Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for October 1 - 7, 2026

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Metaphorically speaking, dark clouds are everywhere in the 30-year mortgage market with continued cloudiness for the immediate future. Thus, we should expect rates to rise once again next week. While not unprecedented, we are entering a strange period. Increasing U.S. debt levels, global uncertainty and growing worries over AI are all putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. This is a confluence of factors that do not bode well for U.S. mortgage markets.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Inflation, as reported by [Personal Consumption Expenditures] on Wednesday, offered a potential respite for bonds, but unfortunately, the trend is not our friend. Since mid-April, the 10-year has risen from 4.22% to as high as 5.30% midday Wednesday. The 10-year hasn't been at 5.30% since June 2007. Even though PCE and [the Consumer Price Index] [have] been lower than expected, concerns about future higher levels of inflation remain and are warranted. The buildout of Super Intelligence in the next seven years is going to exceed $10 trillion, which is over 10 times more than the cost for the U.S. railroad boom and over 16 times more than the cost to build the U.S. interstate highway system from the 1950's to 1990's.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates remain pressured on the upside in spite of a better-than-expected reading on core PCE. Rising oil prices and strong economic data continue to push the 10-year bond yield higher, and mortgage rates are along for the ride.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

The Federal Reserve remains focused on controlling inflation. Even as Personal Consumption Expenditures has registered lower than expected for August 2026, concerns about the cascading effects of surging fuel prices remain. I believe that we will see a hike in the Fed's key rate in the future, and that the market rate for the 10-year Treasury will follow. All other interest-rate-sensitive markets — including mortgage markets — should be expected to rise accordingly.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

Our expectation is that rates will edge higher in the week ahead in the absence of a catalyst that breaks the current trend line.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

Expect rates to be lower by [the] weekend given some relative spread easing this week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Well, look who blinked first. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge came in cooler than Wall Street expected. Core PCE landed at 3.0%, and that took a little heat off the October hike talk. A little. Before anyone pops champagne, remember that 3% is still a full point above the Fed's 2% target, and part of this 'cooling' comes from the government changing how it measures prices. The inflation didn't improve so much as the ruler did. So here's where we stand: The Fed has already hiked once and hasn't finished talking tough, and mortgage rates are sitting at their highest level since early 2025. Today's report takes the edge off, but it doesn't flip the script. Friday's jobs report is the real tiebreaker. If hiring runs hot, rates march right back up. If it comes in soft, we get some breathing room. My prediction: Rates stay stuck around 7%. They'll be a bit less jumpy than last week, but relief isn't coming yet.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

Despite the negative pressure in the market, I do not think that rates will fluctuate materially over the next week, provided there are no surprises in the upcoming employment data.