Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for April 18 - 24, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 64% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 21% |
| Go down | 14% |
Here comes another week where you can expect mortgage rates to rise, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 64 percent of respondents predict rates will go up over the next week. Just 14 percent believe rates will drop, and 21 percent expect little-to-no movement in rates.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.33 percent as of April 17, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from last week’s average of 7.08.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of April 18 - 24, 2024
| Go up | 64% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 21% |
| Go down | 14% |
The 10-year Treasury yield is still trending upwards, and the Fed is signaling it needs to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates.
— Allison Kaminaga
Bryant University
64% say rates will go up
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
ortgage rates continue to rise this week as the economy continues to defy today’s high rates. Retail sales is the latest key data point that was much stronger than expected. Inflation is also not going in the right direction, having increased recently. Mr. Powell made it clear in his latest speech that it will take longer than expected for the Fed to have sufficient confidence that inflation is moving back to the 2 percent goal. As such, rates will continue to remain higher for longer.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m expecting rates to rise in the week ahead as the market attempts to find a new trading range following Chair Powell’s comments.
Allison Kaminaga
Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI
I expect mortgage rates to increase this week. The 10-year Treasury yield is still trending upwards, and the Fed is signaling it needs to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates.
Jeff Lazerson
President, MortgageGrader
Up. Inflation continues to stir, CPI, jobs and geopolitical saber-rattling.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Bond yields and mortgage rates are bounding higher due to stubbornly elevated inflation and signs of continued economic strength.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Up. [There is] little expectation that inflation numbers will weaken in the near term.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. The overall trend in mortgage rates has been higher in 2024. Importantly, the trajectory of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has tilted in the month of April with rates rising more dramatically than in previous months. Based on recent economic data coupled with global political instability, I see the overall level of interest rates rising in the near future, [and] rates will rise with the market.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Higher.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Rates are likely to move higher as inflation lingers.
14% say rates will go down
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Performance in the markets the last few days suggests that “higher for longer” is now priced-in. This is evidenced by the fact [that] there have only been slight reactions in the bond and equity markets the last few days. Thus, we should also expect slight to no movement in long-term mortgage rates, making this call a toss-up. Next week, mortgage rates should go down slightly. Call it a feeling.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio
Down. Mortgage rates are way overcorrected. If you have to lock this week, breathe easy — your rates will be lower.
21% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Loan agent, CrossCountry Mortgage , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. The Fed is keeping the overnight rate high in order to fight inflation, but the cause of inflation may well be high deficit spending.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Here's a parody of "In the Year 2525," [by] Zager And Evans in 1969. "In the year 2525, if Jay is still alive, if inflation can survive, they may strive." Inflation and Jay Powell continued to strive for superiority. What happens: no landing, soft landing, crash and burn or a battle between matter and antimatter in perpetuity.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
Unchanged. Markets look to settle after inflation concerns caused yields to spike.