears were in the dark; Bulls were falling hard; With an open trade (They’re wide awake); How did Bears read the charts so wrong? (They’re wide awake)." Will treading water panic the bears or embolden them? Expect rates to fall.
Lower. The trend on bond yields has been lower. Today the ADP jobs report came out as a disappointment, but the ISM service report beat expectations. Bonds didn't move until some comments from the Federal Reserve boosted yields higher. However, Jobs Friday is coming up; keep your eye out how the 10-year yield closes on Friday. Remember, one stock market correction this year, and the 10-year yield can get under 1 percent in 2021.
Trend: Flat. While the picture for the next few months is for bullish (higher prices, lower yields) Treasury and MBS markets this week are likely to see a pause to catch their breath, having seen the 10-year yield below 1.2 percent. This assumes that nothing surprising happens regarding the pandemic.
Mortgage banker,Macoy Capital Partners,Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged. The 10-year opened at 1.132 percent and is currently at 1.208 percent. We are roughly back to where we were back in February. The big pressure this morning was non-farm payroll growth coming in at roughly 50 perecent of expected. This is partly due to so many jobs going unfilled. I was recently in Burlington, Vermont, home of the University of Vermont, and have never seen so many stores looking to fill positions. Additionally, the Delta variant of COVID-19 is sending shock waves through the world as many cities are taking steps back to requiring masking in public and everyone is wondering if even a temporary shut down may be in our future.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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