Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 5 - 11, 2026
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Expect mortgage rates to stay unchanged this week, say the majority of rate-watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 63% say rates will barely budge this week. Of the remaining respondents, 25% say rates will decrease, while just 13% predict rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.23% as of Feb. 4, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Explore mortgage ratesRate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Feb. 5 - 11, 2026
| Go up | 13% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 63% |
| Go down | 25% |
The market is digesting recent inflation and labor market data, and that process continues to place upward pressure on long-term rates, even in a relatively quiet news environment. While some day-to-day volatility is likely, a meaningful decline in mortgage rates over the coming week is improbable in my estimation.Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN
13% say rates will go up
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
Long-term mortgage rates typically correlate with a spread to account for risk and the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. When both are going in the same direction, mortgage rates are most likely to follow. In the last ten days, the spread is up four basis points, and the yield on the T-note is up two basis points. Trends usually hold, and with both increasing over the last ten days, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to increase next week.
25% say rates will go down
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate
I’d look for mortgage rates to head down slightly over the next week.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Down. Not sure why the long end can sustain current levels.
63% say unchanged–
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will be stable this week. The weaker-than-expected ADP [Employment Report] failed to move the needle on bond yields, and rates will remain rangebound until there is more data that [gets] bonds to move. The delayed [Bureau of Labor Statistics] jobs report next week could do the trick if it is also weaker than expected.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I expect rates to remain flat this week. We are still in that holding pattern. The recent jobs report was strong enough to keep the Fed cautious about moving too quickly on cuts, but inflation data isn't showing any concerning reacceleration that would warrant a hike. The market seems content to wait for more concrete evidence that the cooling trend is firmly established before making any significant moves.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Because of the partial government shutdown, [the Bureau of Labor Statistics] has said that they will not be publishing the BLS Employment Situation Report on 2/6. This should keep rates flat.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go nowhere …. Contrary to the wild painting in gold and other commodities, mortgages and Treasuries keep drawing inside the lines.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Over the next week, I expect mortgage rates to remain mostly unchanged with a possible slight upward tilt, tied primarily to movements in Treasury yields rather than any new policy developments. The market is digesting recent inflation and labor market data, and that process continues to place upward pressure on long-term rates, even in a relatively quiet news environment. While some day-to-day volatility is likely, a meaningful decline in mortgage rates over the coming week is improbable in my estimation.