Mortgage Rate Trend Index
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.
This week (Sept. 24 - Sept. 30) the experts say: Rates aren't going anywhere soon. This week, a strong majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. The rest are evenly split among those who think rates will rise and those who predict they will fall.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
The down cross in the daily tech did not lead to higher yields as I forecast the last few weeks. The weekly has remained up crossed and I was incorrect in believing that the daily down cross would send yields up. The daily down cycle is more than halfway through and the weekly is still bullish so let's say flat for now and maybe lower in 2 weeks after both the daily and weekly are bullish.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco
The latest estimates are that 3 million new foreclosures will be coming up for sale. With fair and poor credit borrowers being completely locked out from having mortgage credit granted and a dysfunctional appraisal system, our government has a one-button answer for everything ... the interest rate elevator.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.
There remains a lack of data for any clear trading direction, meaning rates have remained fairly stable. As we approach the end of the fiscal year and some government funded programs expire, the focus remains on the $1.25T in (mortgage-backed securities) purchases expected to be realized by the end of the calendar year. The pace is expected to pickup to $30B per week, which is big enough to move the needle and lead to a larger concern: the long-term influence on the mortgage securitization market. Can it survive without government intervention?
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.
The Fed will continue to focus on influencing lower rates with its MBS purchase program through March 2010. Unemployment is still my main concern while the true impact of the stimulus plan may take a while to be realized by the end consumer.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Raintree Mortgage, Las Vegas
The Fed stated they will taper mortgage-backed securities purchases into the first quarter of next year. Some estimates had called for an increase of 0.5 percent to 1 percent in mortgage rates at the conclusion of the program. The overall trend for rates moving forward though should be higher with a lot of volatility offering higher and lower rates on a day-to-day basis.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
The 10-year is trading at 3.42 percent and continues to trade in a very tight range. The FOMC is meeting and it is widely expected to have no earth shattering news or make any changes. We still see great opportunities to lock in rates if you follow closely.
Mitch Ohlbaum, loan officer, Bank of America, Los Angeles
The Fed announced that they will be slowing their purchase of mortgage-backed securities and extend these purchases to March of 2010. This should help keep mortgage rates where they are for the time being, but once the market starts to anticipate the Fed removing their support of low mortgage rates I expect them to rise. Rates hold steady for now, but you should expect them to rise in 2010.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.
The Fed is going to gradually wean the markets off its reliance on Bernanke's checkbook, extending mortgage bond purchases through the first quarter of 2010. This will help keep rates low and prevents a spike in rates had the Fed stopped cold turkey.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Rates haven't changed much lately when you look week to week. I expect that to continue, at least through October and maybe beyond.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.