Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for October 15 - 21, 2026
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Rate-watchers polled by Bankrate expect rates to increase in the coming week.
A full 57% of experts think rates will go up, while 14% believe they'll stay flat, and another 29% believe they'll decrease.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.47% as of October 14, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Explore mortgage ratesRate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of October 15 - 21, 2026
| Go up | 57% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 14% |
| Go down | 29% |
September’s Consumer Price Index ran hot. Gas prices did most of the damage, but core inflation also came in above forecast, and the bond market reacted immediately. The 10-year Treasury is now back above 5.3%. Mortgage rates take their cue from the 10-year, not from the [Federal Reserve]. When it moves like that, I don’t need a crystal ball. I need a calculator. My call is that the 30-year fixed climbs again next week, likely into the mid-7s.Denise McManus, Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
57% say rates will go up
Denise McManus
Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
September’s Consumer Price Index ran hot. Gas prices did most of the damage, but core inflation also came in above forecast, and the bond market reacted immediately. The 10-year Treasury is now back above 5.3%. Mortgage rates take their cue from the 10-year, not from the [Federal Reserve]. When it moves like that, I don’t need a crystal ball. I need a calculator. My call is that the 30-year fixed climbs again next week, likely into the mid-7s.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
T-Bill rates have fallen, but mortgage rates are still elevated. I expect that they will continue to be elevated, and even move higher, over the next week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Rising inflation and oil prices continue to put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Ongoing attacks in the Middle East have caused oil prices to surge again. The most recent CPI report also reported that inflation has risen again, and the gains are broad based, which makes it hard to argue that inflation will cool sharply in the coming months. As a result, mortgage rates continue their march higher.
Jeff Lazerson
President, MortgageGrader
There is no letup in inflation due to the ongoing war with Iran and all of its consequences.
29% say rates will go down
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go lower. [With] declining volatility and increased certainty about jobs, the dollar and inflation support lower rates.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I expect mortgage interest rates to trend slightly lower this week. After several weeks of upward pressure, I believe the market may be approaching a period of modest correction, as Treasury yields begin to ease and investors reassess the economic outlook. While inflation remains a concern, I believe much of that uncertainty has already been reflected in current mortgage pricing. The latest economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve will certainly influence the bond market, but I see an opportunity for some modest relief following the recent increases.
14% say unchanged–
