Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Jan. 14-20, 2021

Rate trend index

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Mortgage experts were mixed on where rates will go in the week ahead (Jan. 14-20). In response to Bankrate's weekly poll, 46 percent predicted a rate increase, 36 percent said rates would fall and 18 percent said they would remain the same. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Inflation concerns and added supply are weighing heavily on the bond market, setting the stage for higher rates.

— Elizabeth Rose, AmCap Home Loans

45% say rates will go up


Gordon Miller photo

Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Rates will continue to creep higher near term as renewed inflation worries seem to be the concern on the horizon. As with the past ten years I don’t agree this will actually be the case but waiting to take advantage of low rates may result in an unwanted surprise in the short term.

Ken H. Johnson photo

Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Long-term mortgage rates will move up slightly. 10-year Treasurys have been moving up steadily since early August. During this same time period, long-term mortgage rates have been trending downward. This pattern should not be happening and will not hold much longer. Long-term mortgage rates should begin to rise slightly in the coming week.

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA photo

Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA

CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, New York, NY

Higher.

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Jennifer Kouchis

Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

Rates will continue to increase slightly. With the Treasury still sitting above 1 percent we will continue to experience volatility in the market. This morning several lenders continued to negatively reprice as they react. Still, it’s too early to say what the true long-term impact will be at this time. Many say the Fed will not step in this time and even more want to know why COVID is not playing a bigger role in keeping the rates at bay.

Elizabeth Rose photo

Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, AmCap Mortgage, Dallas, TX

Rates will be higher. Inflation concerns and added supply are weighing heavily on the bond market, setting the stage for higher rates. Inflation is the enemy of mortgage bonds and added supply doesn’t help matters any. Tomorrow we will hear Biden’s stimulus plan which could possibly upset the markets as well. This is the time to secure your interest rate.

36% say rates will go down


Joel Naroff photo

Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

Down. Market has come too far too fast.

Jeff Lazerson photo

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Lower rates. COVID-19 is out of control. Folks are hunkering down. Layoffs will mount. Softening economy results.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Mortgage rates go down. Here's a parody based on the 2016 Katy Perry hit, Rise. "When, when stocks fall at our feet again; And the vultures all start circling; They're signaling, "You're out of time," But will bonds RISE?" With the dollar stabilizing and China showing its disdain for free markets by punishing Jack Ma by nationalizing Ant and Alibaba, expect U.S. stocks to falter and mortgage rates to fall. Silencing speech jeopardizes free markets.

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Vote: down. This week’s jump in bond yields is overdone and I expect rates will pull back in the coming days.

18% say unchanged


Dick Lepre photo

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

Trend: Flat. After several days of the sharpest increases in rates in months Treasury and MBS markets should calm. One party control of D.C. triggered belief that fiscal stimulus would increase and lead to inflation. Once we have a new occupant in the White House the discussion is likely to turn to tax increases to address the deficit. Markets will then ponder the effects of those and volatility will increase as uncertainty increases. The next six months will be trying.

Logan Mohtashami photo

Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Unchanged. That was a pretty wild week with bonds; we got as high as 1.18 percent on the 10-year yield and currently trading at 1.10 percent. These extreme moves don't happen too often, so we need to settle down on the bond market. However, the big takeaway from the last few days is that in time bond yields and rates should rise this year as long as the vaccination process is still positive. With the Democrats having control of the Senate, disaster relief will happen as long as we are dealing with COVID-19. As a country, the goal is to get the 10-year yield between the range of 1.33 to 1.60 percent for some time; this means we are making good economic progress against the virus.