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Mortgage experts mostly think rates will rise in the coming week (May 12-18). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 55 percent said rates are headed higher. Meanwhile, 27 percent predicted rates would fall and 18 percent said they would hold steady. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 12 - 18
| Go up | 55% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 18% |
| Go down | 27% |
Inflation may have peaked but is not decelerating sharply.
— Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors
55% say rates will go up
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Significant declines in the equity markets, seemingly out of control inflation, the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues from China and elsewhere, and an overly aggressive Fed, which will not be happy until housing prices respond, are all coming together to create significant uncertainty in the markets. All of this uncertainty can serve only to push mortgage rates up. Long-term mortgage rates will increase once again next week.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania
Up. Inflation may have peaked but is not decelerating sharply.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Vote: Up. More disappointment on the inflation front will power mortgage rates higher.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY
Higher.
Derek Egeberg
Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona
Higher. With the Fed selling off bonds, the market just can’t consume enough to maintain rates. The slide to higher rates will continue through the rest of the year at a minimum.
Dick Lepre
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage, Alamo, CA
Trend: Higher. Markets remain unpredictable. Inflation is persisting. Rates depend entirely on inflation. CPI print of 5/11 was lower than previous but a bit higher than expected.
27% say rates will go down
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida
Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the Smokey Robinson 1965 classic, “The Tracks of My Tears.” "So, take a good look at the screen. You'll see a smile looks out of place. If you look closer, it's easy to trace the tracks of the bears." Hedgers watch graphs of mortgage-backed securities, which show higher rates (or bear market) but have rates peaked. Additionally, the economic troubles in the E.U. and China give hope for lower rates near term.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com, Austin, Texas
Down. Mortgage rates have peaked for the season. Pay a discount point or two to hedge for the long-term.
Logan Mohtashami
Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California
Lower. It was only based on the 10-year yield now. We attempted to break over the 2018 highs on the 10-year yield and couldn't; The 10-year has tried to stay above 3.10 percent with no luck. Even with the hotter CPI print, yields rose first to 3.07 percent and then faded lower shortly after that. On a monthly basis, the 10-year yield looks to be the most oversold ever. So, just on the reaction of the 10-year yield after the hotter CPI prints, lower.
18% say unchanged –
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA
Unchanged. The 10-year is trading at 2.978 percent, which is up only 11 basis points from April 13 almost a month ago. It has been a slow and steady climb since March 1, when we were at 1.72 percent. The 10-year topped out at 3.13 percent before dropping back down below 3 percent this morning. I believe mortgage rates have topped out for the next few weeks as the market tends to over adjust when it comes to increases. U.S. inflation fell in April but core inflation (omitting food and energy) rose by 0.6 percent vs the expected 0.4 percent — not really significant. Overall still a confusing market as we all figure out if the inflation numbers will stick around.
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
After an initial rally in mortgage rates at the conclusion to the May FOMC, bonds sold off rather drastically pushing mortgage rates higher at the end of last week. However this week has seen a reversal with mortgage rates improving a good bit. Even after the CPI or inflation number came in a bit higher than was expected, bonds reversed their sell off and have rallied. While it’s too early to say the high in mortgage rates has been set, this is an encouraging development. People shopping for a home would be happy if rates just stopped going up. Because of the rally this week, I will say that mortgage rates will be flat in the coming week.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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