One major question continues to loom over the U.S. economy right now: How much longer will the record-long expansion last?
The 2-year, 10-year Treasury yield curve – a closely followed recession indicator – inverted Aug. 14 for the first time since the Great Recession. Manufacturing in the U.S. is in contractionary territory. Meanwhile, business investment has slowed and confidence is dimming because of geopolitical trade wars and slowing global growth.
Economists say it’s increasingly likely that those risks are going to hurt the U.S. economy. The majority (90 percent) of experts polled for Bankrate’s Third-Quarter Economic Indicator survey said that these threats are more heavily tilted toward the downside.
But how likely is it that a recession is on the horizon, at least between now and the presidential election in November 2020? You can breathe a sigh of relief: Most economists say it’s possible – but not probable, with the average forecast betting on a 41 percent chance.
But what could make or break that likelihood? Here’s what top economists are saying.