Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

 
Panel Prediction
Up Down Unchanged
80% 13% 7%
 

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.

This week (Dec. 9-15), an overwhelming majority (80 percent) of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. Just 13 percent think rates will fall, and 7 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.

Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBride

Greg McBride

CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Since the QE2 announcement in early November, mortgage rates have done nothing but move higher. What can Ben Bernanke say in next week’s FOMC announcement to reverse the course, because right now nothing is working?
Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
The announcement of an agreement on the extension of the Bush tax cuts has been a catalyst for rapidly rising mortgage rates. It seems as if the bond vigilantes do not like the additional $900 billion in debt that will occur as a result of the compromise between President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans. I think it will take an exceedingly bad economic report or another sovereign debt crisis to reverse the tide of rising rates. I really don’t see anything like that happening in the coming week, and because of this, I think mortgage rates will rise in the coming week.
Kevin Breeland

Kevin Breeland

General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
The bond market has been competing with the largest roller coaster in the world, and it is winning. It was a wild ride in mortgage-backed securities last week, and this week has started that way again. Winding the year, higher bond yields abroad will put additional pressures on the MBS market. Today, the 10-year yield is above 3 percent (and) pointing toward more unsettled movement in the bond market. For these reasons, I believe the rates will increase over the next seven days. I would not float anything; I would lock in as soon as possible.
Dan Green

Dan Green

Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
The major damage is done. This week, look for minor price hikes instead.
David Kuiper

David Kuiper

Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Mortgage-backed securities and the bond market seem to be in a free fall right now, and rates have risen suddenly and dramatically, as we knew they would. We just didn’t know when! While it appears that the record-low levels seen in recent months are a thing of the past, in the big picture, rates are still incredible and represent a great opportunity for many to still take advantage of. This may be the wake-up call we needed to shake us out of our complacency. Remember, positive news in the economy results in money flowing out of the bond market, causing interest rates to rise. Most data being released currently, while not all positive, is at least “less negative.” Consult with your local mortgage professional today to see how you can take advantage now, before pricing erodes further.
Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
With rates having shot up, the forecast at present is that they are likely to increase a bit more. We are about to see an end to the secular bullish monthly and the weekly and daily techs are bearish (lower prices, higher yields). All of the potentially bullish patterns were quashed by the announcement Dec. 7 that a political compromise was reached to extend the tax cuts. We are likely to be stuck at these levels or above until past year’s end.
Brian Peart

Brian Peart

President, Nexus Financial, Atlanta
Rates are shooting up!
Jim Sahnger

Jim Sahnger

Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Rates in the last few months have been the best ever. While they are off their lows, they are still quite a bit lower than historic averages. Get busy if you need to submit an application though, as it appears the trend in rates is not your friend.
John Walsh

John Walsh

President, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
I believe rates will increase in the coming week.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Holden Lewis

Holden Lewis

Mortgage editor, Bankrate.com
When mortgage rates move up or down in big steps, they usually overshoot. That’s why I believe this jump in mortgage rates will be followed by a small step back. This analysis lacks sophistication, but I believe it’ll prove accurate.
Tommy Xintaris

Tommy Xintaris

Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
“SELL, SELL, SELL” have been the “words of the day” here in the past week while mortgage rates have risen substantially. If you blinked at the wrong time, you most likely missed out on locking in a lower rate or at least stopping the bleeding. In the upcoming week, I see mortgage markets buying back some of the losses. However, you would be advised to lock in sooner than later in this uncertain environment.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Mitch Ohlbaum

Mitch Ohlbaum

Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
We have seen an unprecedented increase in the 10-year rates, causing mortgage rates to soar over the last couple of weeks. I think we have seen all the increases we are going to see in the very near-term, and now we have some “wait and see” about the economy.
 

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