Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Feb. 4 - Feb. 10) the experts say: If rates don't stay the same, they'll probably rise. This week, the panelists were equally split among those who believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next week or so, and those who believe rates will rise. Another 14 percent predict that rates will fall.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily stochastic technical of the 30-year Treasury bond future is about to downcross (or will have downcrossed by the time your are reading this). This means lower prices and higher yields for about three weeks, BUT the weekly has upcrossed and we will have a rally in about three weeks when the daily and weekly are upcrossed to bullish (higher prices, lower yields).
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
Jobs data drags down rates.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Huge news is a 3 percent drop in rate for a true jumbo fixed, now at 5.85 percent for a 30-year fixed. Maybe alternative mortgage markets (to Fannie and FHA) are opening up a little. Fannie is waiving appraisal requirements on some refinance transactions. Fannie and FHA are waiving the 90-day hold on property flipping. Home equity lines of credit are coming back as well.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
MBS prices have bounced between the 200-day and 50-day moving averages since Jan. 15, 2010. The highest close price was $101.03, which happened on Jan. 21, Jan. 29 and Feb. 2. The lowest close price was $100.53 on Jan. 19. In interest rate terms, this equates to a change of about 0.25 percent. I still think rates could increase as we approach the end of the Fed's MBS purchase program March 31, but the hope is that the market can make it another week.
Chris Karageorge, senior home loan adviser, Universal American Mortgage Co., Wayzata, Minn.
I'm hedging my bets this week. While I'm saying unchanged, it's only due to the ability of rates to hold on in the face of my belief they should be heading higher. Friday we get the payrolls number and unemployment report. This could have a huge impact on rates if employers show they are hiring. The ADP report showed that employers shed less jobs than anticipated, which "could" potentially bring a positive number on Friday. If so, look for rates to head higher also.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
I'm anticipating a better-than-expected unemployment report on Friday, which could lead to higher rates in the near future.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
Despite some recent positive economic reports (+5.7 percent GDP) I think the economy is still extremely weak. Consumers are still continuing to deleverage or pay down their debt, and unemployment. This will keep economic growth anemic at best. This will keep mortgage rates low despite predictions of higher interest rates. Given how much they have come down in the last few weeks, I don't see them dropping from their current levels. For now mortgage rates hold steady.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
The direction of mortgage rates over the next week will hinge on Friday's employment report. Fewer job cuts or a hint of job growth will push rates higher.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
There's a risk that the January employment report will convey positive news when it is released Friday morning, and that would cause mortgage rates to rise. But I think it's a slight risk, not a major one. Rates will begin to rise later this month or in early March as the Fed exits the mortgage market. But for now, the Fed's impending withdrawal doesn't seem to be affecting rates.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com, North Palm Beach, Fla.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.