Each week, Bankrate surveys experts in the mortgage field to see where they believe mortgage interest rates are headed.
This week (Jan. 9-15), 46 percent of panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so; 23 percent think rates will fall; and 31 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
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Read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts below.
46% say rates will go up
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland
The recent rally or dip in mortgage rates ended abruptly last Friday with the release of the employment report. The headline number was much higher than expected and this helped alleviate some of the concern that was driving rates lower, namely that the economy was slowing down dramatically. Fed Chairman Jay Powell made comments that the markets took as dovish, which leads to a risk on rally that has benefited equities to the detriment of bonds. Looking forward, this risk on rally may have a little further to go, and bonds should suffer sending mortgage rates higher in the coming week.
Certified mortgage planning specialist and branch manager,
Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Arizona
Look for rates to edge higher as the market settles in.
Nancy Vanden Houten, CFA
Senior research analyst,
Stone and McCarthy Research Associates, New York
Rates will go higher.
Greg McBride, CFA
Senior vice president and chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
As the jobs report and wage growth illustrated, worries over an economic slowdown are very overblown.
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economics, Holland, Pennsylvania
Rates are on the rise.
Arcus Lending, San Jose, California
Mortgage Rates will go up. It’s been a very volatile start to the year for mortgage rates. After dipping to about a nine-month low, the rates have gone up in the last three days. Rising 10-year treasury yields and stock-market favoring comments from Fed officials have been the main contributor. Both these factors may extend into the next week. There is also talks of positive momentum in the US-China trade talks, which is another negative for the mortgage rates. Expect the mortgage rates to inch higher in the short-term.
23% say rates will go down
Robert A. Brusca
Fact and Opinion Economics, New York
Rates will drop.
Founding director and executive-in-residence of the O’Neil Center for Global Markets and Freedom SMU Cox School of Business; former chief economist, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas
Rates will fall slightly in the coming week.
Senior loan officer,
RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The techs are bullish (higher prices, lower yields) which should drive Treasury yields and mortgage rates down slightly in the coming week. The only domestic uncertainty is the partial shutdown.
31% say rates will remain unchanged
Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California
Rates will stay the same. There was some very crucial action last week. Like I talked about before, we needed to see a close below 2.62 percent but, more importantly, we needed to see follow-through action to get a clean break on yields but, instead, we got the exact opposite. The 10-year yield closed at 2.55 percent then the good jobs numbers reversed that action and yields shot up to 2.67 percent, currently at 2.72 percent today. We have a clear short-term range between 2.55 percent to 2.82 percent right now, keep an eye out on those levels but for rates to go down we really need to see weaker PMI data here in the U.S., because inflation expectations have stopped going down due to the stabilizing of oil prices.
Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, New York
Rates will be flat.
Senior vice president of LoanLogics, Trevose, Pennsylvania
Mortgage Rates remain unchanged. Here’s a parody of “Cold, Cold Heart,” originally written by Hank Williams in 1951, to explain the recent bear grip on the bull market : “Why can’t we free our doubtful trade and melt bear’s cold, cold heart.” The two-month drop in rates hit a wall (oops…barrier) when the 10-Year Treasury Note yield came close to 2.5 percent on January 4, 2019. Look for a struggle over the next week between international issues and domestic good news.
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
After falling to levels we hadn’t seen since spring, rates popped up a bit over the last week. Bonds and mortgage rates love uncertainty and the markets had been flooded with it and for the short term seem a little more predictable. We saw a strong jobs report last week and with lots of jobs yet to be filled, the economy should continue to do well even if people aren’t flocking to new iPhones. For the next week though, look for rates to remain relatively stable.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate’s panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.