Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Dec. 3-9, 2020
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
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Half of the experts on Bankrate's expert expect mortgage rates to remain flat in the week ahead (Dec. 3-9). Some 33 percent said rates will rise and 17 percent said rates will fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.
Rate trend index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Dec 3 - 9
Experts say rates will ...
Stay the same
Another week of steady as she goes for rates.
— Gordon Miller, Miller Lending Group
33% say rates will go up
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst,Stone & McCarthy Research Associates,New York, NY
Higher. Bond yields getting a bit excited with the possibility of a lame-duck congressional disaster relief package passed. With the vaccine around the corner, any additional disaster relief would be a plus for the American people. If the package is near $1 trillion or higher, look for that 10-year yield to finally have a 1 handle on it.
Mortgage rates go up. Here's a parody based on Electronic Dance Music of Swedish House Mafia hit "Don't You Worry Child" in 2012. "Fed Chairman said; Don't you worry, don't you worry child; See, Powell's got a plan to buy; Don't you worry, don't you worry now, yeah." With the Fed doing little, the markets might find momentary relief from the Fed's grip. Despite the COVID-19 talk, the markets see the global recovery continuing. Deflation in Europe and inflation in the U.S. kept the dollar bear trend in place. All of these factors lead to mortgage rates rising.
Rates will go lower. The mortgage and real estate businesses traditionally slow down over the holidays. Lenders have to sharpen their pricing pencils to keep 'em coming.
50% say unchanged –
Senior vice president, real estate lending,VyStar Credit Union,Jacksonville, Florida
Rates will stay the same. As we head into the new week after the holiday, there’s not too much excitement in the air. The bond market has been strong and mortgage rates are for the most part in-line with last week’s rates. For now rates are stable with minimum movement expected.
Rates should remain relatively unchanged in the coming week. This morning 10-year Treasurys spiked into the 9-handle at .918. They have spent most of the last month in the 8-handle and having little impact, for now, on mortgage rates. Long-term mortgage rates are really low and a move from .8 to .9 in 10-year Treasurys should not precipitate much change. I expect mortgage rates to remain relatively unchanged for the coming week.
Trend: Flat. Treasury and MBS markets have high volatility making weekly forecasting perilous. Any news of fiscal stimulus produces a wave of concern that there will be inflation. People are reading this incorrectly. Inflation happens when demand exceeds supply and there is little sign that fiscal stimulus is going to translate into such an expansion of spending as to exceed supply and cause inflation. People are going on the tradition that expanded money supply causes inflation but the current COVID-driven market has no precedent. Home prices are a different story. Thes
Unchanged. It has been said in the past that jobs drive economic growth and inflation. That said, it’s hard to fathom since March, we are still down roughly 10 million jobs and in a year-over-year look at the stock markets, we are up nearly 17 percent on the S&P 500, the 10 year Treasury yield has fallen from 1.85 percent to 0.95 percent and median home sale prices have risen 12 percent. While home prices have increased from $280,000 to $313,500, the principal and interest payment on a mortgage with 20 percent down would actually be less based on the decline in rates. Job growth continues to disappoint and Friday’s employment report is unlikely to impress. Look for rates to remain tight over the next week.
There has been a pretty big sell off in Treasurys to start December and we’ve seen a split in yields with the 10 year Treasury up .10 percent in yield. Mortgage-backed securities have sold off as well to start the month. The good news is that mortgage rates have hardly moved. I think this is because lenders have been sitting on high margins. Rates could have been a little lower given the prices on mortgage backed securities, but with so much business coming in lenders have been able to keep high margins and not reduce rates too much. This will allow rates to hold steady over the coming week, despite increases in the yields on Treasurys and mortgage backed securities. Mortgage rates flat in the coming week.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate's panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.
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