Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for August 6 - 12, 2026

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

The number that actually matters this week: [The Consumer Price Index] drops Wednesday, August 12. If inflation runs hot, expect the September-hike chatter to get louder and rates to firm up. If it cools, we get some breathing room — but I wouldn't bet a client's rate lock on "cools." My take: Rates are volatile and [I] predict them to inch up slightly over the week ahead. This isn't the week to wait and see. A [Federal Reserve] this divided, with inflation data landing midweek, is not a setup for rates drifting lower on their own.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

My prediction: Expect rates to end the week higher after some positive news on the Iran-conflict front … combined with a better-than-expected employment report.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Rates have been moving up, as last week saw the highest rates in a year. Home prices are getting too high and getting unaffordable in too many places. We are nearing a top for prices and rates.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

10-year Treasury yields are up week over week. At the same time, the spreads between 10-year Treasuries and 30-year mortgage rates are down by similar amounts, making this call a toss-up. Intuition tells me rates will be down.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. The 10-year yield remains stuck between 4.80 and 4.20. When the Iran situation becomes placid, bond yields will fall. However, wild moves within the range remain likely.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Big week this week with jobs numbers from ADP and [the Bureau of Labor Statistics]. ADP numbers were soft on Wednesday which may be a prelude to BLS on Friday. Oil is down $10 a barrel from last week, and the on-again-off-again talks are apparently on. Technicals are favorable for rates to continue to decline as well. All this good news for rates can all be for naught if rockets start flying back and forth with Iran.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I think the market has adjusted from the overcorrection — no change in the upcoming week.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

This week, I expect mortgage interest rates to remain relatively flat. The market continues to balance mixed economic signals, as inflation is easing but remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target, and the economy is resilient enough to keep investors cautious about the timing of future policy changes. I believe mortgage rates are waiting for a stronger catalyst before making a meaningful move in either direction. While we could see some day-to-day fluctuations, I expect rates to end the week close to where they began. For buyers and homeowners, focusing on long-term affordability and finding the right opportunity remains more important than trying to time the market.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. With the [Federal Open Market Committee] holding the Fed's short-term rate unchanged and recent economic data reflecting some disappointing news, mortgage rates are currently at or near 12-month [highs]. I do not expect major movements in mortgage rates unless we see some action taken by the Fed or some economic data — specifically, nonfarm payroll data — that paints a significantly different picture than we already see.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Strong corporate earnings, resilient consumers and a stable labor market have all eyes on inflation. A deal to open the strait will hopefully offer relief on rising inflation, but it has yet to be confirmed, and rates will rangebound until that deal gets done.