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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
For the coming week, (Aug. 5-11), 61 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points); 28 percent think rates will rise; and 11 percent think rates will fall.
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of Bankrate analysts and other mortgage experts. Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
All eyes are on the monthly employment report and private sector payrolls, specifically. Mortgage rates will remain at or near record lows with only modest increases until job growth kicks into high gear.
Dan Green Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
Mortgage markets are wound like a coil and the pressure is close to releasing. When it does, rates will spike.
Tommy Xintaris Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
Mortgage rates will follow Superman’s signature move — up, up and away.
Barry Habib CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
Lower rates off soft jobs number and possible Fed stimulus.
Mitch Ohlbaum Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury is again trading below the 3 percent mark at 2.94 percent. While Treasuries have declined, mortgage rates have not yet followed. The longer we stay down below 3 percent, the sooner we will see lower rates on mortgages. We are also seeing downward pressure as the Federal Reserve worries about deflation more than inflation. (We want inflation.) Will the Fed make a move next week? Consumer spending and confidence are both down, creating more worries about the possibility of a recovery.
It’s hard to imagine mortgage rates going any lower (famous last words), and there’s little to push them upward.
Michael Becker Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Consumer spending has softened over the last few months and consumers are continuing to deleverage, as evidenced by the increase in the personal savings rate reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in its June report on personal income and outlays. This Friday’s non-farm payroll report is expected to show continued weakness in employment. Weak consumer spending and high unemployment point to continued low mortgage rates.
Kevin Breeland General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
I have said this before but this time I mean it — given the economic news, the Federal Reserve chairman’s belief that we are five to six years away from coming out of this economic downturn, the fact that the housing sector still has weakness to it, and no real visible signs of inflation, I believe interest rates are as low as they will go.
Derek Egeberg Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
Buyers and homeowners should continue to see this as an opportunity to lower their debt load and even move into a home for less than rent for a comparable property.
David Kuiper Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
A tepid stock market, lackluster earnings data, falling consumer confidence, a struggling housing market and stubborn unemployment figures will keep rates trading in the very low range they are in today. While they may seesaw back and forth within a 0.125 percent range, they will remain at or near all-time low levels. Contact your local mortgage expert today to see what buying, building or refinancing will mean to your overall financial health.
Jeff Lazerson President, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it best the other day — underwriting standards are too constrained. The Federal Housing Finance Agency needs to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to loosen the underwriting noose a little bit. Mortgage originators are mentally waterboarding our borrowers for no good reason.
Dick Lepre Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
I had been throwing the technical call for a slight uptick in rates into the mix but the techs keep failing in the short term. The big news continues to come from the not-so-well-known Consumer Metrics Institute, which is forecasting a double-dip and lengthy recession. This one may not be as deep as the previous but may well last longer.
Jim Sahnger Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Friday’s employment report will dictate to what degree rates will change, if at all. I don’t expect the number to be too far from expectations and based on other economic news, rates should remain relatively stable. But risk is building for rates to move higher.
If you can benefit from refinancing, don’t risk waiting to see if rates will go lower. No one will ever regret getting a rate at present levels.
Chris Sipe Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Rates have remained low and stable for the past couple weeks and I see nothing in the near future to change.