Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 15 - 21, 2026

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

Well, we made it through the inflation data today. Expect slight upward pressure over the next week as the market gives back some of the rally induced by the hope of $200 billion of [government-sponsored enterprise mortgage-backed securities] purchases. That said, rates will stay in the low 6’s.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to trend down slowly. The lower-than-expected [Consumer Price Index] report has helped to allay fears of inflation rising, and President Trump's call to have [Fannie] and Freddie buy $200 billion in [mortgage-backed securities] has also contributed to the decline in rates. Concern for the independence of the Fed has limited the decline at the moment.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We are looking for rates to move lower in the week ahead, toward the lower end of their recent trading range, with [traders] continuing to digest the most recent economic and federal government policy announcements.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

It is hard to tell what will happen with mortgage rates in the short term, as Fannie and Freddie are dedicating $200 billion to purchasing [mortgage-backed securities] (MBS), because the timing and amount of these purchases [has] not been made clear. With that said, rates went down last week with the initial purchases of MBS. Thus, let’s go with rates will continue downward next week.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Down. $200 billion of mortgage bonds Fannie and Freddie are purchasing will definitely bring rates down.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

Interest rates for the last three months have been predominantly rangebound. When looking at the 10-year Treasury, rates have coagulated between 4.10-4.20%. Mortgage rates have had a nominally wider range, but [it's] still tight. Economic news has indicated that the economy has moderated at best, and employment numbers continue to show weakness. We're going to see a break lower this quarter, just not sure exactly when.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Lower. U.S. President Donald Trump recently directed [Fannie Mae and Freddic Mac] to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities in a stated effort to lower mortgage rates. The market responded with an almost immediate rate drop, and I believe the decline will continue for the next week, although I also expect that the rate decline will likely be limited and transitory.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

I would look for mortgage rates to be flat to lower in the coming week.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I think interest rates will remain stable this week. The economic data continues to send mixed signals. While inflation has eased from its highs, it hasn’t cooled enough to justify any aggressive moves, and the labor market remains relatively solid. That combination gives the Fed little reason to shift course in the near term. From a market standpoint, bond yields have been fairly steady, and lenders are taking a wait-and-see approach as they look for clearer direction from upcoming inflation reports and broader economic trends.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. Slightly higher-than-expected CPI failed to move markets.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

I expect rates to stay flat in this upcoming week. After a big dip last week, we will level out.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Flat: Rates are largely where they should be.