Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 7 - 13, 2026
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As we move further into 2026, the majority of rate-watchers polled by Bankrate expect rates to stay rangebound, according to this week's survey.
Of those polled, 60% say rates will hold steady or decline modestly. Thirty percent predict rates will fall more meaningfully, and just 10% say rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.24% as of Jan. 7, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Jan. 7 - 13, 2026
| Go up | 10% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 60% |
| Go down | 30% |
I’d look for mortgage rates to be little changed this week. It is a news-packed week, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury has edged up of late. I’d look for little movement unless there’s a shocker of a jobs report, which seems unlikely.Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate
10% say rates will go up
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
The good news is the spread between 30-year mortgage financing and 10-year Treasury yields is declining and returning to its historical average between 1.5% and 2.0% above the yield on these treasuries. Recently, this spread has been as high as 3.0%. The bad news is the [10-year Treasury yield] is once again climbing. A declining spread often reflects an improving economy. Unfortunately, the increasing cost of federal borrowing often reflects debt service issues. Which of these two will win out is hard to tell. However, federal debt is increasing at an unprecedented rate, limiting access to credit markets. Thus, it seems most likely that long-term mortgage rates should rise slightly next week.
30% say rates will go down
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
Our expectation is for rates to decline modestly in the week ahead as traders continue to react to the global macroeconomic picture.
Denise McManus
Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
I am predicting we see a slight rate decrease [this week]. The stock market is loving the U.S. capture of [Nicolás Maduro]. We are seeing the bond market rally as well. All of this, combined with the psychological impact of the third rate decrease from the Fed at the end of 2025, is helping with [the] momentum of lower rates.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Down: Economy is okay but not great.
60% say unchanged–
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are stable with a bias to the downside as we begin the new year. Data on job creation could move rates either way depending on Friday’s report. Geopolitical issues have not yet influenced the markets, as oil supplies and prices remain below $60 a barrel.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
The market will remain near these levels with no news coming out that would push investors into safe/secure bonds.
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate
I’d look for mortgage rates to be little changed this week. It is a news-packed week, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury has edged up of late. I’d look for little movement unless there’s a shocker of a jobs report, which seems unlikely.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think interest rates will hold steady to slightly lower this week. The market is still balancing mixed economic signals [and] progress on inflation has been steady but not decisive, while the labor market continues to show resilience. That combination usually leads to a period of rate stability rather than sharp movement. At the same time, bond yields have been relatively calm and, in some cases, drifting lower, which supports modest easing on the mortgage side. Lenders are being cautious, adjusting pricing incrementally as they wait for clearer direction from upcoming economic data and Fed guidance.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Look for flat rates, but be wary of the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] Employment Situation Report on Friday, Jan. 9. It is the one bit of data which can seriously move markets.
Nicole Rueth
Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO
Rates are holding steady with only mild movement expected, unless Friday’s jobs report throws a curveball. ADP came in just under forecast and [the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey] showed fewer openings, but [the Institute for Supply Management] services surprised to the upside, especially in new orders and employment. That balance is keeping bonds in check and mortgage pricing flat. Unless we see something dramatic in [the Non-Farm Payroll report], I expect rates to stay within a tight 0.125% range.