Expert Poll: Mortgage Rate Trend Predictions For Sept. 24-30, 2020

Rate trend index

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In the week ahead (Sept. 24-30), 9 percent of the experts on Bankrate's panel predict rates will rise, while 91 percent expect rates to hold steady and none think rates will fall. Calculate your monthly payment using Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

The market resembles that carnival attraction where several motorcycles are wildly spinning around in a cage but going nowhere. When markets behave like this, it implies that people are clueless as to what is happening. COVID has created a very wide cone of economic uncertainty.

— Dick Lepre, RPM Mortgage

9% say rates will go up

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Les Parker

CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions, Jacksonville, Florida

Here's a parody based on Eminem’s 2002 hit "Lose Yourself": "You better lose yourself in the margin, the volume; You own it. When will it ever let you go?" Technical charts in the major U.S. stock market indexes point down. Does the loss of the froth in the stock market portend froth losses in mortgage companies' margins and volumes? Oops, will customers with no rate lock sit and wait?

0% say rates will go down

None of our experts predicted rates will drop.

91% say unchanged

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Greg McBride

CFA, chief financial analyst,

Expect rates to hold steady absent any obvious catalysts for change. Borrowers will increasingly see refinance quotes marked up by one-eighth of a point to account for the new Federal Housing Finance Agency fee.

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Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, Inc., Alamo, CA

The techs are mixed. Fundamentals are not pointing in any one direction, and Treasurys are trading a bit insanely with large intraday moves but little movement at the end of the day. The market resembles that carnival attraction where several motorcycles are wildly spinning around in a cage but going nowhere. When markets behave like this, it implies that people are clueless as to what is happening. COVID has created a very wide cone of economic uncertainty.

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Logan Mohtashami

Housing analyst, HousingWire, Irvine, California

The bond market isn't moving much these days, while the housing data has been excellent this week, even with stocks being more volatile lately, bonds are steady. As always, keep an eye out on any headlines of disaster relief as some believe the the the Supreme court judge appointment process has killed off any desire to get a deal done now. So, the markets might see that headline of something getting done as a surprise this next week. Outside of that, it's been a calm bond market.

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Ken H. Johnson

Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University

Rates will remain unchanged. Thirty-year mortgage rates have been below 3 percent since the end of July and will remain so this week thanks to unprecedented ongoing open market operations by the Fed.

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Jennifer Kouchis

Senior vice president, real estate lending, VyStar Credit Union, Jacksonville, Florida

There is a slight tug of war happening with moves both up and down with regards to rates, but nothing too earth-shattering. For the most part, rates should remain static, although some negative movement is expected with early reaction ahead of the loan-level pricing adjustment coming in December.

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Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Mortgage rates will hold steady. It’s the same old drumbeat of way too many mortgage applicants needing a mortgage haircut compared to way too few mortgage lenders able to handle the loan volume. Consequently, lenders are not reducing their rates. Rather, they are earning more profit by keeping their prices the same with the cheaper cost of funds.

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James Sahnger

Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation, Jupiter, Florida

Rates continue to be rangebound as investors look for reasons to either buy or sell more bonds. Lots of uncertainty lies in the weeks ahead surrounding the direction of COVID-19 with the potential for a fall surge vs. the possibility of viable vaccines coming to market. Add to that the upcoming election, the release of the employment report next week, pleas from Fed Chair Powell asking for more stimulus and not getting it and any other unknown, and the economic waters are murky at best. From a technical trading perspective, the ball is getting wound pretty tight and a breakout could be coming. We shall see but that could be lower following all the economic reports next week, culminating on Friday.

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Michael Becker

Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage, White Marsh, Maryland

Yields on Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities have been incredibly flat over the last few weeks, and outside the adverse market delivery charge from Fannie and Freddie, mortgage rates haven’t changed much. There’s not much reason to expect that to change over the coming week. Mortgage rates will be flat.

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Gordon Miller

Owner, Miller Lending Group, LLC, Cary, North Carolina

Rates will stay in the same narrow range they’ve been stuck in for awhile now as lenders continue to work through major backlogs. Again, the focus needs to be on closing costs as it’s getting harder to compare apples to apples.

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Jeff Ostrowski

Senior mortgage writer,

Some of the economic indicators look promising, others look scary. Absent a clear picture, rates will stay in a holding pattern.