Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (March 11 - March 17) the experts say: Rates probably will rise some more. This week, almost three-fifths of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so. The rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
On March 9, FNMA & FHLMC mortgage rates (required net yields) were within 0.63 percent of the 10-year Treasury -- a record low gap. The belief is that when the Fed exits the mortgage market the gap is likely to return to "normal" and mortgage rates will rise. What is more certain is that mortgage rates will have greater day-to-day volatility unless the Fed has the powers of persuasion to keep its member banks purchasing. In a word, be prepared for a lot more day-to-day volatility than we have had in the past 15 months.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
Homebuyers are out in force. The economy wins. Rate shoppers lose.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
I'm voting for an increase in rates but only slightly. MBSs have traded in a tight range as of late and it stands to reason that the trend will continue. Rates will fluctuate based on several economic reports coming in the next week. The path of least resistance seems to be upward.
Chris Karageorge, MinnesotaMortgageDaily.com, Universal American Mortgage Co., Wayzata, Minn.
New home sales as well as existing home sales have taken a tumble. The stifling regulatory loan approval and funding requirements are simply killing purchase and refinance transactions that would otherwise happen. The cure to the previous predatory lending problems is worse than the disease. The lending system has completely broken down.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
I've been saying this for some time now, as mortgage interest rates continue to remain steady. However, with the Fed soon exiting the market for purchasing mortgage-backed securities and a continual flooding of the market with additional cash, this is nearing an end. Although we can't call when it will happen, we know that it will happen. Now is the time to visit with your local mortgage professional to discuss how today's low rate environment can benefit you.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
The 10-year is currently trading 3.72 percent, which is slightly higher than we saw last week. Rates remain steady even in the face of the Fed backing out of the market as it is clear there is plenty of money on the sidelines to pick up the slack as has been seen in recent weeks. The U.S. remains the best and safest haven for investments. Don't expect too much movement in rates in any direction.
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
Mortgage rates have been remarkably stable over the last few weeks. With a relatively light schedule of economic releases I expect mortgage rates to hold steady over the next week.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
I say unchanged, but volatility has re-entered the rate arena. While we normally try to keep these up and down calls to a few basis points, unchanged for me this go round is within an 0.125 percent. All risk is on rates starting to edge higher with little opportunity to improve. Best advice, lock early.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
The Fed is nearly done with mortgage-bond purchases so the tables will turn soon, sending mortgage rates higher. It may not happen overnight, but expect a pickup in rate volatility very soon.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
The Federal Reserve will stop buying mortgages within three weeks. Afterward, expect mortgage rates to rise and fall in big waves, rather than the ripples we've seen in the last months. When people say rates will be volatile, that's what they mean. The general rate trend will be upward, with many ups and downs along the way.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.