Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Dec. 11 - 17, 2025

Nicole Rueth

Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO

Mortgage rates remain locked in a tight range, but we could see a slight uptick this week following today’s Fed cut. Despite three dissenters, the Fed lowered policy rates by 25 basis points and signaled just one more cut in 2026, while mortgage-backed securities run-off continues to be replaced by short-term Treasurys, pulling mortgage pricing closer to the front end of the curve. All eyes now shift to November Consumer Price Index and Bureau of Labor Statistics data for the next decisive move to rates.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

The Fed is trying its best to move rates lower, but the market is not cooperating quickly enough. Look for a slow move to lower rates.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

Rates will go down 25 basis points this week, especially with the Fed meeting [Wednesday]. The timing is important, because the recent economic data is finally giving the Fed some room to adjust. Core inflation has been easing, wage growth is slowing, and we’re seeing early signs of a cooler labor market. Those factors together create an environment where a modest rate improvement makes sense. At the same time, bond yields have been trending lower, and mortgage-backed securities are seeing stronger demand. When the market moves in that direction ahead of a Fed meeting, lenders often start pricing in expectations early. That’s why I’m anticipating a 25-basis-point drop following [Wednesday’s] meeting, enough to reflect improving conditions without signaling a full policy shift.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

The Fed comments on economic growth being modest. Job gains have slowed, and inflation remains elevated. The Fed is also now talking about buying short-term Treasurys to keep bank reserves ample, helping push rates down.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

After a choppy few weeks, I expect rates to improve slightly now that the Fed decision has been confirmed and economic data is flowing again.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

As expected, the Fed and Jerome Powell lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, leaving it between 3.50%-3.75%. The decision wasn't unanimous from the FOMC. One member wanted a 50 basis point reduction, while two wanted no cut at all. The jobs market continues to see weakness. While not at 2% or less, inflation and Personal Consumption Expenditures continue to decline. The written statement and subsequent initial remarks weren't bullish for near-future additional rate cuts, while many on Wall Street and the White House want more cuts — and the sooner the better. Time will tell … but I expect mortgage rates to slightly decline over the next week.

Michael Becker

MLO, Union Home Mortgage , Columbia , MD

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate. Leading up to this meeting, bonds had been selling off and mortgage rates had been rising on concern this would be a hawkish cut — that is, the Fed would highlight their concern over inflation more than their concern for a softening employment outlook. Given they were pretty neutral in their statement and during Powell’s press conference, I think we will see bonds rally a bit in the coming week, leading to lower mortgage rates.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We’re looking for rates to fall modestly in the week ahead, as investors continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s most recent policy decision.

Mark Hamrick

Washington Bureau Chief, Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate

With the recent significant rise in the yield of the 10-year Treasury, my sense is that some of this has been overdone. So, perhaps some sideways movement for mortgage rates in the next week.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go sideways. Here’s a parody of ‘Bird On The Wire,’ the 1969 classic by Leonard Cohen: ‘Like a bird on the wire, like Chair Jay in a midday presser. The hawks try in their way to be free.’ Mortgage rates are ready to rise, but the dormant market supports sluggish action.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates will remain stable this week as the markets digest the latest cut by the Fed. Back we go to data watching.