Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 5 - 11, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are on the rise this week, as higher oil prices are inflationary and are pushing bond yields higher. The flight to security didn’t happen with the new conflict in Iran. We eagerly await the jobs report and retail sales reports as the next driver for mortgage rates.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

The Middle East conflict has raised inflation risk, and that’s being reflected in the yield of the 10-year Treasury. As [a] result, mortgage rates have edged up from more than three-year lows.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Unfortunately, this is an easy call. Geopolitical pressures are driving up both the risk premium for long-term mortgages and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, leaving mortgage rates with nowhere to go but up. Expect rates to rise next week.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. The war against Iran is causing rates to rise. Usually though, there is a flight to quality in times of war — like U.S. Treasuries.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Higher. Conflict in the Middle East creates massive uncertainties which drives up the cost of borrowing.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Prediction: slightly up. Mortgage rates have been hovering near an important psychological level for buyers, and markets rarely move in a straight line. After the recent improvement in rates, I expect we may see a modest move upward in the week ahead, as bond markets digest recent economic data and investors take profits from the recent rally. That said, the broader trend still suggests rates are finding a more stable range than we’ve seen over the past two years, which should help support buyer confidence as we move deeper into the spring market.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. Although mortgage market participants have been working to drive rates down, the military action against Iran has helped push the 10-year Treasury rate higher, and I expect mortgage rates to rise as well. In my opinion, how much rates move and how long they stay elevated depends on the Trump administration’s willingness and ability to articulate a strategy and exit path from that conflict.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I’m watching interest rates closely, and my sense is that we might see them edge slightly lower. Rates have been holding relatively steady over the past few weeks, but there’s been a subtle downward drift in the broader market. Bond yields, which heavily influence mortgage rates, have softened a bit recently as investors weigh economic growth and inflation expectations. That tends to push rates down gradually rather than sharply. I also think the market is pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may remain patient or even move toward easing later this year. That expectation alone creates a slight downward pressure on long-term rates, including mortgages. On the other hand, there are always potential surprises in economic data, inflation readings or geopolitical tensions that could keep rates from falling or even nudge them higher.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down …. Expect April crude oil futures to fall below $60 when Strait of Hormuz traffic increases, pushing mortgage rates down.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

As I've recently stated, something unexpected was required to knock us out of rangebound trading. The attacks on Iran sparked fears of inflation and uncertainty in trade with the shipping lanes for oil. We shall see how long this lasts, but in the meantime, I expect things to remain somewhat flat.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Mortgage rates remain barely above last week’s lows despite a steady stream of headlines, including Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chair, the [trigger leads bill] taking effect, global tariffs and rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Economic data has also failed to move markets much, with [the ADP Employment report] slightly beating expectations and [the Institute for Supply Management Services report] coming in stronger, yet bonds remain largely unchanged after early-week volatility. With markets absorbing a lot of news but showing little reaction, rates continue to trade in a tight range for now.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

All eyes on the 10-year Treasury and upcoming employment and inflation data. For now, the worst seems to be behind us, and I do not expect a material change in rates through the [Consumer Price Index] data next week.