Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 19 - 25, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to rise this week, as the war in Iran rages on, pushing oil prices over $100 a barrel. Upward inflationary pressures will continue to push rates higher. At the moment, there is no end in sight.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

It’s hard to see how rates stabilize or go lower with oil prices still rising. The path of least resistance is higher mortgage rates.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Over the past 10 business days, a dual surge in benchmark yields and risk premiums has eliminated nearly all room for downward movement in mortgage pricing. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes — the primary floor for mortgage rates — has climbed steadily, while the spread — the risk premium investors demand for holding mortgage-backed securities — has simultaneously increased. With both the base rate and the risk margin moving upward, borrowers should expect mortgage rates to continue increasing in the coming week.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Up. It’s a good time for businesses to pass through the remainder of their tariff costs, so inflation is not going away.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Unsurprisingly, mortgage rates ride the waves of energy prices. One day they are up and another day down. They frequently go up and down multiple times in a 24-hour period because energy news breaks around the world. As the uncertainty of energy flows declines, expect mortgage rates to fall.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect rates to hold steady. The market is in full Fed-watch mode ahead of the interest rate decision. Given the recent economic data, I don't see anything that would push rates significantly in either direction before the [Federal Reserve] speaks. Most lenders are likely adjusting pricing very conservatively, if at all, waiting for Powell's commentary. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, wait-and-see posture. Inflation has shown signs of cooling, but not enough for the Federal Reserve to confidently pivot toward aggressive rate cuts. At the same time, economic resilience, particularly in employment, gives them room to remain patient without signaling urgency.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Flat. Rates have moved up considerably in the last few weeks. Rates will take a breather.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Rates moved up last week on account of nervousness in the Middle East. Availability of oil and the price of that volatile commodity were, and still are, major concerns. The call here is for flat rates, but with a note that there is downward pressure lurking.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Prediction: Flat. Mortgage rates are holding for now — but don’t get too comfortable. The Fed hit pause again and is signaling just one rate cut this year, which is a clear message: Higher for longer is still the base case. Meanwhile, there’s chatter about a more aggressive path under future leadership, but that’s not today’s reality — and the market knows it. Add in rising geopolitical tension and sticky inflation, and you’ve got a market that wants rates lower… but doesn’t quite have permission yet. Here’s what that means in real terms: Rates should stay relatively flat this week, but any inflation surprise or global headline could push them slightly higher. Bottom line: We’re in a holding pattern — but it’s a tight one with volatility.