mortgage
Mortgage Rate Trend Index
This week (Aug. 6 - Aug. 12) the experts say: Rates are probably just about where they'll be in coming weeks.
This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 31 percent think rates will rise, and the rest believe rates will fall.
Industry experts and Bankrate commentary
| Experts' comments | Panel |
The daily and weekly techs are bullish, indicating lower Treasury yields and mortgage rates. The daily turned bullish July 31. The weekly has been bullish since June 22.
Dick Lepre, Senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage - SF, San Francisco, CA | 
down |
Lately, rate direction hasn't been difficult to follow. In the last six weeks, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been in the range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, which is an exceptionally tight window by historical standards. Our bias this week is toward a flat rate as the market appears to be pricing in the future risk of inflation more correctly than it was last week at this time. This is good news for consumers, because it should help align rates between lenders more evenly.
Cameron Findlay, Chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, NC | 
unchanged |
The first-time buyer market is very active. Move-up buyers and refinancers are now just a trickle again. Option ARMs coming up for reset, negative equity and unemployment are key impediments to a sustained housing recovery. Look for the government to provide funding to buy additional mortgages at lower interest rates.
Jeff Lazerson, President, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, CA |
down |
ARMs get cheap, FRMs stay collared. Plan accordingly.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati, OH |
unchanged |
At some point the reality that the economy is not going to recover in a strong fashion will hit the stock market and we will have a stock selloff. This will cause a rally in Treasury bonds and yields on Treasuries as well as mortgage rates (coming) down. Until this happens, expect the volatility in rates to continue.
Michael Becker, Mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, MD |
down |
Interest rates have seen extreme volatility on a day to day basis and over the course of the last month. In the last month, mortgage backed securities, or MBS, prices have traded in a 200 basis point range +/- or within a .5 percent in interest rate. In the last week, MBS prices have traded within 57 to 97 basis points on a daily basis, meaning rates could change anywhere between .125 percent and .25 percent in a day.
Even with the volatility, rates are near levels seen from the end of June, beginning of July. If the employment report on Friday is better than expected, all bets are off and rates will likely deteriorate, but I think we are inclined to see a little more of the same overall. However, as I have said before, lock when rates work for you. Holding out for better can likely hurt you day to day.
Jim Sahnger, Mortgage Consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, FL |
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The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.76 percent. Even though we are still deep in the recession, the market is starting to smell a recovery and will drive up rates in the short term. In the longer term the market will see the recovery is farther out and rates will come down as we head into the fourth quarter.
Mitch Ohlbaum, President, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles, CA | 
up |
| Bankrate's analysts | Panel |
It will take a bucket of cold water to douse the recent economic optimism and bring mortgage rates lower. It may happen as soon as Friday's employment report or may come from the Fed next week, but until it happens mortgage rates will occupy the upper end of their recent range.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com |
up |
Mortgage rates have been remarkably steady of late. Well, in our weekly survey, at least.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com |
unchanged |
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.