Mortgage Rate Trend Index March 5

Panel prediction

31%		Up
31%		Down
38%		Unchanged

This week (March 5 – March 11) the experts say: Rates probably will stay about the same.

This week, a plurality of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Equal numbers of voters (31 percent each) predicted rates will rise and rates will fall.

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Industry experts and Bankrate commentary

Experts’ comments	Panel
Consumers are running away from their stock losses and into the safety of cash. All of this liquidity will help banks to lend more money at lower rates. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.	down
I see rates moving lower as most technical signs point in that direction. However, there are so many unprecedented factors at play that many moves defy technical factors and volatility is highly prevalent. Don’t be greedy waiting for the lowest rate. Capitalize on the dips and lock in when you can. Chris Sipe, senior mortgage consultant, Mason Dixon Funding, Frederick, Md.	down
Lock ’em if you got ’em! Rates are low, and I don’t see any reason why they would go lower in the face of all that they are trying to digest (much of which is complete uncertainty). The risk of rates going up far outweighs the rewards of rates going down. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.	up
I believe that rates will remain consistent, although there is risk for them to move higher. Economically, things are and will remain difficult, which normally pushes rates down. However, the continued supply of paper from Washington should become increasingly difficult to swallow. The Fed will look to offset some of the pressure to keep rates range bound. Bottom line: Lock now and don’t worry about it. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.	unchanged
Interest rates continue to trade in a very narrow range and face a stiff ceiling of resistance. If Friday’s unemployment numbers come out with more bad news, we could see a bit of a rally in mortgage-backed securities with a slight improvement to interest rates. The big wild card right now is how lenders will implement the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.	unchanged
The U.S. is established as the best of the world’s worst economies. As the U.S. dollar gains, mortgage rates fall. Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati	down
This week the Fed is concentrating on TALF which is apparently leaving less room to create money to buy FNMA debt. I have been theorizing for weeks that mortgage rates will go where the Fed drives them but the Fed has more on its plate that mortgage debt. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco	unchanged
Although the 10-year is at 3 percent this morning, which is up 34 basis points from 2 weeks ago, we should see some relief in rates soon. The inflation component has been decreasing for the last few weeks while the real rate has increased. The housing stimulus information started coming out today and that should spur some refinancing. We are still waiting for the Fed to dip into the mortgage security market as buyer to keep rates from rising any further. Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles	down
Bankrate’s analysts	Panel
Mortgage rates will reflect the concern about sizable government borrowing. Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com	up
The feds want to put mortgage rates in a straitjacket. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com	unchanged

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index


Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.