Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 16 - 22, 2026

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

The war is back on and so is inflation.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

My prediction: Rates hold in the mid-6% range with an upward bias, not a decline. The 30-year has already ticked up to a one-month high this week. If you're waiting for oil and inflation to both cooperate before rates drop, you'll be waiting past Labor Day.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

Unfortunately, this will be an easy call. With the re-escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, the yield on 10-year Treasurys will increase, resulting in higher rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will increase.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Lower inflation — as measured by [Consumer Price Index] — provides hope for lower rates.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We’re expecting rates to edge lower in the week ahead following the updated view on the inflation outlook from both CPI and [Producer Price Index] inflation readings.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will be rangebound this week, as data showing inflation has cooled offsets higher oil prices as the war in Iran reignites.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

This week's mortgage market appears to be caught between two competing forces. My view for this week is that mortgage interest rates will remain relatively unchanged. As I look across the market, I see competing economic forces that are largely offsetting one another, making it difficult for rates to break meaningfully in either direction. On one hand, inflation has continued to improve, which is encouraging. Lower inflation generally reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve and is a positive sign for the bond market, both of which can help support lower mortgage rates over time. On the other hand, oil prices have been moving higher. Rising energy costs can work their way through the economy by increasing transportation and production expenses, potentially putting renewed upward pressure on inflation. That's something both investors and the Federal Reserve will watch closely. When I put these factors together, I don't see a clear winner this week. The progress we've made on inflation is being tempered by higher energy prices, creating a market that appears balanced rather than directional.

Nicole Rueth

Senior Vice President, CrossCountry Mortgage , Englewood , CO

Rangebound: June’s CPI came in at 3.5%, and PPI slowed to 5.5% annually, both still well above the Fed’s 2% target but moving in the right direction and clearly marking their relationship to oil. These reports give the Fed enough cover to hold rates. The catch is that both readings reflect data collected during the ceasefire, and July has already brought renewed fighting and rising oil prices that aren’t captured in these numbers yet. Rates are likely to stay rangebound until the market gets a clear and lasting answer on Iran.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Iran can't seem to get out of the way toward ending this conflict, as it continues to violate the ceasefire agreement. Oil had gone below $68 a barrel last week and is now trading at $79 a barrel, prompting inflation concerns. Posted CPI and PPI data this month was cooler than expected for June, and dovish statements from Fed Chair Warsh before Congress this week helped bring rates back in line with where we were last week. Look for rates to remain rangebound with day-to-day volatility.