Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

 
Panel Prediction
Up Down Unchanged
21% 16% 63%
 

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.

For the coming week, (Sept. 30-Oct. 6), 63 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points); 21 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise; and 16 percent think rates will fall.

Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.

Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Barry Habib

Barry Habib

CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.
Rates have been dropping, but may move a tad higher, short term, before making another move down.
Tommy Xintaris

Tommy Xintaris

Senior mortgage consultant, Houston
Last week, pricing improved slightly. This week, I’m forecasting a spike in mortgage rates since mortgage-backed securities markets have been trading above their 25- and 50-day moving averages for the last seven days.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Greg McBride

Greg McBride

CFA, Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Any disappointing economic data will increase the odds of Federal Reserve quantitative easing and pull mortgage rates lower.
Holden Lewis

Holden Lewis

Senior reporter, Bankrate.com
Long-term interest rates have gone down because of the Federal Reserve’s jawboning. They’ll go down further if the Fed actually does something, like buying billions in Treasury securities.
Dan Green

Dan Green

Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati
A stronger dollar helps mortgage rates drop.
 
 

Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?

Michael Becker

Michael Becker

Mortgage banker, Happy Mortgage, Lutherville, Md.
Mortgage rates are currently at the lower end of their recent range. I expect mortgage rates to stay low as economic data, like this week’s consumer confidence number, continue to show weakness. Interestingly, over the last five weeks, the best day to lock in your rate has been either Tuesday or Wednesday. I will be watching to see if this trend continues.
Kevin Breeland

Kevin Breeland

General manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
We are still in a jobless recovery and the numbers continue to prove that fact. While the stock market and mortgage-backed securities will continue to be up and down based on profit-taking and safe havens, I would bet rates will remain unchanged for the next seven days.
Cameron Findlay

Cameron Findlay

Chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
At the end of the August, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke disclosed the Fed will do “all it can” to rein in prevalent deflation concerns. Since then, rates have risen sharply, then fallen back in some larger-than-desirable magnitudes. This daily rate fluctuation means borrowers need to be cautious of when they lock and should shop the market to ensure they have received a competitive offer.
Chris Karageorge

Chris Karageorge

Senior home loan adviser, Universal American Mortgage Company, Wayzata, Minn.
With no “high importance” market reports or meetings taking place this week, the mortgage market should be influenced mostly by stocks. Still, I don’t see enough movement to affect rates very much.
David Kuiper

David Kuiper

Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
While there are no positive economic reports being released, we are seeing rates having a difficult time going any lower. That’s partially due to technical resistance and partially due to capacity issues, with lenders writing record volumes right now. With a struggling employment picture and weakened consumer confidence, we’ll continue to see rates trade in a very narrow (and low) range.
Dick Lepre

Dick Lepre

Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
Treasury yields and mortgage rates are scraping bottom. We will soon see (at the beginning of November) the first estimate of third-quarter GDP. GDP is largely driven by consumers and the consumer is in a deleveraging mode and lacking confidence in leadership and the economy in general.
The best metric of consumer spending comes from the Consumer Metrics Institute index. It showed consumer spending decreasing starting this January. “Old school” metrics such as leading economic indicators and consumer confidence are seriously outdated. (The) Consumer Metrics (Institute) measures actual Internet sales and reports with a two- to three-day lag. (The) media reporting that “consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped” is rubbish. It unexpectedly dropped for those who believe the 1930s manufacturing-heavy metric makes sense in 2010.
Mitch Ohlbaum

Mitch Ohlbaum

Vice president of business development, Mortgage Capital Associates, Los Angeles
Rates are still quite low. As I write this, the 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.49 percent as it struggles to stay above the key 2.5 percent level. Unemployment remains stubbornly high while large corporations continue to build their war chests of cash at a spectacular rate. They are spending on IT and equipment but there few new jobs in sight.
The Federal Reserve is focused on lower long-term rates and is again considering buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to accomplish this after being out of the market earlier this year. Inflation/deflation also continues to be on the mind of the Fed.
Jim Sahnger

Jim Sahnger

Mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Overall, rates should stay in a similar range to what we have seen the past few weeks.
That said, rates can change both during the day, and day to day. In some cases, they change a lot. When you can lock near the low of what your lender has offered the past month, take it.
 

Promoted Stories