Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Dec. 18 - 24, 2025
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With Christmas approaching, experts expect rates to hold steady this week, according to Bankrate's weekly survey of rate-watchers.
Of those polled, 50% say rates will barely budge this week. The remaining respondents mostly expect rates to decrease.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.30% as of Dec. 17, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders.
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Explore mortgage ratesRate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Dec. 18 - 24, 2025
| Go up | 8% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 50% |
| Go down | 42% |
Despite the recent drop in the federal funds rate, there are few economic forces afoot to help bring down the yield on the 10-year, making a near-term decline in mortgage rates unlikely.Ken Johnson, Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
8% say rates will go up
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
We expect rates to drift a bit higher in the week ahead as market participants evaluate the most recent slate of economic data.
42% say rates will go down
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, America One Luxury Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending
Hoping for an aggressive rate rally based on unemployment numbers, but we still have to get through a few other key reports this week. My prediction is we will see rates drop a bit in the week to come.
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate
Economic data is going to be volatile and lumpy in the near term. It will be January before we get a sense of the impacts of the shutdown and what the new/recent normal is. The 10-year yield has edged up toward the top end of the recent range, so barring a real surprise, I’d look for mortgage rates to ease slightly over the coming days.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think rates will fluctuate, but trend slightly downward, this week. The market is in a bit of a holding pattern, with investors weighing mixed economic signals: cooling inflation on one hand and continued resilience in the labor market on the other. That push and pull usually leads to short-term volatility rather than a sharp move in either direction. That said, bond yields have shown some softness, and demand for mortgage-backed securities remains solid, which tends to support modest improvements in mortgage rates. I don’t expect a dramatic drop, but I do see rates easing a bit as the market leans toward the expectation of future cuts.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
I anticipate that mortgage rates will move slightly lower this week as the mortgage industry closes out the calendar year ahead of the Christmas holiday.
50% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
The unemployment rate ticked up, and that should keep rates flat in the coming week.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
All eyes are on Thursday’s Consumer Price Index data. Expect little change in rates if those are in line with consensus estimates.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
In the last 30 months, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been below 4% only a handful of times. On Nov. 26, the 10-year ended business with a closing yield of 3.99%. This provided hope and argument for soon-to-be falling mortgage rates. Tuesday, the 10-year’s closing yield was 4.15%, returning to its recent anchorage point between 4.0% and 4.20%. [Are] the size of the national debt, an economy that is beginning to sputter, and fears of returning inflation combining to keep rates stubbornly high? It is hard to tell, but it does seem that despite the recent drop in the federal funds rate, there are few economic forces afoot to help bring down the yield on the 10-year, making a near-term decline in mortgage rates unlikely. Next week, we should expect long-term mortgage rates to continue to hover around 6.25%.
James Sahnger
Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL
While I've seen numerous signs that should point to lower rates, we have been incredibly rangebound. The labor market is definitely challenged, and inflation is coming down. I see lower rates on the horizon, but that horizon is next year.
Nicole Rueth
Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO
Mortgage rates are holding steady this week, but Thursday's [Consumer Price Index data] could shake things up. Tuesday’s jobs report showed a slight uptick in unemployment, but not enough weakness to move rates. Most lenders are in a wait-and-see mode, holding their breath for inflation data. If CPI surprises to the upside, we could see upward pressure, but barring that, expect rates to stay flat through the end of the year.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Bonds have sustained a modest rally, and mortgage rates have moved down just a bit. As we are headed into Christmas, I expect any moves in the next two weeks to be modest, unless there is a blowout economic report.