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About Bankrate's Mortgage Rate Variability Index

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Updated on Mar 22, 2026
Mortgage rates change often, and sometimes unpredictably. Our Mortgage Rate Variability Index aims to help you make sense of these changes as you navigate homebuying and refinancing decisions. The index considers how dramatically mortgage rates have changed over time and how much experts disagree about the future path of rates. A lower index reading reflects a calmer mortgage market with more consistent rate offers, while a higher reading means things are more volatile, with wider gaps between the rates lenders are offering. In general, when rates are highly variable, it becomes even more important to shop around for deals.

Mortgage Rate Variability Index - Week of March 16, 2026

The Mortgage Rate Variability Index rose to a 7 out of 10 as of March 16, 2026, up from 6 last week. Bankrate’s index scores mortgage rate variability on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being extremely low variability and 10 being high variability from lender-to-lender. 

Mortgage rates have jumped from where they were last month, from right around 6% to spiking near 6.4% on Friday, March 13. The war in Iran, and its impact on oil supply, has sent waves through the stock market. In addition, yields on the 10-year Treasury bond — which directly impact fixed-rate mortgages — have been on the rise since the outset of the conflict.

With a reading of 7 out of 10, the Mortgage Rate Variability Index is reflecting an opportunity for borrowers. The variability between lenders is relatively high, which means that borrowers who shop around are likely to get a better rate. As individual lenders balance risk with business needs, rate quotes between different lenders can be significantly different.

A closer look at this week’s index

This web chart illustrates how this week’s overall index reading of 7 breaks down by factor.

Variable
Current week
3/16
Week of
3/9
Variability score 7/10 6/10
Average 30-year mortgage rate
Info Icon
0.9 0.5
10-year Treasury yield
Info Icon
0.5 0.1
Lender rate spread
Info Icon
1.0 1.0
Disagreement in expert predictions
Info Icon
0.0 0.8

How we estimate mortgage rate variability

Our Mortgage Rate Variability Index is represented on a 1 to 10 scale, with 1 indicating little to no variability in mortgage rates and 10 indicating high variability. The index considers four key factors:

  • Average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Our average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate is derived primarily from banks and thrifts across hundreds of markets in the U.S. We collect these rates on a rolling basis and within specific borrower scenarios. Here’s more on our mortgage rate averages.
  • Average weekly 10-year Treasury yield: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, a broad economic indicator of investor sentiment.
  • Weekly rate spread among mortgage lenders advertising on Bankrate: The rate spread considers the difference between the highest and lowest rates advertised on Bankrate in a given week.
  • Disagreement in weekly expert mortgage rate predictions: Each week, we ask a pool of housing and mortgage market experts for their opinion on future mortgage rate movement: whether rates will increase, decrease or stay the same. Here are their latest predictions.

To determine our overall index reading, we look at how each of these four factors changed from the prior week, as well as how that compared to historical trends in variability.

Mortgage rate variability over time

Bankrate has been tracking mortgage rates for close to 40 years, and we believe that understanding longer-term trends can help you determine next steps in getting a loan. Here’s a look at our index in the past five weeks:

Tips to compare mortgage rates

  • Explore a variety of mortgage lenders. Your bank or credit union might be worth considering, but they aren’t the only options. Consider different types of lenders and their loan offerings. Some specialize in certain kinds of mortgages and borrowing situations, or might offer more conveniences or savings opportunities compared to your bank.
  • Shop around for several offers. Time and again, research has shown that borrowers save money by comparing more than one mortgage rate offer. We can help you shop around for rates tailored to your needs and credit profile.
  • Understand the APR. The APR, or annual percentage rate, includes both the interest rate for the mortgage plus fees, so it more accurately reflects the cost of the loan. Here’s more on the difference between APR and interest rate.

Learn more: Compare today's mortgage rate offers