Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for March 12 - 18, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates continue to rise. The increase in rates has been ‘fueled’ by higher oil prices, which will, in turn, ‘drive’ up the rate of inflation.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

With inflation pressures facing escalation, the risk is that rates go higher in the short term, at least.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

The market's perception of risk from holding 30-year mortgages is up. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is up as well. These two should lead to increasing mortgage rates.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Greenwood Village , CO

Mortgage rates are edging slightly higher but continue to trade in a tight range, as markets weigh current data against future inflation risks. Today’s [Consumer Price Index] report had little impact on bonds, with investors already focused on rising energy prices and the inflation pressures they may create in upcoming reports. For now, the market appears to be looking past backward-looking data and pricing rates based on where inflation could head next.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Energy concerns will continue as long as the conflict with Iran continues and the price of oil remains in [flux]. Oil has risen to $89 a barrel from a low of $56 on January 7th — or 59%. A 5% rise in oil prices can lead to a 0.1% rise in inflation, and we know the enemy to bonds and mortgage rates is inflation. The 10-year Treasury has risen over 25 basis points since dropping to 3.95% on February 27th. Following last week’s employment report and Wednesday's [relatively] tame CPI number, rates would otherwise be trending lower.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

I expect slight upward pressure in rates over the next week, or until the geopolitical landscape gets clearer.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. It’s obvious that mortgage market participants would like to see lower mortgage rates, but U.S. military action in Iran has caused much greater uncertainty in geopolitical stability, which is having a ripple effect across the economy, with higher oil prices — probably a temporary disruption — and the need for increased spending on defense and homeland security. Inflationary pressures and greater uncertainty have helped push the 10-year Treasury higher over the past few days, and I expect mortgage rates to follow.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I think rates will go slightly lower this week. We’re continuing to see economic data that points toward gradual improvement on the inflation front, while certain areas of the economy — particularly consumer spending and job growth — are beginning to show signs of moderation. That combination tends to ease some of the upward pressure on bond yields, which ultimately influences where mortgage rates move. In my view, the markets are also increasingly positioning for the possibility that the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy later this year. That expectation alone can create downward pressure on rates in the near term. I don’t anticipate a dramatic move, but absent any surprise inflation data or major economic shock, I believe rates could drift modestly lower as the market continues to adjust its outlook for monetary policy.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Down. Rates spiked at the beginning of the war with Iran. Now they are calming down, [and] they will continue to drop.