Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for May 14 - 20, 2026
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Expect rates to continue to rise, say the majority of rate-watchers who participated in Bankrate’s poll this week.
Of those polled, 64% say rates will increase in the coming week. The remaining third of respondents are split between those who expect rates to decrease and stay unchanged.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.46% as of May 13, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Explore mortgage ratesRate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 14 - 20, 2026
| Go up | 64% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 18% |
| Go down | 18% |
Mortgage rates will stay elevated until there is a verified peace agreement in Iran, and this week's inflation data makes that case even clearer .... Markets are now pricing in a 30% probability of a [Federal Reserve] rate hike by year-end, and until oil stabilizes and the Iran conflict resolves, there is no data on the horizon that gives the bond market permission to move rates lower.Nicole Rueth, Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage, Denver, CO
64% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will continue to rise this coming week, as hot inflation data has raised the yield on the 10-year bond to its highest level of 2026. With oil trading over $100 a barrel and no end in sight to the war in Iran, mortgage rates seem to have nowhere to go but up.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
The risk of holding mortgages as an investment has remained pretty steady for the last 30 business days. Unfortunately, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 17 basis points. Long-term mortgage rates follow these two benchmarks. Thus, we can expect mortgage rates to rise in the coming week due to the noticeable increase in yield for 10-year Treasurys.
Denise McManus
Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
Mortgage rates are like a balloon right now — they’re not flying away, [and] they’re not dropping, either, but they are ready to pop! This week, expect rates to stay about the same or move slightly higher …. Why? Inflation is still too high, and the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to cut rates yet. There’s also pressure from global events, like rising energy prices, which can push rates up instead of down. Bottom line: Lots of windy conditions for this balloon causing volatility! Don’t wait for a big drop this week. The more realistic expectation is steady with a slight upward bias.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. This week’s news that last period’s inflation clocked in higher than target is not good news for consumers, and it’s not good news for anyone calling for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the ongoing conflict in Iran driving oil prices higher, inflation will likely continue to spike. I expect all interest rates to move higher over the next week, and I expect mortgage rates to be no exception.
Nicole Rueth
Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO
Mortgage rates will stay elevated until there is a verified peace agreement in Iran, and this week's inflation data makes that case even clearer. April [Consumer Price Index] came in at 3.8%, the highest reading since May 2023, and today's [Producer Price Index] headline surged to 6.0% annually against a 4.9% forecast, the worst spike since the pandemic. Markets are now pricing in a 30% probability of a [Federal Reserve] rate hike by year-end, and until oil stabilizes and the Iran conflict resolves, there is no data on the horizon that gives the bond market permission to move rates lower.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
Hard to think we'll see a move lower this week. Expect the trend to continue and rates [to] end the week higher.
18% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
We are looking for rates to decline in the week ahead, as traders continue to react to developments in the Middle East and digest the current inflation environment.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go down. Iran’s situation has not changed. Oil producers shut in wells when they run out of storage, and analysts say Iran will hit its limit in May. When a deal happens, expect the 10-year yield to drop to the lower end of its range of 4.50 and 4.00.
18% say unchanged–
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate
I’m looking for rates to be little changed in the near term. At issue is the status of the Iran War, and that appears to be persistent with no real progress in sight to resolve the sources of supply-chain disruptions fanning inflation and fears of the same.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think mortgage rates will stay steady this week. The market continues to balance mixed economic signals. Inflation has eased somewhat, which has helped calm concerns in the bond market, but it hasn’t cooled enough for the Federal Reserve to shift policy aggressively. At the same time, the labor market remains relatively resilient, which supports the view that the Fed will continue taking a cautious approach. We’ve also seen rates trend modestly lower recently due to easing inflation concerns, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in oil prices are still creating volatility in the markets. In my view, those competing factors should keep mortgage rates relatively range-bound this week, with only minor day-to-day movement rather than any significant shift higher or lower.