Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Dec. 3 - 9, 2025

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

We have some forces at play which are in opposition to one another, including rising confidence that the Fed will cut short-term rates this month, along with some economic data pointing to resilience. I’d look for long-term yields to rise a bit, and that would be reflected in mortgage rates.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

The Fed is going to drop rates one-quarter point next week. Big bond market rally in the works.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

The jobs market sucks, rents are coming down, and the Fed is going to blink. Mortgage and bond traders can read the room, and the next move isn't higher in rates — it's lower. For the next week, I believe rates will trend down slightly by a couple of basis points.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

The market feels like it’s in a holding pattern, with most investors and lenders waiting for clearer direction from the Federal Reserve. Recent economic data shows steady, but uneven, progress on inflation and a gradually cooling labor market — enough to ease some upward pressure on rates, but not enough to create a decisive move lower. As a result, I expect mortgage rates to stay relatively stable. There may be minor day-to-day fluctuations driven by bond market activity, but [there's] nothing that suggests a meaningful shift in rate trends. In my view, the real movement will come once the Fed provides a clearer signal on the timing and pace of any future policy adjustments.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Rates in December tend to be volatile, because many would-be market participants are away from their desks. Volatile but flat.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

The market is currently reacting to both updated economic news and stock market highs. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at their meeting. Most importantly, the market volume typically slows in December, which also does not bode well for rates to fall.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

The 10-year Treasury rate jumped up last week, and mortgage rates bounced with it. Bond markets have been a little more volatile than usual following the holiday break, so that may keep rates up. Most of all, the market reaction to the anticipated Fed rate cut will probably dictate an increase or decrease in mortgage rates. We will see if bond markets increase more or if the anticipated rate cut anchors long-term rates down. My guess is that rates will remain stable over the next week unless we see some surprise macroeconomic data. 

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

All eyes are on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures and Consumers Price Index data. Expect little change in mortgage rates if those are in line with consensus estimates.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

The doldrums are a part of the world’s oceans characterized by long periods of calm winds but punctuated by violent storms.  Since early September, long-term mortgage rates have experienced a period of calm, with rates hovering around 6.25% for 30-year lending.  It is hard to tell when the storm will come, pushing rates higher or lower.  However, that time is probably not going to happen in the next several days.  Therefore, we should expect no substantive change in mortgage rates in the next week.

Nicole Rueth

Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO

Mortgage rates are likely to stay in a tight range until the Fed meets next week, but the pressure is building. A shock drop in ADP private payrolls (–32k vs. +40k expected) is signaling a softer labor market, especially among small businesses, and the Fed is now expected to cut rates in December unless inflation or jobs data surprises. But if Powell comes out hawkish instead, expect rates to bounce fast and volatility to return.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Flat. Markets waiting for Godot or the name of the next Fed chair, whichever comes first. 

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will remain rangebound as the markets digest the latest data reports and wait for the Fed’s next move.