Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for April 11 - 17, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 64% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 14% |
| Go down | 21% |
Expect mortgage rates to rise in the coming week, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 64 percent of respondents predict rates will go up over the next week. Just 21 percent believe rates will drop, and 14 percent believe rates will hold steady.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.08 percent as of April 10, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up slightly from last week’s average of 7.05.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of April 11 - 17, 2024
| Go up | 64% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 14% |
| Go down | 21% |
Inflation may have slowed, but prices are still significantly higher than they were pre-pandemic. I don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the very near future.
— Sean Salter
Middle Tennessee State University
64% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are marching higher this week. This week’s stronger-than-expected CPI report shows that inflation is moving higher. As such, mortgage rates will follow suit. Hopes for a June rate cut are fading quickly.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I expect rates to rise in the week ahead as traders reassess the likely timing of summer rate cuts.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, Guild Mortgage , Yuma , Arizona
Data, true data, does not lie. Spending on debt to survive is not sustainable. Both government debt and consumer credit card debt are at all-time highs. Both parties' spending is still borrowed money chasing real goods, pushing inflation higher. The only “lever” the Fed can pull to slow all of the above is raising interest rates. Look for rates to rise through the end of the year.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
The issue of inflation remains unsettled. This is putting upward pressure on mortgage rates through the yield on 10-year Treasurys. An increase in Treasury yield pushes up mortgage rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates should increase once again, and we will be back in a mortgage market with 30-year mortgage rates above 7 percent.
Allison Kaminaga
Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI
Mortgage rates will rise. CPI inflation just came in higher than expected for March. Given the recent strong jobs report, the Fed can afford to be patient with rate cuts.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The inflation numbers were bad, and both bond yields and mortgage rates are bouncing higher in response to what is now an uncertain timetable on when — or if — the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. Inflation may have slowed, but prices are still significantly higher than they were pre-pandemic. I don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the very near future; however, there are some other signs of economic slowdown and stagnation, and that may muddy the water when it comes to Federal Reserve action. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen pretty consistently since the start of the new year. Taking all that into account, I don’t think that the trend in rates will be anything other than higher until we have a major shift in Fed policy.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Higher.
21% say rates will go down
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
Mortgage rates have continued to spike after the release of the CPI, or Consumer Price Index, which showed higher headline inflation as well as core inflation. I think mortgage rates are due for a break or a rally considering the rise in mortgage rates over the last couple [of] months. Mortgage rates [will be] lower in the coming week.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio
Down. The trend is your friend. Homebuyers will get lower mortgage rates again this week.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Down. Rates are getting a little high.
14% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Inflation has been higher than the desired 2 percent. The Fed’s overnight rate is keeping rates high. Look for the 30-year rate to stay just above 7 percent.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA
Unchanged. The 10-year [Treasury] is trading at 4.50 percent today — the high for the year. At the beginning of this year, I don't think anyone would have thought we would be anywhere above 4 percent by what is almost mid-April. It has been a bumpy opening to 2024. We have gone from 3.8 percent in Jan. to 4.50 percent today and everywhere in between. Inflation has continued to be stubborn, and employment has been high. Until we see some relief from inflation, don't expect the Fed to make any moves nor the bond market. I do not think we will see any movement in rates until mid-June.