Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 30 - August 5, 2026

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Significant intraday swings in the 10-year bond market are creating high levels of uncertainty among bond investors, leading to an average spread of over 222 basis points. The average spread typically rests around 150 to 175 basis points. Long and the short of it, 30-year mortgage rates are rising and will, unfortunately, continue to do so. Next week, we should expect to see another increase in long-term mortgage rates.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Mortgage rates will continue to move up due to the escalating Iran war.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Mortgage rates have been rising, although they are at lower levels than a year ago. Until we get some clarity on what Warsh's [Federal Reserve] is going to do, I expect markets to continue to expect the worst rate-wise. With the rise in U.S. Treasury rates over the past month, I expect mortgage rates to continue to climb over the next week, following Treasuries and possibly moving closer to last year's levels.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

The earthquake in Japan will sidetrack money, some of which would have purchased U.S. Treasury and mortgage debt.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will continue to rise this week, as the markets digest the results of the latest Fed meeting and press conference. While the Fed did not change rates at the July meeting, the expectation of a rate hike at the September meeting [is] growing. Renewed unrest in the Middle East has caused oil prices to rise again, adding fuel to the rate-hike fire.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Trump usually is optimistic for a few days, and oil prices and rates fall. Then reality sets in, and oil prices and rates rise. We are in the optimistic period.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

The Fed held rates steady, but the split vote was a tell. The 10-year Treasury just tagged its highest level since January 2025, and that kind of spike rarely holds forever. Rates have a habit of snapping back after sharp moves, and I think we’re due for that reset. Oil and inflation fears tied to the Iran conflict could stir things up, but for now, I see rates drifting lower over the next week.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

The 10-year yield remains stuck between 4.80% and 4.20%, so it’s time to revisit 4.20. Expect the Iran and Ukrainian wars to end before the end of the year …. Look out for wild moves over the next few months.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

The market is in a wait-and-see mode, heavily focused on the Fed's commentary for future guidance. Inflation has cooled from its highs, but it still hasn't fully reached the Federal Reserve's target. At the same time, the labor market has shown signs of gradually slowing, creating a balancing act for policymakers. Because of those competing economic forces, I believe lenders are likely to hold mortgage rates within their current range while they wait for clearer economic data in the weeks ahead.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Englewood , CO

The Fed held rates steady today at 3.5% to 3.75%, though three voting members dissented in favor of a hike, a signal the committee is not unified and the door to a hike remains open. The statement acknowledged elevated inflation tied to energy and Middle East supply shocks, with overnight attacks, resuming on both sides, keeping oil and yields under pressure. Until the Iran conflict finds a lasting resolution, rates will continue to drift in a narrow range with any improvement remaining fragile.