Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Nov. 19 - Nov. 25) the experts say: Well, rates aren't going down. This week, 45 of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. None think rates will fall, and 55 percent predict that rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
We got a technical break when the daily formed a bullish divergence, which is a powerful tech indicator. This will last until Thanksgiving. The weekly is still bearish and will drive rates higher next week. The longer term picture is still ugly for mortgage rates if the Fed really does stop buying agency paper at the end of 1st Q 2010.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
The malls are empty and so are calls for higher rates.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
Rates continue to remain very favorable and will remain so for the near term. Recent reports and Fed commentary show that there is not an immediate threat of inflation, the archenemy of bonds. As soon as we have a hint of inflation or some consistent positive economic news, you can expect rates to rise quickly and without warning. This, combined with the fact that the government purchases of mortgage bonds (is) being wound down, make now the perfect time to lock in a historically low interest rate whether you are buying, building or refinancing. These will be days we look back at years from now, glad that we took advantage of these rates when we did. Schedule some time with your local mortgage professional to see what this all means for you.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
For the last few weeks I have voted for either rates rising or holding steady, yet mortgage rates have dropped to six-month lows. This is not supposed to happen once a recession ends and a recovery begins. I think this is because the bond markets believe the recovery, if it does materialize, will be very weak. As long as unemployment remains high, I think that sentiment will continue. I'd like to vote for lower rates, but given how much they have fallen recently, I just don't see them getting much lower. Rates hold steady.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Even though rates are unnaturally low, as Dan Green suggested last week, I'm not convinced that unemployment is going to improve over the next couple of months. The recent decrease in anticipated housing starts is not too encouraging for the economy either.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
Mortgage rates aren't likely to move much during the holiday season, but the risk is to the upside. Look to lock at these levels.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Simple: When mortgage rates hit historic lows, they'll bounce back up.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.