Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Jan. 14 - Jan. 20), the experts say: Mortgage rates probably won't go any lower. This week, 36 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 18 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The daily tech of the long bond future is bullish (higher prices, lower yields) while the weekly is still mildly bearish. While this pattern normally does not produce a substantial rally, it did the last time this happened and I would put my chips on it taking the 10-year yield down below 3.5 percent again. In the longer term, it remains to be seen what Treasury and the Federal Reserve will actually do regarding FHLMC/FNMA debt at the end of this quarter.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage Inc., San Francisco
Up for the next couple weeks. The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.72 percent and there are some huge auctions coming up this week. Remember the Fed has been the big buyer of Treasuries and mortgages to keep the market moving and the rates low. The Fed has made it clear that they intend to slow down their buying and allow rates to rise slightly. While it will be gradual, I do not see rates making any big moves down. My advice, lock those rates!
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
A few weeks ago I stated rates would drop ... we have seen some of that last week and this week. Going forward, I look for them to hold, but all the economic news is producing some of the strangest reactions ... so one more week with rates holding where they are.
Kevin Breeland, general manager, Residential Mortgage of South Carolina, Mount Pleasant, S.C.
As home sales and refinances continue to slow because the banksters are being disingenuous about granting credit in general and mortgage approvals in particular, you'll see more pressure on the Fed, Fannie and Freddie to subsidize rates and keep them down. If mortgage rates are allowed to move up by even 0.75 percent, housing is completely dead again.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Interest rates have recovered slightly from recent "highs" and should remain stable in the near term. Going into earnings seasons with continued economic concerns will keep money in mortgage-backed securities (perceived safe-haven) for the time being. That being said, the pressure is building for rates to rise, so now is not the time for complacency. Be sure that you are communicating closely with your mortgage professional for your personal, unique situation.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Markets move into wait-and-see mode on the economy and the Fed.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Uncertainty about the economy and the future of the Fed's mortgage purchases will hold mortgage rates in check.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Maybe I'm wrong and this won't happen in the next month, but it will happen within the next three months.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.