Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Jan. 21 - 27, 2021

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts were evenly split over where rates will go in the week ahead (Jan. 21-27). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, one third of respondents said rates would rise, another third said rates would fall and the final third said rates would remain the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Economically speaking, rates should remain pretty tight based on recent numbers.

— James Sahnger, C2 Financial Corporation

33% say rates will go up


Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

This week long-term mortgage rates will continue to rise slowly. Last week 30-year mortgage rates jumped to an average of 2.79 percent annually based on data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This is the highest rate since November 12, 2020 when FRED reported a 30-year mortgage rate national average of 2.84 percent annually. Last week’s increase in mortgage rates is most certainly tied to the recent rise in 10-year Treasurys. As Treasury rates continue to rise slowly, so will long-term mortgage rates.

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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

We could be looking at a volatile week with market reactions to the inauguration and any resulting disruptions that may occur. With more talk about a large stimulus package and inflation we may see a slight upward trend in rates this week although any movement should be minor.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: Up. We’ll see rates bobbing up and down in coming weeks amid weakening economic indicators and hopes for widespread stimulus.

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Ralph McLaughlin

Chief economist and senior vice president of analytics, Haus

Despite the stubbornness of rates despite the 10-year increasing, we're expecting the rate environment to rise modestly over the next several months.

33% say rates will go down


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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

It should surprise nobody that rates will continue to drop with the new explosion of unemployment claims.

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Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

Down. The push up in rate from the expected new stimulus plan was overdone.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the 1997 Savage Garden hit, To “The Moon & Back.” "Bonds will fly trades to the moon and back; If Bucks will, if Bucks will, fuel them." Recently, mortgage rates and Treasury yields dropped as the ICE Dollar Index rose. The dollar should rise about 1 percent more, so expect mortgage rates to fall five basis points near term. But the end is near for low rates; expect a significant rise in rates over the next nine months.

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Trend: Lower. The techs say lower. Markets may already have accounted for more stimulus and deficit. Fear of inflation misses the point that inflation happens when demand outstrips supply. The supply side is ready to react to any increase in demand caused by Treasury largesse to taxpayers. It's not as if they were giving everyone an amount sufficient to buy a new car.

33% say unchanged


Jennifer Kouchis photo

Jennifer Kouchis

Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

Rates will stay the same. As the dust somewhat settles, some are improving rates slightly and keeping additional movement at bay. Still, we’re awaiting the next big news to determine what the long-term impact will be. One update from last week, those that said the Fed will not be stepping in this time may be right based on the initial lack of action and commentary.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Unchanged. Economically speaking, rates should remain pretty tight based on recent numbers. Things could start to heat up as inflation expectations are rising as President Biden gets started with a new administration and additional stimulus is on the immediate horizon. Janet Yellen is urging Congress to “act big” and “big” will absolutely impact the country and rates going forward. If you haven’t refinanced yet, its time to get going.

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Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, AmCap Mortgage, Dallas, TX

Rates remain steady (unchanged). There are no big market movers on tap for the week ahead. All eyes and ears are focused on the stimulus and what it might look like. Currently, stocks are pretty euphoric and bonds are lower right now following incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s “go big” comments regarding the upcoming stimulus package. The stimulus will have an impact on bonds and mortgage rates in the weeks ahead. With the current rate environment, it makes sense to lock now. Any potential improvement is not worth the risk of higher rates.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Mortgages have been relatively flat over the last week. This despite President Biden announcing his desire for $1.9 trillion in additional stimulus last week. Many thought this would put upward pressure on rates because of its potential to increase inflation expectations and the added supply of Treasurys that will need to be sold to finance this additional deficit spending. However rates have remained low. I think markets expect the Fed to help absorb some of this additional debt and to do what it takes to keep rates low to promote economic recovery. Because of this I expect rates to stay flat or at their current levels for the coming week.