Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for May 7 - 13, 2026

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

My sense is that we could see a modest upward drift in mortgage rates over the next week.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Although the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields remains elevated relative to historical norms, it has been remarkably stable over the last 30 business days. This consistency suggests that investors perceive no significant shift in the inherent risk of holding mortgage-backed securities. However, the 10-year Treasury yield closed notably higher the last few days, implying a rise in the benchmark required return for all asset classes. Consequently, 30-year mortgage rates are expected to climb over the coming week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

My call for the week ahead: Slight upward bias/range-bound. Here’s why: The [Federal Reserve] is in pause mode, and May lacks a policy catalyst, so don’t expect dramatic movement. Inflation risks are tilting higher again, which limits any meaningful drop in rates. The 10-year Treasury remains the real puppet master, and if it pushes toward 4.5%, mortgage rates could flirt with 6.6% - 6.75% quickly. Expect modest volatility, but no major relief yet. Rates should hover in the mid-6% range, with a slight lean upward depending on inflation data and global headlines.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. Recent economic data has been relatively strong, which favors the Fed's "higher for longer" rate strategy. Elevated oil prices related to the U.S./Iran conflict are driving inflation expectations higher. I expect both of these factors to push mortgage rates slightly higher. However, limited housing supply, unforeseen economic data, and the expectation that the Fed will cut rates later in the year could dampen this slight rise into a flat/unchanged scenario.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Rates are headed down. The war with Iran is over (again).

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will head lower this week, as oil prices tumble. Positive negotiations with Iran to end the two-month-old war have caused oil prices to retreat, and bond yields have fallen as well. A stronger-than-expected ADP report has not stopped the rally, and hopefully the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] report on Friday will not stop the rally.

Joel Naroff

President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA

Can anyone predict what will come out of the mouths of Trump and whoever is talking for the Iranian leadership?

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I don’t see a clear catalyst for mortgage rates to make a meaningful move in either direction. The overall tone feels very much like a holding pattern, but not without some underlying pressure …. We have been in an environment where optimism around rate cuts fluctuates, yet the data hasn’t fully supported a sustained drop. Inflation is still lingering and not falling fast enough to push the Federal Reserve into aggressive easing. Consequently, the bond market has reacted with yields creeping higher, especially on the long end, and mortgage rates are following that lead. I am watching closely how sensitive the market is to new economic data. A stronger-than-expected report on jobs, inflation, or consumer spending can quickly push yields up, putting immediate pressure on mortgage pricing. Conversely, weaker data hasn’t been enough lately to create a meaningful downward trend. Additionally, general market sentiment and global uncertainty tend to keep a floor under rates, meaning small dips rarely hold for long. For this week, I am not expecting any major swings.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Interest rates have been reacting to day-to-day news like a bouncing ball, dependent on the news cycle regarding Iran and oil prices. Discussions regarding a pending deal are difficult to get excited about without knowing who in Iran really has the power to negotiate. Until something definitive appears, expect more volatility.