Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Feb. 26 - March 4, 2026

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

[Rates are headed] down. Inflation is cooling.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to slowly move downward this week. Don’t expect any real moves in rates until next week's reports on job creation are released.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

I’d look for a slight decline in mortgage rates, building upon recent momentum.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Both the risk premium for holding 30-year mortgages and the yield on 10-year Treasuries are down, making this call a no-brainer. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will be lower.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Lower. Thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgages have moved to 6.0%. They likely have another 0.125% downside in the near future.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Mortgage rates may ease modestly this week. Recent economic data has shown signs of cooling inflation and softer consumer momentum, which typically gives bond markets room to breathe. If Treasury yields continue to stabilize, we could see lenders improve pricing slightly. That said, volatility remains the name of the game. Any surprise inflation data or strong labor reports could quickly reverse course. For now, I expect a small downward drift — not a dramatic drop, but a welcome improvement for buyers watching affordability closely.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Rates have been very sticky, as technical trading has been stuck on various levels of support and resistance. Something unexpected is going to have to occur before we break out of this range.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I view the [Federal Reserve]’s margin for error as very narrow. Inflation has moderated but remains elevated in key areas, such as services and housing, while economic activity and labor markets have not softened enough to warrant accommodation. At the same time, financial conditions have eased more than policymakers would prefer. Given this backdrop, I don’t see a compelling case for a rate move in either direction. A cut would risk undermining the Fed’s inflation credibility, while a hike could overtighten policy amid ongoing lag effects …. Barring a material change in the data, rates should remain range-bound with only modest volatility, driven by guidance rather than action.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Rates dropped slightly last week, but that drop wasn’t based on any new developments in the news — economic or policy changes included. My guess is that market participants are working to get below a 6% rate, which could be important psychologically for consumers. Following the recent State of the Union address, Washington, D.C., seems to be ‘politics as usual,’ and I didn’t hear anything that leads me to believe that we’ll see a big move in mortgage rates in the coming week.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect the rally to hold through next week. No material change in rates.