Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 12 - 18, 2026

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

In the last seven days of reporting, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has been declining. However, the spread between 10-year notes and 30-year mortgage rates has increased more than the decline in the 10-year. Thus, what we gained with one hand, we lost even more with the other. Next week, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to increase.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We are expecting rates to drift higher within their recent trading range in the week ahead, as traders continue to evaluate the labor market.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

With weakness in employment data, I’d look for lower rates.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Consistently weak or, at best, flat jobs reports is a sign of a weakening economy. This portends lower rates.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

Another [Bureau of Labor Statistics] report that seems more like a B, without an L [and] S report. The report stated that 130,000 jobs were created in January, which is only 50,000 less than [in] all of 2025. In 2025, 11 out of 12 months were revised lower, and it won't be a surprise when this one is, too. The sad thing is markets and Fed members react on this core component of economic activity, and it simply is no longer a reliable statistic. I look for rates to be nominally lower next week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

I fully expect rates to hold steady in the week ahead. This doesn’t mean we will be without volatility, but overall rates will remain constant, with slight bumps up and down.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I think interest rates will remain stable this week. The data we’re seeing doesn’t point strongly in either direction. Inflation has improved, but [it’s] still above where the Fed wants it, and the labor market continues to show enough strength to keep policymakers cautious. That balance usually leads to rates holding steady rather than moving sharply. From a market perspective, bond yields have been relatively flat, and lenders are largely in wait-and-see mode, reacting carefully to each new data point. Until there’s a clearer signal — either a meaningful drop in inflation or a noticeable slowdown in the economy — I expect rates to stay within a narrow range.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Mortgage rates remain locked in a narrow range even after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Payrolls came in at 130,000 versus 70,000 forecast, and unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, yet the 10-year Treasury is only modestly higher, a sign the market had already priced in resilience and sees no urgency for the Fed to cut. Until inflation meaningfully softens or economic data shifts decisively, rates are likely to hold near current levels rather than break lower.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

The market absorbed the jobs data surprise this morning. Expect rates to be relatively unchanged if [Consumer Price Index] data on Friday is in line.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Over the next week, I expect mortgage rates to remain mostly unchanged, with a possible modest upward movement driven by changes in the 10-year Treasury rate. Unless we see meaningful surprise inflation data, labor reports or Fed communication, I don’t see a strong catalyst for rates to move substantially lower. Daily fluctuations are likely, but a significant drop in mortgage rates over the coming week is not something I’m expecting at this point.

Bennie Waller

William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama

Mortgage rates remain "sticky" and likely to remain unchanged.