Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for November 12 - 18, 2026

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

The [Federal Reserve] just swapped its scalpel for a sledgehammer. Hours before October’s inflation report came out Tuesday, Governor Christopher Waller stood up in London and said a half-point hike should be on the table in December if core [Consumer Price Index] came in at 0.3% or higher. It came in at exactly 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury jumped right back to the 5% line, and mortgage rates gave back all of last week’s relief in one morning. I expect the 30-year fixed to climb back above 7.25% this week. Wall Street still bets on a quarter-point hike, not a half. But lenders don’t wait for the Fed to act. They price in the fear first.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are ticking up again, as recent reports on inflation show no moderation. We have enjoyed several weeks of lower rates, as oil prices have dropped recently, but have now given back some of those gains with the hotter-than-expected CPI report. If the [Producer Price Index] report later this week is hot as well, we are likely to see rates continue to rise.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Englewood , CO

The dip in mortgage rates that began in mid-October may be behind us, with rates back up to 7.3% after October’s CPI came in at 0.4% and core held at 0.3% for a third straight month, sending the 10-year Treasury up about 13 basis points to nearly 5%. Fed Governor Waller told CNBC that a 0.3% core reading could justify a half-point hike in December, and with core landing right at that level, the odds of a December hike jumped to roughly 85%. Tech jitters have helped bonds lately, yet that rally has limits when inflation keeps surprising to the upside, so unless inflation cools or Iran delivers a verified resolution, rates have more room to climb than to fall from here.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

The Middle East is heating up again, and inflation numbers were bad this week.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Lower. Following the midterm elections, I expect rates to fall, as expectations of continued conflict in Iran look less likely. Increased stability in oil prices and potentially reduced inflation should drive overall rates lower in the short term.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I expect mortgage rates to hold roughly flat to slightly higher in the coming days. The 30-year fixed is around 7.17% today, per Bankrate, and Freddie Mac's weekly survey has it at 7.18%, down for a third straight week. That is about 10 basis points higher than where I had it last week, and the move came after Tuesday's hotter-than-expected CPI pushed the 10-year Treasury back up to 4.98%. With the bond market closed today for Veterans Day, I don't expect much movement until the data picks back up. The wild card is Friday's PPI report, along with Thursday's jobless claims and existing home sales [reports]. Another hot inflation print would keep upward pressure on yields, while a soft one could let rates ease back toward the lower end of the range. My base case is that the 30-year stays in the low to mid 7s, roughly 7.15% to 7.25%.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Following last week's election, we will see a number of new Mr. and Ms. Smiths going to Washington. Time will tell as to what will be proposed and put into effect and how new legislation will play on the bond markets and interest rates. In the meantime, hotter inflation data has put some upward pressure on rates following some marked recent improvements in interest rates. Finally, never underestimate the power of how an affair can have an impact that exceeds the participants. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stated he had an affair with what is potentially a spy from China and the AI markets sold off on the news. Where this goes, we shall see, but it didn't work out well for Eric Swalwell. There is a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December, and odds are increasing for a 50-basis-point hike, which I believe would help longer-term interest rates. Look for rates to remain rangebound with day-to-day volatility. Thank you to all our veterans and their service!

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

With mixed messages from the data, we should see rates stay flat in the coming days.