Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 22 - 28, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates are on the rise as talk of new tariffs and Greenland push bond yields higher. We need to get back to “Buy America."

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

The week began with a spike in long-term yields. I’d be surprised to see a substantial reversal. … Rates are likely going to end the week higher than the week before.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Higher. Broad political uncertainty breeds uncertainty about where the value of various assets are going. Uncertainty translates into higher rates.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go up …. The financial markets continue to wrestle with the trade-off between growth and inflation. Growth can happen without declining inflation, but bonds are not ready to buy that narrative; they’re selling it.

Nicole Rueth

Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO

Mortgage rates jumped to 6.21% after global markets digested Davos headlines, Japan’s debt volatility and the threat of [European Union] countries selling off U.S. Treasury bonds. While the $200 billion [mortgage-backed securities] buy helped narrow spreads and temporarily anchor rates, geopolitical pressure is now pulling them higher. We’re still in a tight range, but that range is drifting up.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Higher. I expect U.S. mortgage rates to drift modestly higher over the next week, reflecting elevated Treasury yields and ongoing bond-market volatility. Although the Fed is widely expected to hold policy rates steady, uncertainty around forward guidance — along with increased geopolitical risk — will continue to place upward pressure on long-term rates. While rates may fluctuate daily, I expect slightly higher mortgage rates overall in the near term.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

My expectation is for rates to edge down modestly this week. Recent economic data continues to point toward a gradual cooling of inflation and a modest slowdown in the labor market, both of which help relieve upward pressure on rates. While the Fed hasn’t formally shifted its policy stance yet, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the expectation of easing later this year. That anticipation is already showing up in lower bond yields, which tends to translate into marginally lower mortgage rates.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

The week ahead looks a little choppy as the market tries to stay ahead of all the noise. For starters, we have the World Economic Forum, often called Davos. This is a once-a-year meeting where world leaders, central banks and major business leaders come together to discuss the global economy. No rates are set at Davos, but what is said and the message delivered can certainly sway the markets. Housing is certainly a priority. President Donald Trump is expected to discuss housing and policy priorities for the year ahead. We already know his administration has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase roughly $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. There is also reporting from Politico that an executive order is being drafted that would allow buyers to use funds from their 401(k) or 529 accounts for down payments without the usual early withdrawal penalties. That same order would restrict large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. This is expected to be announced during this meeting. Overall, I see rates trending down but with a few bumps along the way. So pick your lock wisely. Bottom line is we are in a very nice spot for mortgage rates!

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

Lower. Never let the potential for a crisis go to waste. Interest rates popped this week to levels not seen since early September and the summer of last year. Rates jumped based on increased tariff concerns as well as Japan's need to rely on bond sales to remain running. Early Wednesday, the markets calmed a bit following comments from Japan and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. I believe the recent spike is temporary and rates will decline from here.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Rates are going up and down and all around depending on what President Trump says. Bottom line is neutral.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage financing has historically ranged between 1.5% and 2.0%. The most recent reading has the spread at 1.97%. On Tuesday, the 10-year yield for U.S. Treasuries was 4.28%. This creates an implied rate of 6.25% (1.97% plus 4.28%) …. We should expect actual rates to match the implied rate.