Mortgage Rate Trend Index

Panel prediction

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.

This week (Oct. 22 – Oct. 28) the experts say: This week, 55 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 12 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
Experts' commentsPanel
The trend is not your friend. Lock your mortgage rates, folks.
Dan Green,, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati
After experiencing some wild trading over the last week, mortgage bonds have settled down for the time being. Positive earnings and hints of inflation (bad for rates) are being tempered by a brutal employment outlook and struggling housing market (good for rates). Remember, once we see any concrete evidence of inflation rearing its ugly head, the low-rate party is over. Be sure to get with your local mortgage professional to investigate if buying, building or refinancing makes sense for you to take advantage of now.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.
It has been reported that property values are going down another 10 percent. Home sales are soft. Refinance loan applications are down. Look for lots of government incentives for mortgage refinancing and for investors to absorb the millions of vacant homes across America. This solves two problems: First, property values will find a bottom sooner than later. Second, John Q. Taxpayer -- aka "the one who nobody is bailing out for his responsible behavior" -- will feel appeased.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
Tech will drive Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher for as long as 10 weeks. Nothing gigantic, but enough to annoy.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco
As the Fed continues to back off and ration out its mortgage-backed securities purchases, the lower demand combined with still enormous supply will cause home loan rates to move higher.
Sue Woodard, business development consultant for Lakeland Mortgage in Minneapolis
Look for rates to trend higher as the market continues to prepare for the absence of the Federal Reserve as buyers of mortgage-backed securities.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
Bankrate's analystsPanel
Mixed economic news will keep mortgage rates in check.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst,
Rates have achieved an equilibrium.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter,

About the Rate Trend Index surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.


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