Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for April 2 - 8, 2026

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

Until something changes with the war and the inflation outlook, the path of least resistance is higher.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Mortgage rates are showing some upward pressure again this week, and it’s not coming out of nowhere. Inflation concerns, fueled by global tensions and rising energy prices, are keeping Treasury yields elevated, which is translating directly into higher borrowing costs. Even with the Fed on pause, the market isn’t fully buying into a near-term rate-cut story. For now, expect rates to drift higher or remain stubbornly elevated as volatility continues.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are slowly starting to drop again as hope for the end of the Iran conflict grows and oil prices moderate. Mortgage rates are inflation-sensitive, and as oil prices decline, mortgage rates will follow suit.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

With the situation in the Middle East calming, we should see less concern about the supply and price of oil. Lower rates should result.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. With Operation Epic Fury drawing to a close, expect the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to follow. Hence, long-term anticipated inflation continues to trend down slowly.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I think rates will drift lower in anticipation of a more stable geopolitical environment.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I think rates will stay steady this week. The market appears to be in a holding pattern right now, with most of the recent economic data already priced in. Inflation is easing, but not at a pace that would push the Fed to act immediately, and while the labor market is showing some signs of softening, it remains relatively resilient. That combination doesn’t create a strong catalyst for rates to move meaningfully in either direction. In my view, lenders and investors are taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach, especially with ongoing uncertainty around the timing of any Fed policy shift. Unless there’s a surprise in upcoming data, I expect rates to remain stable, with only minor day-to-day fluctuations driven by normal market activity.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

In my commentary last week, I noted that while rates were likely to remain unchanged overall, we could expect meaningful day-to-day volatility. That outlook proved accurate, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.18% over two days before declining 0.22% in the following three days. Much of this movement continues to be driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and its impact on oil prices. At the same time, bond prices have found support from ongoing signs of economic softness, including a weakening labor market and declining consumer sentiment. Looking ahead, Friday’s Employment Report will be a key data point. I expect it to reinforce the current trend of labor market weakness, which could help keep downward pressure on rates in the near term.