Predicting your car's future value today

Predicting the future is sometimes seen as a fool's game. Who, five years ago, could have foreseen the domination of Apple's iPod, for example?

But when we buy cars, we're in a sense predicting -- or gambling on -- the future: Will the car I buy today hold its value? Will it be reliable? Will I be able to get a good deal when I trade it?

Someone trying to sell a used Hummer H2 during last year's period of high gas prices painfully found out that his or her vehicle, which looked like a good bet when it was new, suddenly lost thousands of dollars in value. On the flip side, someone selling a Honda Civic was sitting pretty.

Oil supply vagaries aside, how can a shopper determine whether one vehicle is likely to retain its value better than another?

One good idea is to pay attention to new-vehicle leases. Inherent in every lease is something called the "residual value," a term that describes the estimated value of the vehicle at the end of the lease. It's usually a percentage of the new vehicle's list price.

Even if you're not thinking of leasing a vehicle, investigating residual values can be a good -- though not infallible -- guide to a car or truck's long-term value.

Residual values are estimated by several auto industry companies, including the Auto Leasing Guide and the Black Book, as well as the leasing subsidiaries of the major manufacturers.

While those values are generally not available to the public -- though your bank, if it does leasing, may have a copy of the Black Book you can peruse -- several Web sites such as LeaseGuide and Lease Wizard offer, for a fee, lease software that includes residual values. Even without access to insider industry information, the Automotive Lease Guide, or ALG, annually publishes its abbreviated list of vehicles with the highest residual values.

For 2007, the car models with the highest residual values in various categories are as follows.

ALG also rated brands that were rated as having residual values above the industry average.

While future market changes can affect residual values, think of this information as yet another tool to help you get the best vehicle for your money.