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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
For the coming week, (Oct. 7-13), 38 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise; 31 percent think rates will fall; and 31 percent think rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts. Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
Barry Habib CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
This is a tough one ahead of Friday’s jobs report. The report was delayed in an attempt to get more accurate information ahead of the Nov. 3 Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed will put a lot of weight into this report when deciding if it should do another round of quantitative easing.
I think rates will move sideways in the days ahead, and perhaps worsen on a reasonable jobs number. And even if the jobs report is not good, and the Fed does QE2, rates would initially get better, but then worsen — this is due to the currency devaluation of the U.S. dollar. It is the reverse of what happened in the spring — the dollar got stronger against the euro, flooding the U.S. bond market with capital and bringing rates lower.
Jim Sahnger Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Rates could potentially go higher, as mortgage-backed securities are trading at their highest levels and are ripe for a pullback. This could change if the jobs data on Friday are worse than expected.
Now is not a time to gamble with the best rates we have seen.
Chris Sipe Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Mortgage rates are reminding me of “The Godfather” — no matter how much they want to go higher, they keep getting pulled back down. The market is all over the place and settling at new lows yet again, despite the fact that the stock market is hitting yearly highs as well. This can’t continue, and I see rates moving modestly higher in the coming weeks.
Tommy Xintaris Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
Inflation is moving lower and the Federal Reserve is prepared for another round of quantitative easing. While this usually drives mortgage rates lower, there is a possibility that a sell-off could occur, causing rates to increase. If I were closing on a home in 30 days or less, I would definitely lock in a rate sooner rather than later.
The Federal Reserve signals a commitment to more quantitative easing, so rates will head lower. Any disappointment in the jobs report or corporate earnings will only accelerate the move.
Holden Lewis Senior reporter, Bankrate.com
QE2 is sailing into port. QE2 is the smarty-pants term for the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing, which probably will begin next month. Lower rates could result.
Michael Becker Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
The nonfarm payroll employment report comes out this Friday. It is expected to show either anemic or no growth in employment in September. This is further evidence the recovery is faltering. Because of this, mortgage rates will decline slightly in the coming week.
Last Friday, Federal Open Market Committee Vice Chairman William Dudley made comments regarding the Federal Reserve’s commitment to adhere to the dual mandate of promoting price stability and maximizing sustainable employment. In light of that, I fully expect we will see additional government stimulus in the form of quantitative easing, causing mortgage rates to decline.
Dan Green Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
With talk of Fed-led stimulus, traders move into mortgage bonds. Mortgage rates will go down.
Kevin Breeland General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
While we saw a week of mortgage-backed securities going up and down, there was very little change in rates — in some cases, no change. My opinion regarding the country’s employment situation and recovery has not changed. I also expect more foreclosures, and housing issues to remain for some time. Long term, it appears rates are going to remain low. For these reasons and more, I think rates will remain unchanged this week.
Derek Egeberg Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
We seem to have reached the floor for rates, and most borrowers would be advised to complete their purchases or refinances prior to rates rebounding higher.
David Kuiper Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Mortgage rates continue to trade in a very narrow range, but are up against a stiff level of resistance, which is proving to be very difficult to break beneath. With mixed economic news being released and rumblings of further Federal Reserve activity, the market has become increasingly volatile. I’m advising my clients to lock in and take advantage of these historically low interest rates while they can. See your local mortgage professional today to see how you can take advantage of them, too.
Dick Lepre Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
It appears as if we will continue to scrape a bottom for mortgage rates for some while. The longer term is bleak. I can imagine no scenario in which decades of fiscally unsustainable policies will not lead to a significant fiscal crisis which will result in much higher mortgage rates for years.
Housing is still overpriced compared to other things. The short-term prognosis for mortgage rates is “peachy” and the long term (one year and beyond) is disaster. You will know that we are in trouble when you have to pay your mortgage in ounces of gold rather than dollars. Fortunately, we are not yet there.