Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 2 - 8, 2026

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Fed Chairman Warsh has stated that inflation is too high, and markets are now pricing in a rate hike in September. Bond yields have risen and are pushing mortgage rates up as a result.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

With the perceived risk of holding mortgages up and the 10-Year Treasury yield up as well, we can expect mortgage rates to rise next week.

Denise McManus

Certified Luxury Home Agent, APEX RESIDENTIAL Real Estate/Xpert Home Lending

Basically, rates got the ‘global crisis resolved’ memo and shrugged. Here’s the real story: The Fed held steady at 3.50-3.75% again, but the June meeting notes had a hawkish edge — more committee members are now whispering ‘hike’ than ‘cut’ as inflation refuses to leave the party. Until the 10-year Treasury breaks one direction or the other, your rate isn’t going anywhere dramatic either. My honest opinion, no hedging: We’re not getting relief this summer. Thursday’s jobs report will tell us more, but the Fed has zero urgency to cut. I predict rates will go up in the week ahead.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We look for rates to decline in the week ahead as traders continue to react to news out of the Middle East and the resulting inflationary impact.

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

I don't expect a dramatic decline, but I do believe we're likely to see some modest improvement in pricing. Much of the recent economic data points to an economy that is gradually cooling, which has helped calm concerns about inflation. If that trend continues, the bond market could respond favorably, creating slight downward pressure on mortgage rates. I'm also watching investor sentiment closely. The market has become increasingly focused on when the Federal Reserve may eventually begin easing monetary policy. While I don't expect an immediate change from the Fed, even subtle shifts in economic expectations can influence mortgage-backed securities and Treasury yields, which ultimately drive mortgage rates. That said, I don't think we're entering a period of sharply lower rates. I believe any improvement this week will be measured rather than dramatic. Mortgage rates are still sensitive to inflation reports, employment data, and unexpected global events, so some day-to-day volatility is always possible. Overall, my outlook is cautiously optimistic. I believe rates will edge a bit lower this week.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. I expect U.S. mortgage rates to remain relatively stable over the next week, with the average 30-year fixed rate staying in the 6.45% to 6.65% range. The June jobs report that is scheduled to release on July 2 will likely be the biggest driver of any movement — a stronger-than-expected report could push rates slightly higher, while weaker data could allow them to ease a bit. My expectation is for only modest day-to-day fluctuations rather than any significant change in mortgage rates.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Home prices are flat, jobs growth is modest. We should see flat mortgage rates in the coming week.

Robert J. Smith

Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage

Don’t see much of a change going into the holiday weekend.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Palm Beach Gardens , FL

Before the Iran conflict, oil was trading just under $70 a barrel as it is now. Understandably, when oil prices rose, it was inflationary, and Hammack stated the same. Now, with oil prices back to where they were before the conflict, Hammack, as a voting FOMC member, stated that this is inflationary as well. The bond markets took it on the chin and reacted negatively, prompting rates to rise. In a market with a lot of uncertainty, noise from any voting member can cause ripples. That said, I think this will be temporary and rates should remain settled unless things reignite in the Middle East.