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Mortgage Rate Trend Index   This week: July 30 - Aug. 5
  Bankrate surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of  
 mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days. 

Rate Trend Index

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (July 16 - July 22) the experts say: Rates are likely to rise.

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July 16 - July 22

This week, the survey broke down neatly. Half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. One-quarter think rates will fall, and the other 25 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

  Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts
Experts' comments Panel
Regardless of the drastic daily changes in consumer confidence, the Fed still has the financial power and commitment to artificially keep mortgage rates lower as we move through the summer months.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas

The daily tech turned bearish on July 13 so we should see higher yields for 15 to 20 calendar days after then. The weekly is still bullish, so we should have another dip which will see a bottom in rates at the end of August.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

Risk-taking is back in vogue. Mortgage bonds down means mortgage rates up.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati

The onslaught of stimulus money is leading to fears of inflation and coupled with the stock market picking up a little steam, mortgage bonds are trading lower (leading to increased rates). We've seen about .250 percent increase in rates in recent days, with room for more to come. Remember ... any hint of inflation is the enemy of bonds, and we've seen some of this in recent days. Overall, rates remain at historically attractive levels.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.

Right now stocks look oversold, and I think bank earnings could surprise to upside. These factors will cause the stock market to rise and bond prices to drop. This means that bond yields and mortgage rates will rise, although I don't expect the huge spike in rates that we saw in early June. Looking further out, I suspect that stock market optimism will be tempered by the reality of slow economic growth. This should keep rates from rising too much and may provide an occasional dip in mortgage rates.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.

My natural inclination is to state "higher" based on reasons I have mentioned previously, increased debt load from Washington. However, as we have seen previously, the Federal Reserve and their ability to buy mortgage-backed securities has had a leash on interest rates, preventing them from getting too far away from previous normal levels. Do not look for rates to decline but volatility day to day can hurt you, so as I have said before, lock when rates work for you. Day-to-day rate swings can hurt you.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

Bankrate's analysts Panel
Mortgage rates are rebounding on quarterly earnings that aren't as bad as feared. Expect the yo-yo action on mortgage rates to persist as the economic sentiment waxes and wanes.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com

The economy is fairing more poorly than realized. When markets wake up to reality, rates will drop.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com


About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

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