Mortgage Rate Trend Index

Panel prediction

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.

This week (Nov. 12 - Nov. 18) the experts say: Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall further. This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Just 9 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Experts' commentsPanel
The daily tech is bullish while the weekly and monthly are bearish so there is little to draw from those. On a longer time scale than we address here, there are two massive issues. The first is the toughening of FNMA underwriting which goes into effect on 12/12/2009. Maximum debt ratio will be 45 percent allowing to 50 percent with strong compensation factors. This will, presumably, make FNMA paper more attractive to investors. But the Federal Reserve is sticking with the story that they are going to stop buying FNMA/FHLMC paper are the end of 1stQ2010. That will cause a significant spike in rates at that time.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
This economy is in such great shape I think rates will remain flat.
Bob Moulton, president, Americana Mortgage, Manhasset, N.Y.
Mortgage markets are unnaturally low right now.
Dan Green,, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
HARP and HOPE NOW that Uncle Sam stops throwing good money after bad for these well intended, but failed initiatives. Besides owner-occupied purchase mortgage tax credits, money can be more productively spent on tax credits for investors to absorb the 5 million to 10 million vacant homes in the U.S.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
The mortgage bond market has been very volatile in recent days, with some pretty wild swings in pricing, but we keep settling in the same range. Rates will continue to remain very attractive in the near term, with continued economic news being negative (favorable for mortgage interest rates) and continued good activity with government bond sales. With the first-time buyer and move-up buyer tax credits being extended, the pressure to close on a new home by Nov. 30 is over, but please don't get complacent about the low rate environment we are in today. See your local mortgage expert now to explore what buying, building or refinancing looks like for you.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
Bond markets are discounting a U-shaped recovery or even a double-dip recession. That is the reason bond yields and mortgage rates have stayed low despite the rally in stock and commodity markets. Until the employment picture improves, I expect mortgage rates to stay low.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
Bankrate's analystsPanel
Mortgage rates will inch higher but remain within striking distance of record lows.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst,
This week's drop in rates is a temporary blip.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter,

About the Rate Trend Index surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.


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