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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
This week (July 8-14), 56 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points); 33 percent think rates will rise over the next week or so; and 11 percent believe rates will fall.
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts. Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
Michael Becker Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Despite continued economic weakness, I’m not sure mortgage rates can drop much further. I think we are fast approaching the floor in mortgage rates. Given how low the rates have become, I think it’s a safe bet that mortgage rates rise a little bit in the coming week.
I view this very simply from an investor standpoint … which would say investing in mortgage-backed securities versus other alternative debt instruments (even riskier assets like high-yield corporate debt) is not there. If strength for MBS pulls back, I expect it to be quick, resulting in shocks to current rates and driving them higher. The only thing supporting current levels is lack of other viable alternatives, not the idea that MBS imply any value for investors.
Dick Lepre Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The Treasury technicals are showing the daily tech about to turn bearish (lower prices, higher yields and mortgage rates) and this cycle will likely also cause the weekly tech to turn bearish. This implies we will see higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates for eight to 12 weeks. Rates will likely increase by no more than 0.25 percent from last week’s bottom. Note that in the longer term, the monthly tech is bullish, which indicates the potential of even lower yields and rates later this year.
Fear continues as the driving force, keeping mortgage rates at record lows.
Kevin Breeland General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
I believe the flight to quality is starting to slow down and the European stress tests are proving to provide a better outlook on the European front. Therefore, I expect rates to remain unchanged for one more week.
Derek Egeberg Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
The summer purchase season is under way in full swing. Refinance applications are up in numbers. See this as the glass is half full and take advantage of rates where they are. The increased demand moving forward may pressure rates to jump as they did last summer. Realize this is an amazing time for rates.
David Kuiper Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
I know I’m starting to sound like a stuck record (remember those?!), and maybe have erred on the side of caution, as interest rates have actually improved slightly. A struggling economy and economic challenges in Europe are allowing the wonderful gift of all-time low mortgage rates. If you have a rate over 5.5 percent on your current loan, talk with a mortgage professional. Getting a lower monthly payment is the typical reason to refinance, but you can achieve long-term savings by shortening the loan term for little if any change to your monthly payment. It is also an incredible time to finance a purchase or new construction. Seize the day!
Jeff Lazerson President, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Banks will not lower rates anymore, regardless of the bond market. The closer rates are to zero, the less profit margin banksters make. Banksters are always focused on profiting at the consumer’s expense. They don’t want to be giving out money for 30 years at 4 percent today when they know they can loan out at 5 percent or 6 percent a year from now.
Mitch Ohlbaum Loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.93 percent and seems to be holding below the key level of 3 percent. If we stay below that key level, we should see an even further decline in rates. That does have to be balanced against the increasing spreads the banks are collecting to increase earnings and make up for other losses. The inflation component is also down. The lackluster jobs reports will continue to weigh on rates as well. Short story: Not much news to increase rates anytime soon.
Chris Sipe Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Rates have seemed to establish fairly reliable levels of support and resistance, which means rates should remain stable and unchanged in the near term. This is good news for those house hunters who have yet to find the perfect home. However, for anyone looking to refinance, there is little reason to expect rates to go lower. Risk still outweighs reward at these levels.