Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

 
Panel Prediction
Up Down Unchanged
36% 14% 50%
 

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.

This week (Nov. 18-Nov. 24), half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next week or so, 36 percent think rates will rise and 14 percent believe rates will fall.

Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.

Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Holden Lewis

Holden Lewis

Mortgage editor, Bankrate.com
Mortgage rates have been rising, and they’ll continue to do so.
Bob Moulton

Bob Moulton

President, Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, N.Y.
Rates are on the rise.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
The first few days of the second round of quantitative easing haven’t gone as many people in the mortgage industry had expected. Treasury yields and mortgage rates have spiked in recent days. Perhaps this is because of rising inflation expectations. Given the recent PPI and CPI reports that show little or no inflation, I expect those inflation expectations to subside. Because of this, I see mortgage rates falling in the coming week.
Dan Green

Dan Green

Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
The PIIGS components (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) are pushing investors back to mortgage bonds. Mortgage rates ease.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBride

Greg McBride

CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
After a notable rise this week, mortgage rates will settle in, particularly with worries brewing about Irish banks.
David Kuiper

David Kuiper

Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
After the bloodbath in bonds last week, and mortgage interest rates rising, pricing seems to have stabilized in light of recent weak economic reports. The Fed’s QE2 (providing additional liquidity to the markets) provided a knee-jerk reaction in the bond market, with fears of inflation (the archenemy of bonds) facing the bond market. The recent housing starts, PPI and CPI figures show no short-term inflation, and have calmed the markets somewhat, and we’ve recovered a little bit of the ground that was lost over the last week. I don’t think we’ll see the record-low rates that we’ve seen recently; but interest rates are still incredible, and now is not the time to be a “fence-sitter” or to hope for better times.
Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
Talk this week is of why QE2 is having precisely the opposite effect of what was desired. Discussion has centered on: 1. The “buy on rumor, sell on news” syndrome, and 2. The notion that the economy is doing better.
The problem with almost all analyses is that the bigger picture is being missed. What is probably happening is that anyone with significant wealth sees that it is more rewarding to invest capital in China and India, where there is significant potential for economic growth and the reward that goes with such investments.
If this is the case, then the problem is much worse than what is being discussed. Investors are saying, “U.S. Treasury, 10-year yields at 2.5 percent to 3 percent, stick it. I am investing in China.” The general impression that the U.S. government really does not have an answer to its fiscal woes creates additional doubt regarding the U.S. economy. QE2 is being perceived with thinking akin to, “If you guys have to try this, then you are in worse shape than we thought.”
Steven Levitt

Steven Levitt

Vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago
With the volatility in the market, investors will be bargain hunting for stocks as well as bonds, keeping rates unchanged for the short term.
Chris Sipe

Chris Sipe

Senior loan officer, Embrace Home Loans, Frederick, Md.
Disappointment in the Fed’s recent actions, continued economic turmoil in the European Union and surprisingly positive economic data here have made the markets extremely volatile. There is good reason to believe we have seen the best rates ever, but I expect rates to stabilize and remain at these levels while the market seeks longer-term direction.
John Walsh

John Walsh

President, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn.
Rates should remain steady in the coming week.
Tommy Xintaris

Tommy Xintaris

Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
Since Nov. 5, the FNMA (Fannie Mae), 30-year, 3.5 percent coupon has lost more than 200 basis points. QE2, as expected, has seriously put a hurtin’ on mortgage rates. However, in the week to come, I am expecting rates to gain a little back as the market is in an oversold position.
 

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