Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Down 17%Panel Prediction
| Up | Down | Unchanged |
| 33% | 17% | 50% |
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
For the coming week, (Sept. 9-15), 50 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points); 33 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise; and 17 percent think rates will fall.
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Greg McBride
CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The August jobs report lifted spirits — and mortgage rates — only slightly. The recovery remains a very tepid one.
Dan Green
Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
Better-than-expected news on the economy pulls mortgage rates higher.
Tommy Xintaris
Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
Unpredictable volatility causes more concerns in the short term.
Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Barry Habib
CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
Rates should improve a bit after the recent move higher, but expect high volatility.
Mitch Ohlbaum
Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury traded at 2.66 percent around midday Wednesday and the inflation component was down to 1.65 percent. At this point, there is more threat and concern of deflation than inflation. While the “experts” love to talk about inflation, it is just not going to happen right now and nor is it a concern of the Federal Reserve.
Money flowing out of the volatile stock market and the high demand for bonds will drive rates down slightly as well. The two-year Treasury was at an all-time low in the last week. Jobs? We all know what is going on! If the fear continues, the doom will become self-fulfilling. Take advantage and lock rates this week and next!
Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Holden Lewis
Senior reporter, Bankrate.com
Rates have been bound in a fairly narrow range over the last month.
Michael Becker
Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Last week, the better-than-expected ISM manufacturing index and the nonfarm payrolls readings helped rally the stock market and sent Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. Many pundits are now claiming that the risk of a double-dip recession has abated.
I don’t believe this to be true. The new orders component of the ISM report slowed to levels last seen in the second quarter of last year, and the number of jobs created still isn’t enough to keep up with the increase in the working population. These facts, as well as ongoing sovereign debt concerns, will keep mortgage rates low.
Kevin Breeland
General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
Last week, I stated rates would fall even more. I drew that conclusion because I believe the market is looking for safe havens and mortgage-backed securities are certainly one of those safe havens. As with all predictions, you have a chance to be right or wrong — it’s 50/50 either way.
The bond market is still on a roller coaster ride, losing four out of the last five days. My experience tells me when we have these types of market conditions, rates will move upward. I don’t believe these are normal times. Therefore, I believe rates will remain unchanged for the next seven days.
Derek Egeberg
Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
After a wild ride in the market for both stocks and bonds this past week, we seem to have ended up right back where we started.
David Kuiper
Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Bonds continue to be a safe investment in light of economic and political unrest, allowing for mortgage interest rates to be at or near all-time low levels. Rates continue to trade in a very tight range, bouncing around in a 0.25 percent range depending on the day — and sometimes on the hour! In this volatile market, I advise clients to lock and not to gamble. It is far better to be locked and wishing you were floating than floating and wishing you were locked. See your local mortgage professional today and learn how you can benefit from this huge gift of low rates.
Dick Lepre
Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
On Sept. 3, we saw Treasury selling and a one-day blip upward in Treasury and mortgage rates. It is almost as if (with the market thinned by the impending three-day weekend and vacations) bond brokers were able to convince suckers that the BLS employment report was positive for the economy.
We may, in fact, be in a lengthy recession that was disguised by government spending that has failed in its intended purpose of stimulating business and consumer spending. We may be about to see what gets called a “double-dip” recession, but this is not a new recession with new causes, but a continuation of what started in 2008.
As long as people still consider Treasuries a safe haven, we will see low mortgage rates. Once folks start asking “How is the U.S. going to pay this debt back?” there will be a lot of folks in the mortgage business looking for something else to do.
Jim Sahnger
Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Rates will waffle day to day, but look for things to remain relatively stable.
There is no real reward though for people floating their rate or folks who are waiting to refinance expecting rates to go significantly lower. In fact, several lenders have raised rates when compared to a few weeks ago, simply based on capacity issues.
It’s best to lock and move on as any news could prompt a selloff like we saw after the jobs report, which prompted rates to rise 0.125 percent in a hurry. While we have since recovered for the most part, why risk it?
Chris Sipe
Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Although we have seen some volatility recently, rates have continued to stay very close to their all-time lows. I see this trend — volatility and low rates — continuing, and rates remaining relatively unchanged in the near term.
