Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for October 8 - 14, 2026

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

After developing four predictive models and employing a recent history of 30-year rates, 10-year Treasury yields and a measure of investor risk for holding mortgages, all four indicate that 30-year rates will rise by end of business Oct. 12.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

The 10-year Treasury has been battered over the last six weeks, climbing from 4.66% to 5.36% on Wednesday, a striking 70-basis-point jump. The 10-year hasn't been this high since April 2002, and 30-year fixed rates haven't been this high since August 2000. Normally, favorable Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers and weak jobs data would bring at least some improvement in rates. Right now, though, too many crosscurrents and concerns are weighing on the markets for any relief to take hold. Stochastics are overbought, which suggests a reversal could be near, but I don't expect one over the next week.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to rise, as bond yields are at the highest level since 2002. Ongoing concern over inflation is the primary culprit, as oil prices remain high.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Rates have moved consistently higher over the past few weeks. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate following a decidedly upward trend, I believe that mortgage rates will follow and continue to rise through the end of the year, anticipating additional Fed rate hikes.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We anticipate rates will drift higher in the week ahead, with traders continuing to react to robust domestic growth as well as the continued inflation picture.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage interest rates to trend slightly higher this week. The continued rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, combined with persistent inflation concerns and higher energy prices, is keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates. I don't expect another dramatic increase, but the bond market remains cautious, particularly as investors look for more clarity from the Federal Reserve on the direction of monetary policy. Until we see convincing evidence that inflation pressures are easing, I believe it will be difficult for mortgage rates to make a meaningful move lower.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

As Wall Street continues to rise and investors pour more money into the equities side of the scale, watch for mortgage rates to rise. Expect this trend to continue through the end of the year.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

While the rout seems to be excessive, markets tend to overshoot, and this one may not be over just yet.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Any substantive news about lower inflation will drive rates down.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Look for rates to stay flat and annoyingly high.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect rates to be flat for the next week.