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Half of mortgage experts think rates will fall in the week ahead (July 29-Aug. 4). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 50 percent said rates will drop, while 30 percent said they hold steady and just 20 percent said they will rise. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Jul 29 - Aug 4
| Go up | 20% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 30% |
| Go down | 50% |
The Fed has lobbed the first verbal volley on inflation, but promised nothing, and they’re sticking to the ‘inflation is transitory’ story. As long as market participants buy that, it’ll keep rates low. But should doubts creep in, hold on to your hat.
— Greg McBride, Bankrate
20% say rates will go up
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The Fed has lobbed the first verbal volley on inflation, but promised nothing, and they’re sticking to the ‘inflation is transitory’ story. As long as market participants buy that, it’ll keep rates low. But should doubts creep in, hold on to your hat.
Elizabeth Rose
Sales manager, AmCap Mortgage, Dallas, TX
Mortgage rates will be higher. There are plenty of reports coming up that could make for a wild market ride this week - upcoming GDP figures followed by PCE inflation data. Mortgage bonds have been on a slow move higher, helping home loan rates improve slightly but could come under pressure following the FOMC meeting. I would be very happy taking today’s rates as they are between an eighth and a quarter of a percent lower than this time last year.
50% say rates will go down
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Ten-year Treasurys continue to decline steadily. Long-term mortgage rates have followed. World wide economic pessimism brought on by concerns over the Delta variant is sending large amounts of capital to the sidelines. This will result in lower 10-year yields and correspondingly lower 30-year mortgage rates in the coming week.
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA
Rates will be driven not by the Fed, not by actual inflation, not by jobs, but by anxiety as to how long the upward trend in COVID cases will last. If this leads to another round of shutdowns, we may have another recession. Even if COVID cases subside and shutdowns are minimal, anxiety will persist. Anxiety drives money to fixed-income securities.
Logan Mohtashami
Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California
A lot of talking about the Fed, and the bond market so far is yawning at 1.26%, even with the talk of the taper. Remember, when QE1 ended, bond yields fell. When QE 2 ended, bond yields fell. When QE3 was tapering to the end, and it was finished, bond yields fell. Economic growth is fine; we are early in the expansion, the data will slow down over time as this type of growth can't be sustained. The fiscal spending plans have been watered down through politics. We will eventually get a stock market correction at some point, and that can drive money into bonds and even take the 10-year yield below 1 percent with solid economic expansion data still with us.
30% say unchanged –
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania
Flat. They should rise but the economic data are raising some warning flags.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida
The Fed concluded their meeting today and announced they were standing pat. While the economy has been improving, we still aren’t where we’d like to be, but we’re a lot further down the road to recovery. Much is dependent on the progress of containing COVID, and with the Delta variant causing a lot of problems, time will tell where we land. In the meantime, look for rates to remain rangebound into next week while we await the employment report on Friday.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
Not much changed from the Fed statement at the conclusion of their two-day meeting from the statement at the end of the June meeting. There was one line about the economy making progress toward taper-target goals. But that doesn’t appear to be enough to start a sell-off in bonds from concerns about the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases. I think the increase in the number of COVID cases from the Delta variant will keep rates low in the coming week. But I don’t see them dropping further. Mortgage rates will be flat in the coming week.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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