Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

 
Panel Prediction
Up Down Unchanged
59% 6% 35%
 

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.

This week (Feb. 3-Feb. 9), 59 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so; 6 percent think rates will fall; and 35 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.

Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBride

Greg McBride

CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Jobs report — not Egypt and not corporate earnings — will dictate the path of mortgage rates over the next week.
Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Mortgage rates are currently at the high end of the range that they have been in since the beginning of the year. If the nonfarm payroll report due this Friday shows moderate job growth, I expect that range to be broken and rates to rise. I see slightly higher rates in the coming weeks.
Kevin Breeland

Kevin Breeland

General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
Improving profits, signs of recovery from the economic downturn, rise in the stock market … All good signs, correct? Yes. Now comes the next level of concern, the kryptonite of bonds, inflation worries. With recovery comes some inflation, with inflation you will see rising interest rates. The cycle works that way. The turmoil in Egypt, while it can have an effect, seems to have the bond market just shrugging off the news. The Fed has stated inflation will remain low for some extended time. Great … but what is an extended time? Based on my experience, we have passed the time where rates move lower. I believe they will rise and will continue to rise for some time.
Derek Egeberg

Derek Egeberg

Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist and branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz.
Less-than-stellar employment numbers push markets higher. Be prepared for even higher rates near April 1 as the Federal Reserve implements its new rules.
Mark Madsen

Mark Madsen

Mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
Mortgage rates have dropped so quickly over the past few weeks, mainly due to economic concerns in Europe. However, there is a bias toward a slight increase in rates in the near future as things get sorted out on the stock markets. This would be a good week to lock.
Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
The techs are still bearish portending lower prices and higher yields. The Fed’s commitment to QE2 has been most interesting. First of all, the Fed is not increasing money supply. What it has done is take the cash that comes in to pay off the mortgage portfolio accumulated in 2009 and the monthly P&Is and put that back into Treasuries. The illusion that the Fed was increasing money supply has sent Treasury and mortgage rates up and inflated equities. Perhaps this was its intent.
Bob Moulton

Bob Moulton

President, Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, N.Y.
Rates are on the rise.
Jim Sahnger

Jim Sahnger

Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
While I believe there is some room for rates to improve, I’m feeling more cautious about rates rising short-term following this week’s ADP employment report.
John Walsh

John Walsh

President, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
I believe rates will increase in the coming week.
Tommy Xintaris

Tommy Xintaris

Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
After three consecutive days of MBS sell-offs, this week’s key day will be Friday and the monthly employment data. If it comes in with the expected news of an increase of jobs, we may see another bad day in the MBS markets and a spike in rates. Make sure to stay in sync with your loan officer until Friday to avoid any surprises.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Dan Green

Dan Green

Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
The events in Egypt spark a flight to quality. Mortgage rates fall.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Holden Lewis

Holden Lewis

Mortgage editor, Bankrate.com
Nice job, Fed. Keepin’ mortgage rates steady.
David Kuiper

David Kuiper

Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Interest rates continue to trade in a very narrow range. Intraday volatility remains high with rates moving up and down, often multiple times during the day. Remember, bonds (where mortgages are priced from) are a “safe haven” for investors and benefit from negative information. When we have high unemployment, falling stock market, political unrest (domestic and international) we’ll see interest rates improve. When we have a rising stock market, falling unemployment or economic reports that could lead to inflation, we’ll see interest rates increase. While it is impossible to time the market, it is still a great opportunity to take advantage of today’s low interest rates. Consult your local mortgage professional to see how you can benefit.
Rebecca R. Madej

Rebecca R. Madej

Mortgage consultant, Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers, Charlotte, N.C.
Mortgage bonds are trading in a tight range.
Mitch Ohlbaum

Mitch Ohlbaum

Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.47 percent and continues to trade in a narrow range. While the Fed’s efforts have arguably kept rates lower than we might have otherwise seen, they are not retreating the way the Fed would have hoped for, given its extensive efforts. Inflation seems to be at a comfortable level for the Fed and the market, but job creation and growth in wages is what we need to see to really move forward.
Jeff Tufford

Jeff Tufford

Mortgage consultant, Monarch Consulting, Grand Blanc, Mich.
Rates should hold steady as many economic indicators point toward a recovery, but the real estate sector still shows signs that a recovery is not in the immediate future.
 

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