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Panel prediction
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Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.

Rates will fall, but don’t count on them staying there. This week, Oct. 16 – Oct. 22, a little more than half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will fall over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-quarter think rates will rise, and a fifth believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Experts’ comments Panel
So far the implementation of the $700 billion bailout plans has been extremely helpful to the stock market. In recent days, the Dow has had some of the highest single day gains in decades. As should be expected, this has proven to be very bad news for the bond market and rates have increased significantly recently. Stay tuned as things change by the minute!
Ryan Kennelly, mortgage banker, Residential Mortgage Services Inc., Bedford, N.H.
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I see rates moving lower as most technical signs point in that direction. However, there are so many unprecedented factors at play that many moves defy technical factors and volatility is highly prevalent. Don’t be greedy waiting for the lowest rate. Capitalize on the dips and lock in when you can.
Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md.
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The only explanation for the recent run-up in interest rates is the demand vacuum created by the government intervention. With the government controlling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, I can’t imagine policymakers allowing rates to climb out of control. Expect intervention in the future, but if you’re closing your loan in the next few weeks, play it safe.
Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla.
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At this point … Who knows?! D.C. bailed out Wall Street … right? All bets are off. Party’s over and no one knows when this hangover will leave! Bias: Are you kidding?! LOCK!
Sean Rafferty, author of BayAreaMortgageReport.com, San Jose, Calif.
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The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.99 percent and falling. Although rates have been on the rise for the last 10 days we will see Treasury yields and rates decline as the weak economy takes center stage over the bailout and fears of nonexistent inflation fade away. In, fact the inflation component of rates is currently under 1 percent. The next opportunity to lock in low rates will be here in the next two weeks.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles
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Mortgage rates are a function of defined elements skewed by future interpretation of those elements. From a technical perspective and looking out 30 to 45 days, rates will cap out and turn the corner to flatten, then decline slightly after their 120 basis point rise (FNMA Current Coupon, prior 30 days). This is not equity-driven. Said another way, this is not a flight to quality move, i.e., yields are not falling on Treasuries. In fact, they have also jumped 65 basis points in the same time frame. Well-capitalized banks will improve rates and the ability of borrowers to qualify for mortgages. Both aspects are important, not just rates or their direction.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
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Thirty to 45 days is a long time out to predict anything in this market. We anticipate the feds to cut rates again on the 29th, which typically will have a negative impact on mortgage rates. We will see some up and down activity in between leaving rates unchanged.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
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Mortgage-backed securities are trading down and have fallen beneath a key floor of support. The Fed rate cut last week and a slight increase to core PPI do not translate favorably to mortgage interest rates. We’ve already seen rates increase about 0.5 percent over the past few days, but there is room for further price erosion.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
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Rates will be volatile, but the medium-term trend is unchanged.
Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
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The techs are calling for lower Treasury yields short-term (over the next few weeks) but longer Treasury yields over the next year. The techs have been overrun with the massive movements in equities and angst about the banking system. It appears that the worst is behind us, so there is a greater chance that the techs may give some indications in the near future.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco
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There is no other alternative to save this country from a complete collapse of property values. The U.S. government is going to make the lenders drop their rates if they want more of the bank bailout money.
Jeff Lazerson, president, mortgage grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
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Based on economic numbers we should be going lower. Viewing mortgage-backed securities from a technical trading perspective indicates rates could go lower. However, with all the stimulus being thrown at the markets from (Washington, D.C.), it’s hard to see rates going lower but instead edging slightly higher.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
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Bankrate’s analysts Panel
After skyrocketing this week, mortgage rates will pull back on lower inflation and any signs of improvement in the credit markets.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
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When rates rise this quickly, they are bound to take back some of the gains.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.