Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Aug. 13-19, 2020

Rate trend index

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In the week ahead (Aug. 13-19), 67 percent of the experts on Bankrate's panel predict rates will rise, while 33 percent expect rates to hold steady. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

Mortgage-backed securities have sold off pretty dramatically in the last few days. This is sending mortgage rates higher.

— Michael Becker

67% say rates will go up

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Higher-than-expected inflation readings have jolted bond yields out of the past few weeks’ tight range. Expect a bump in mortgage rates to follow.

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., San Francisco

The techs are bearish signaling lower prices and higher yields. We could see the 10-year yield move up to 0.74 percent. To some extent the selling of 10- and 30-year debt on Aug. 11 may have been a result of a need to free up cash to buy the considerable issuance of new debt in a month where some market participants are on vacation. Selling Treasury debt in August is like selling Christmas trees in July. The bearish daily tech could continue through Aug. 19. One thing necessary to revive economic hope is Congress ending the stimulus impasse.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

Finally, yields make a snapback from dripping lower due to the stalling of the government disaster relief package. Let's be honest here -- not too much has been happening in the bond market for months now. Today's CPI data was a bit hotter than anticipated but working from the pandemic low. In general, yields have been higher than 0.62 percent for most of this crisis. So unless we get a bad headline from the China talks, or the government disaster relief package that could send money out of stocks into the bonds, this recent move in yields should stick, which would create a tad uptick in pricing.

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Trevose, Pennsylvania

Here's a parody based on Duran Duran's 1993 hit "Come Undone": " Fed tries to stay blind; To the buys and sells outside; Hey charts, stay wilder than the wind; And blow trades in to cry; Who do yields need, who does Fed love; When they come undone." Do not be surprised if 10-year Treasury note yields rise. If they do, then expect mortgages rates to rise more. Why? Because the Fed will step back from supporting mortgage-backed securities and allow the relationship between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates to move towards historical norms.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

We are back above the six-handle for the 10-year Treasurys. Therefore, we can expect to see a corresponding rise in long-term mortgage rates.

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Jennifer Kouchis

Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

Rates will have a small spike. It looks as if record lows could come to a halt from all the theories out there, but what is more likely is a small spike at least for now! The 10 Year Treasury Yield had a strong surge today, but already seems to have leveled back down as Bond Yields are steadily increasing. I feel strongly, we will continue to see small moves either way until we receive our fate as determined by the news on the stimulus and pandemic when it comes to future rates.

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Robert Brusca

Chief economist, Facts and Opinions Economics, New York

Rates will rise.

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Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners, Los Angeles, CA

The 10-year is up again, to .680 percent, after scraping bottom Aug. 4 at .508 percent. Rates increased across the board as CPI came in 50 percent higher than expected at 0.6 percent vs. 0.4 percent. This will give lenders the opportunity to bump rates slightly in the short term. We all know the market hates uncertainty and Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris for the VP slot takes the guessing out of the equities market and giving that a boost as well. The Treasury Department is also holding a record auction later today of $38 billion in 10-year notes, which could put pressure on rates, but it is expected all will be well received by U.S. and foreign buyers.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Mortgage-backed securities have sold off pretty dramatically in the last few days. This is sending mortgage rates higher. Whether this is simply a correction from overbought conditions in the mortgage-backed securities market over the last few weeks or the beginning of rates moving higher and higher, only time will tell. But mortgage rates will be higher in the coming week.

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Joel Naroff

President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors, Holland, Pennsylvania

The pixie dust is spreading wildly on Wall Street and everyone Believes!

0% say rates will go down

None of our experts predicted rates will drop.

33% say unchanged

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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Rates should trade in a narrow range as headwinds continue to blow away any sign of higher mortgage rates. Beware of the costs involved for the low low rates, as lower-cost options are available.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

The 10-year Treasury popped up to 69 basis points from the low of 51 basis points last week, the second lowest we have seen. The rally we have enjoyed got tired, and the most recent gains were given back. That said, rates are still at near record lows and should remain pretty tight over the next week.

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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

The Fed has pumped a lot of liquidity into the system. Money is almost free as well-qualified borrowers can get a 30-year fixed at 2.375 percent with a one-point cost.

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Ralph McLaughlin

Chief economist and senior vice president of analytics, Haus

With the recent jump in the 10-year Treasury, we expect rates to hold steady or even tick up a bit if the rise is sustained.

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Elizabeth Rose

Sales manager, AmCap Mortgage, Dallas, TX

News of a possible vaccine, coupled with hotter-than-expected-inflation numbers and plenty of supply, sent the mortgage bond market over a cliff, pushing rates slightly higher this week. The bond market was overdue for a correction. The question now becomes, is this just a temporary correction or the beginning of a new trend to higher rates? The good news is we are near a support level that should hold in the week ahead, keeping mortgage bonds steady and rates unchanged.