Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Dec. 25, 2025 - Jan. 1, 2026

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

As good economic news is released — such as the 4.3% gross domestic product numbers prior to the government shutdown — money will flow back into the stock market and away from bonds. Watch for rates to increase over this entire holiday season as investors still see opportunities and gains in the stock market and less of a need to shelter money in bonds, aka mortgages.

Robert Brusca

Chief Economist, Facts and Opinions Economics , New York , NY

Lower … lower … let’s LIMBO!!

Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage Banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA

The 10-year Treasury and mortgages have traded in a narrow range in the past three months. The GDP showed much stronger numbers than predicted and came in at 4.3%, led by consumer spending. The numbers say inflation is down, but I don't think most people are experiencing cheaper goods and services. The combination of these numbers will surely make the job of the Fed more challenging.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

No major changes in rates expected until the economic data resumes in 2026. Happy holidays to all!

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

In the short run, mortgage rates will remain rangebound, slightly [above] 6.25% for 30-year financing. In the long run, lowering the federal funds rate may have a countering effect to mortgage rates that is rarely seen. Typically, a lower interbank loan rate leads to lower long-term mortgage rates. However, we are not in a typical debt environment, where the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP is far lower than it is today. In this new environment, with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, a lower federal funds rate should boost equity prices, attracting investors and their capital away from the debt markets, due to the perception of increasing risk in these markets and better risk-adjusted returns in equities. All else equal, lower demand for debt should drive debt prices down, producing higher yields. Higher 10-year Treasury yields should then lead to upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates. The long-term picture is not very rosy for an improving mortgage rate environment.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

Regardless of data, interest rates remain stubbornly rangebound. Employment data, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been horrible, with recent Q2 2024 to Q2 2025 [job-creation data] being revised down 1.5 million jobs. Modeling at the BLS simply can't be trusted in first reports, which makes acting upon it difficult at best for economists, traders and the Fed. Inflation data has shown signs of cooling. Recent GDP data has shown signs of growth. With both this and next week being shortened by the holidays, trading volume will likely be lighter than normal, and I don't expect much movement in rates. Happy holidays and happy new year to everyone!

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

The Fed wants lower rates, risking higher-than-wanted inflation in order to keep growth at the desired level. This is about jobs.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

I look for little movement in yields, and hence mortgage rates, in the near term. Trading will be thin in the U.S. — which could boost volatility, but with little conviction — and [there will be] little meaningful economic data. Once we get into the early part of the new year, I’d expect some slight upward bias for yields and long-term rates. If there’s a significant geopolitical event, then the predictions go out the window.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

While some modest easing is possible, especially as we move toward year-end and into early January, I don’t see any sharp drops happening yet. The Fed is still focused on inflation, and while progress has been made, it hasn’t cooled enough to justify aggressive cuts. What we’re seeing instead is a market that’s cautiously optimistic. Treasury yields have been relatively steady, and lenders are adjusting pricing carefully based on expectations rather than decisive policy changes. Until there’s a clear signal, such as a sustained decline in inflation or a meaningful economic slowdown, rates are likely to hover in a narrow range.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go sideways. Here’s a parody of “Rock Bottom,” the 1974 classic by UFO: “Rock bottom, oil bottoms, rock bottom. With oil darkness closing in, will it reveal [the] bulls’ soul?” Watch for heavy crude oil to find a bottom near $50 and stay below $60. The new trend to higher rates has no momentum. Low oil [and] gasoline prices support lower rates. High sovereign debt ratios support higher rates.