The signs are all around us, literally — gasoline prices are on the rise again. The latest
Still, we’re a fuel-hungry nation, consuming more than 36.6 billion litres of gasoline in 2006. Perhaps surprisingly, smashing the dollar-per-litre price barrier hasn’t slowed demand: SUVs are still guzzling and 75 percent of Canadians still drive to work. Meanwhile, Imperial Oil Ltd., Canada’s largest oil company, recently reported a 31 percent increase in profits.
So when does healthy competition stop and price gouging start? A
He argues that the oil industry’s explanations for high pump prices — rising crude oil prices, refinery problems and geopolitical events — are merely “after the fact rationalizations for the price-gouging opportunities.”
The Canadian Petroleum Products Institute (CPPI), which represents the gas industry, categorically rejects
And yet, the
“Part of the difficulty, why there is a lot of suspicion over prices, is that it’s a very complicated market to explain,” says Michael J. Ervin, of MJ Ervin & Associates.
Making sense of the oil and gas market
“If an oil company in Canada was to arbitrarily reduce the wholesale price of gasoline to be nice or in response to political pressure, the simple consequence is that all the cheap gasoline would flow into the States,” says Ervin. Pump prices would be at 85 cents, but there’d be no gas to pump.
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What’s more, regional prices are affected by variables such as taxes (for example, provincial taxes vary from 6.2 cents per litre in the Yukon to 20.4 cents per litre in P.E.I.), inventory levels (the eastern provinces can import wholesale gasoline from Europe when supplies get low) and volume of sales (smaller markets often require a higher markup to maintain a viable level of revenue).
On a local level, gasoline price wars are fairly common and their intensity contributes to local pump price volatility: When one retailer lowers the price to boost sales and attract new customers, others must follow or lose volume until prices become so low that gasoline sells for less than cost. Prices then rebound, and customers are left questioning whether this is competition or collusion.
Where are gas prices going?
“I expect to see a modest decrease in pump prices going forward into the summertime,” says Ervin, “but fundamentally they will remain high because of the very tight, if not non-existent, gap between demand for gasoline and North American supply capacity.”
He explains that around the year 2000, the gap between supply and demand lessened until there ceased to be any practical spare production capacity. While there are 19 refineries operating across Canada, that’s 25 fewer than in 1970 and the newest Canadian refinery, in Alberta, started production in 1984. Older refineries require more maintenance and upgrades, which translates to more downtime and a pinched supply.
It is at the refineries, not the retail outlets, says the CCPA’s Mackenzie, where oil companies aren’t playing fair. It’s a classic oligopoly, he argues, where industry members have recognized that it’s in their collective interest to keep capacity down.
“The tightness of refinery capacity has given enormous market power to a small number of companies. They have huge pricing power,” he says. “The fundamental problem is that none of the major companies has any economic incentive to build a refinery.” He argues that if normal refinery margins are 10 to 12 cents per litre with a 2-cent profit, why would any company want to increase its capacity when margins are between 30 and 40 cents per litre?
Increasing capacity, counters Ervin, isn’t easy. The CPPI states that building a new refinery would cost about $2 billion and the refinery would have to meet rigorous environmental standards and public scrutiny. Because fixed costs are high and prices are set on regional and international markets, larger refineries that operate at a higher throughput (the amount of oil refined in a given period) and efficiency are more profitable than smaller refineries. These large refineries are already operating at near or full capacity, leaving prices very susceptible to price volatility.
One thing is clear — gas prices will remain a contentious topic, as much a political issue as a consumer one. Until more cars run on biodiesel or Canadians become less dependent on this liquid gold, demand will remain inelastic, supply tight and prices high. Perhaps the best suggestion is the simplest one: shop around, walk when you can and hope that an alternative to gasoline comes sooner rather than later.
To see whether driving farther to a cheaper gas station will save you money, check out Bankrate.ca’s
Fiona Wagner is a freelance writer in Georgetown, Ont.